NGC and their unreliability

hypothesis

suppose there are 960 coins. now remember 30 seconds average for each coin is the average time spent for each of these coins. Now if six hundred coins are in such terrible shape that the grade can be seen very quickly, say only 8 seconds per coin. The amount of time left for the other 360 coins would be 440 minutes (6hrs 20mins). this constitutes to an average of 67 seconds per coin.

So in theory if about 2/3rds of the coins are extremely poor condition then there will be more time to grade the good coins.

This is not based on factual numbers.

 

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Have never sent a coin to be graded by NGC, but have purchased several of their graded coins in the past. I had a problem with spotting developing on several of my MS-70 silver eagles and tried to contact them by e-mail about this situation and exactly what does Numismatic "Guaranty" Corporation mean. I got no response from them over a period of several e-mails covering several months. I have since sold all my MS-70 and PF-70 coins and would never pay the inflated price again. I'm sure this company is overloaded with gradings as a result of the T.V. exposure it gets from several of the major shopping channels and according to "them", they are a first class operation and I would not be too concerned about the security of the coins you have submitted.

 

?????

Any TPG can only grade coins at the condition they were in at the time of grading. Many modern US coins develop spotting or toning, sometimes years
down the road. Add to that, enviornmental factors such as humidity, means
of storage etc beyond the control of a TPG. How can you seriously
hold NGC or any other TPG responsible for spots that occur afterwards?

 

Good point!---

Speedy

 

I understand what you are saying about them being professionals, GDJMSP, but I think you were being rather generous comparing them to that group of IMO generally more highly skilled/knowledgable professionals. I think it would be a closer comparison to compare them to another group of professional opinion givers, the weathermen.

Not all pros are "way better" than many amateurs. My bowling average used to be in the 220's, as were quite a few other local bowlers. Yea, the pros are better, but not that much. Car mechanics? Last fall the "real pros" at the dealership wanted $2200 to replace the rotors on my truck (with the same type problematic garbage grade steel ones that had just warped terribly after 18,000 mi). I bought the rotors myself for $420 and had them changed in an evening. As quick? Probably not, but neither am I set up with tools and work area as they are. Worth my effort? You betcha!!! Something about getting paid by the job (or number of jobs) seems to promote finishing "the job" as quickly as possible rather than doing the best job possible.

I mention the above as correlations to my feelings as to the tpgs quality/accuracy with (Civil War) token grading, which is pretty much all I am familiar with of their work. They do not see thousands of each of these, because they simply do not exist. The vast majority of varieties (about 80%) have pops of 20 and less, so if one gets graded, it may very well have been the first one that they have seen, especially since relatively few cwts have been graded. I feel the quality of their work with tokens is about on par with the weatherman's accuracy, maybe slightly better. On the ebay boards in the past, I have brought a number of token slab examples to the board's attention, where even the most adament slab supporters were apalled at the assigned grades, especially from their favorite grading houses. Again, my opinion does not pertain to regular coinage, as I am not involved with collecting that. But as far as cwts, judging from the few cwt slabs out there, heck, I likely own more of them than the individual graders have assigned grades to. Even if in actuality a given grader has examined a greater quantity than I, it is likely a rather marginal number. And evidently they do not have the time to scrutinize them with the love and interest that I do, examining under magnification for slight variations indicating a new variety, comparing with other tokens, noting distinctive features, etc. Perhaps you would consider me rather slow, but I often spend 15-20 minutes of inspection upon initial receipt of a CW token, admittedly very little of it relates to grading however. I guess what it boils down to, with the number of id errors I have seen, if they all too frequently can not accurately tell me what something is, how can I believe their opinion as to its condition?

 

Hey bro, they r the TOP TPG and at least they aren't selling coins like the other top grading co

 

[The whole point of my comments was intended to illustrate the time factor involved when grading coins for those with adequate experience. It simply doesn't take very long.

I would say that the primary reason most collectors seem to think it should take longer is because they are less confident in their own abilities to grade. So they sit and study the coin. So, any of you - all of you - try a little experiment sometime.

The next time you go to grade a coin - force yourself to do so in 10 seconds or less. Look at the obverse, look at the reverse, look at the edge - then write down the grade. Then go ahead and study the coin all you like - for as long as you like. But I'll bet you that 9 out of 10 times the grade won't change from what you decided in the first 10 seconds.[/QUOTE]


Nobody can grade 1000 per day accurately. The fact that the incorrect date was placed on the 1953 Franklin points to that fact. If you think you can do it, then you have some ego. What you say may be true for grading Good, VG, F, XF, AU, Unc, BU, but not for grading 58,59,60,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70.

