OK - just about any numismatic publication you can read has numerous articles about the current state of the coin market. And every single one of them will tell you that the bull market has ended. I don't think anyone questions that. But what they should question is this - when is the time to buy ? In the last bull market we had coins across the board shot up pretty much like they have in the past 8 years. Many may say it's only been 4 or 5 years, but it actually started in late 2000 - early 2001. Be that as it may, many, many coins increased in value anywhere from 300-400%, some even more. But now, for the past year or so, prices have been dropping pretty much across the board. But how far will they drop ? When will it be time to buy ? These questions are important because trying to gauge any bear market is like trying to catch a very sharp knife as it is falling. Yeah, you may catch the knife, but you are most likely to get cut in the process. So I ask you - how low will it go and when will be the time to buy ? Keep in mind - in the last bear market we had, and in the one before that - prices dropped fully 90% and some even more !
Very good question Doug, for me the time to buy is when I see a coin that I realt would like to own and I coudnt previously afford at a price I can now afford. As I am not in it to make a profit I dont mind if I dont get the coin at the lowest possible price, I am happy to get it at a good price (Hope you all understand what I mean LOL) after all if you wait to long the prices might shoot back up :whistle:
When you think the coin offered is a good one at a fair price. Markets go up and go down. Timing markets is difficult work at best, and anyone who thinks they can time the market is fooling themself. Personally, I ignore markets and buy what I consider good coins at good prices and let the rest take care of itself. Then again, I'm a collector with little interest in making money at my hobby -- I just like cool coins....Mike
Well, I think the appropriate time to buy, can not be defined by anyone, but your own self... If you see a coin, that is at a price you like, than it is time to buy. And, in the marketplace today, I see a lot of coins I like, that I see, that are at prices I like... OOOOO there is one now... TIME TO BUY.. LOL I collect for the fun, and by a few things to make profits here and there, and now is a time to be making profits, depending on what you buy... I saw a 84 O DPL63 morgan, go for $158... Saw a MS62 quarter eagle, go for around $350... In the current state of the market, I say, whatever your budget is, is how you determine whether it is time to buy..
If the prices drop very far I will buy more than I currently do mainly because I could afford more. I have came to the realization that the kinds of coins that go up and down in value enough to make real money are out of my reach anyway. Now on the other hand, if silver falls to $6 or $7 again I would probably stock up some.
I think coin collectors and investors have been trying with little success to answer Doug's question since coins were invented. If someone knows, they could make billions off of the book I hope they'd write. Guy~
You should buy what you love at a price you can still love it at. Buying for investment can leave you stuck for decades.
Exactly! I don't think people how just buy for the investment, are "real" collectors I think any "investment" purposes, are just extra, from the joy you get, with coin collecting...Or so I think so..
I also don't buy with the thought of reselling. If it's a coin I want, and can afford, then I buy it. When the coins start selling for less, I do get to afford more than I used to. :smile
i dont buy or sell according to how the market is going. nothing i own is high grade, super rare or exceedingly expensive... so when i want something... and IF i have the money to do so... i just buy it.
It's hard to imagine how I'd buy coins if I were investing in them. I suppose I'd buy like I buy any of my current investments in stock and real estate...and thats consistency. In the same fashion as we hope tpg's grade their coins, consistency in investments is key, I've found. Buy a set amount regardless of whether it's a bull or bear market. Trying to predict the low point to buy and the high point to sell rarely works, or there'd be a lot more filthy rich people out there. For collecting needs, the market trends have never had much bering on buying. We don't wait for milk to drop 5 cents before we buy it, why should we do so with coins? Guy~
I believe there are many factors to consider. First of all, what kind of coins are we talking about? Russian coins, Norwegian coins? They are still going for good prices, and in bull market terrain, as far as I know.... Ancient coins? They seem pretty consistent, I think. Seems to me like many ancient coin collectors are in it for the hobby, most of all. With inflation, I believe we should see a continuous rise in prices for ancient coins, especially Sicilian coins, Roman republic, early imperial and also late imperial period. Byzantine coins seem to become more interesting too. I don't have any statistics - these are just my observations from my own buying. I consider the coins likely to fall are high grade (MS64+) US coins. They seem to be the interesting objects for speculators, as the grading and continuous price registering by PCGS, greysheet a.o. makes the market for these coins more similar to the stock market. Similar to the stock market, investors are not keen on taking risk right now, so i guess some people who have shelled out thousands for "MS68" coins are up for a disappointment. The coins that are most of all likely to fall in price, are common coins, like common date Morgans and such. These are the coins for people with ordinary incomes, who will be hit hardest by the recession, in terms of not being able to afford coins on their monthly budget. Bullion prices will keep these coins from going down more than 60-70 % though. I believe the time to buy is from now on, but carefully, and spreading the purchases over a long period. Coins may continue to go down in demand, but that may also be the case for cash. We may suddenly find the western economy going into higher inflation, which will hit the coin market too. The current rally in stocks shows that quite a few people are eager to downsize their holdings of cash. As we know, commodities, stocks and other assets will rise in (numeric) value if or when inflation strikes. Just my 2 cents. Or øre, that is, I'm Norwegian
Doug, I get asked that question all the time. When should I buy coins in a down market, and what should I buy? Catching the real bottom is like trying to catch a falling arrow, and if you can catch the market within %5 of the bottom your doing a remarkable job. I recommend people that are super serious about investing in coins to cost average to the bottom. You might not catch it at the bottom but you will make money when the market comes back. I have been recommending to people lately to buy nice, honest, no problem coins. (duh, i know right?) But you'd be surprised. These are gonna be the coins that loose the least and come back first. Problem coins in a market like this will be first effected and last to bounce back. In a nutshell, you buy when a good deal comes along, assuming you keep current on the changing market... last years good deals might not be good deals anymore...
Prices may be dropping on MOST coins but they aren't on what I collect. If anything, the prices are still going up, with no end in sight. One coin I want really bad is a Chain Cent but a PO1 still goes for around $1,500 and I don't want a PO1, I want one in the VF-20 range, which is totally outrageous in price and the prices are not falling, they are going up and up and up. I guess I picked an area that doesn't seem to have gotten hurt as bad as other areas but I think that's because those areas were over inflated with their prices and now all that's occurring is a market adjustment to get them where they should have been to begin with. Just my 2 cents worth. Ribbit
I am thinking prices will continue to decline for sometime yet. The so called "recession" is going to get much worse , for many more people . For those that have the financial resources to still invest , are probably going to be doing so in areas other than the Coin market or Paper market. I'm sort of sitting on my hands right now, when it comes to buying and watching the economic indicators and monitoring buyer & seller offerings in the auctions. I wished I had not broken that crystal ball , or kicked my Genie out for non-payment of rent.