 

< Just think. In some cases they are spending 14.4 seconds in deciding what is sometimes the difference in several hundred dollars of a coin's value. That is unconsionable. In my opinion, NGC slabs have take on the same value as 2x2s, AirTites, or any other over the counter holder, based on this fact. >

I would assume then that you believe PCGS slabs have the same value as 2X2's as well since they spend just about that same amount of time on each coin graded too.

Speedy, NGC does do those Brilliant Uncirculated (and Almost Uncirculated) for the TV people. Just in case you don't hear back from them.

 

So far they haven't emailed back...I don't like it much that they do it for the TV people that seem to charge too much on coins and rip people off but as I said before...they have to get their jobs somewhere.

Speedy

 

NGC and, I suspect, PCGS send the coins to "Quality Control" after they are graded. The whole point of quality control is to ensure 100% accuracy. Errors don't cost NGC a penny, but they do cost the owner of the coin hundreds of dollars. An error is inexcusable, especially one that is the magnitude of an incorrect date. How could something so blatant get by quality control? The fact that they bb'd a coin as having been cleaned that they shouldn't have, also should never have gotten by QC. I can not believe that anyone experiencing the errors with NGC that I have, would believe a TPG slab holds an ounce of credibility. I believe that their marketing could truely be interpreted by the FTC, whom I will be contacting, as "...false and misleading" adverstising since their determination of a coin's grade is no better than the average (notice I said average and not highly experienced) numismatist.

For no matter how hard you or other collectors find it to believe that a professional grader can grade 1000 coins per day with any degree of accuracy - the fact remains they do it.

Obviosly - they do not! And because of their perceived purpose and self-promoted reputation, they are supposed to.

By the way, please read David Bowers' column in the current Coin World. If I'm not mistaken, he was the founder of NGC, and his current column is anything but glowing.

 

Haven't you ever made a error and later you find out that you were wrong...how did it get pass you the first time....

Right there is a point...now maybe the coin hadn't been cleaned but they must have seen something was looked wrong and made them think it was cleaned...I sent in a coin to ANACS that I didn't think was cleaned and they saw something I didn't---they were right...maybe NGC was right too with your coin.

Speedy

 

< NGC and, I suspect, PCGS send the coins to "Quality Control" after they are graded. The whole point of quality control is to ensure 100% accuracy. Errors don't cost NGC a penny, but they do cost the owner of the coin hundreds of dollars. >

Overgrades CAN cost NGC money if they are later downgraded.

< An error is inexcusable, especially one that is the magnitude of an incorrect date. How could something so blatant get by quality control? >

Simple, the QC inspector KNOWS what the date of the coin is so when he reads the slab label he "sees" what he expects to see.

< The fact that they bb'd a coin as having been cleaned that they shouldn't have, also should never have gotten by QC. >

Bodybagged coins don't go through QC.

 

I think the process of grading 1000 coins per day would be more of a concern except for the fact that each coin is viewed by multiple coin graders. I'm no expert on the process, but as long as there are several pairs of expert eyes looking at it and resolving any differences in opinion, the grading process appears pretty sound to this amateur.

 

My last comment on this subject and then I am done until I get a response from Mark Salzberg.

You guys seem to love NGC, and if you want to spend your money on a slab, be my guest. From this point forward, I will buy only raw coins, that I have an opportunity to look at myself, and grade. If its in a slab, I won't even consider it because there will probably be a premium attached to that slab by the seller, and to me the slab is worthless.

 

Here is an item of relevance as to the value of slabbed coins and the accuracy of grading being done at any of the 3PG services. It is taken from articles written by none other that Q. David Bowers and relates to just how accurate the grading and information on slabbed coins really is. I find it interesting that:
Q. David describes the grading of a coin as “a moving target”. Really! No wonder it's so hard to hit! He goes on to describe why this is so.
* A 1853 Cornet gold $20 dollar eagle was slabbed and graded AU58....It was resubmitted in a short period of time and came back as MS62. (same grading service he was associated with at one time.) A difference of $4,000 in price.
* 1804 Draped Bust silver dollar slabbed and graded EF45...resubmitted and came back as AU58 (in less than a years time. (He commented that if this continues for another 5 years, it could be up to MS65)
* 1796 Draped Bust half dollar went from a slabbed AU53 up to MS62. The difference in price here would sure buy a lot of easter eggs.
* 1795 Flowing Hair silver dollar slabbed and graded AU55 and sold for that price. New buyer resubmitted to the same grading service and it came back MS62. What a way to make a cool $30,000 or more.

Q. David states that most old gold that you now see recently slabbed, and graded “mint state”, would not even be up to AU, 40 years ago. He goes on to refer to this as “grade-flation”. (the way the grading services keep you coming back for more and paying the price. Talk about buying the slab.)

Q. David goes on to describe what he calls “profit centers” This is where the “doctoring” (his words, not mine) is done with application of “toning to AU coins to mask the surface and thereby get them certified as MS". Just how smart are these so called professional graders if they allow this to happen.