What are the odds ?

Put together a little Table - what are the odds of finding a variety (RPM, OMM, DDO, DDR) Lincoln Wheat Variety based on 500,000 strikes per working die. Based on a variety master listing which I put together about 2 years ago combining CONECA, Wexler and Daughtery listings. Certainly been some updates since then but

Date # of Variety Mintage Percent
1909-S 4 2309000 86.6
1909-P 37 100695000 18.4
1910-S 4 6045000 33.1
1911-S 3 4026000 37.3
1911-D 10 12672000 39.5
1912-S 2 4431000 22.6
1913-S 1 6101000 8.2
1915-D 1 22050000 2.3
1916-S 1 22510000 2.2
1916-P 1 131832167 0.4
1916-D 1 35956000 1.4
1917-P 1 196429785 0.3
1917-D 1 55120000 0.9
1918-D 3 47830000 3.1
1919-S 1 139760000 0.4
1919-D 1 57154000 0.9
1921-S 1 15274000 3.3
1922-D 1 7160000 7.0
1923-S 2 8700000 11.5
1924-S 3 11696000 12.8
1924-P 3 75178000 2.0
1925-S 12 26380000 22.7
1925-D 3 22580000 6.6
1926-P 1 157088000 0.3
1927-P 3 144440000 1.0
1927-D 4 27170000 7.4
1928-S 6 17266000 17.4
1928-P 3 134116000 1.1
1928-D 5 31170000 8.0
1929-S 10 50148000 10.0
1929-P 3 185262000 0.8
1929-D 3 41730000 3.6
1930-S 21 24286000 43.2
1930-P 8 157415000 2.5
1930-D 8 40100000 10.0
1931-P 2 19396000 5.2
1931-D 1 4480000 11.2
1932-P 1 9062000 5.5
1932-D 1 10500000 4.8
1933-D 6 6200000 48.4
1934-P 21 219080000 4.8
1934-D 18 28446000 31.6
1935-S 4 38702000 5.2
1935-P 12 245388000 2.4
1935-D 8 47000000 8.5
1936-S 1 29130000 1.7
1936-P 61 309632000 9.9
1936-D 14 40620000 17.2
1937-S 16 34500000 23.2
1937-P 33 309170000 5.3
1937-D 24 50430000 23.8
1938-S 7 15180000 23.1
1938-P 14 156682000 4.5
1938-D 27 20010000 67.5
1939-S 7 52070000 6.7
1939-P 60 316466000 9.5
1939-D 3 15160000 9.9
1940-S 45 112940000 19.9
1940-P 69 586810000 5.9
1940-D 17 81390000 10.4
1941-S 31 92360000 16.8
1941-P 30 887018000 1.7
1941-D 32 128700000 12.4
1942-S 47 85590000 27.5
1942-P 19 657796000 1.4
1942-D 37 206698000 9.0
1943-S 30 191550000 7.8
1943-P 35 684628670 2.6
1943-D 107 217660000 24.6
1944-S 61 282760000 10.8
1944-P 17 1435000000 0.6
1944-D 112 430578000 13.0
1945-S 64 181770000 17.6
1945-P 57 1040515000 2.7
1945-D 68 266268000 12.8
1946-S 135 198100000 34.1
1946-P 78 991655000 3.9
1946-D 126 315690000 20.0
1947-S 30 99000000 15.2
1947-P 8 190555000 2.1
1947-D 19 194750000 4.9
1948-S 45 81735000 27.5
1948-P 1 317570000 0.2
1948-D 24 172637500 7.0
1949-S 50 64290000 38.9
1949-D 38 153123500 12.4
1950-S 74 118505000 31.2
1950-P 3 272635000 0.6
1950-D 38 334950000 5.7
1951-S 49 136010000 18.0
1951-P 8 284576000 1.4
1951-D 82 625355000 6.6
1952-S 50 137800004 18.1
1952-P 3 186775000 0.8
1952-D 119 746130000 8.0
1953-S 54 181835000 14.8
1953-P 1 256755000 0.2
1953-D 83 700515000 5.9
1954-S 49 96190000 25.5
1954-P 1 71640050 0.7
1954-D 39 251552500 7.8
1955-S 35 44610000 39.2
1955-P 19 330580000 2.9
1955-D 59 563257500 5.2
1956-P 16 420745000 1.9
1956-D 144 1098201100 6.6
1957-P 42 282540000 7.4
1957-D 168 1051342000 8.0
1958-P 18 252525000 3.6
1958-D 120 800953300 7.5

 

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That is impressive and a great start! How did you account for coins being lost to attrition?

 

He doesn't. What he is trying to extrapolate is the odds that a 1909-S is a die variety. The coins lost to attrition should be the same percentage as minted and therefore, the remaining coins are still the same percentage.

The problem I have is the 500,000 assumption. It may well be accurate for some years, but, as a for instance, the 1909-S VDB had 4 known dies with a mintage of only 484,000. And that leaves 1,825,000 for his 4 varieties of 1909-S. At 500,000, the 4 varieties exceed the total production of this coin.

 

Oh, I see now. Thanks

 

Could you spell it out a little better I have trouble

Could you spell it out a little better I have trouble with math.
Several points to consider though right away.

How do you combine three different attributer's data without overlap?
Many dies only struck a few thousand coins - the 1955-P DDO-001 is one as I'm sure the 1958-PDDO-001 is also.
Are proofs figured in?
In most of these years for a die to hold up to 500,000 strikes is not very feasible.
Are you asking about the odds if all coins have survived? Or?
If you could simplify your formula for me it would help.

For instance in 2009 the odds of finding a 55 DDO #1 in remaining circ. wheat bags/rolls would probably be at least a million to one.

 

Posted this once - not sure where it went??

Column 1 - Date of coin
Column 2 - Number of different varieties (OMM, RPM, DDO, DDR) based on a cross referenced variety master listing I put together 2 or so years ago combining Wexler, CONECA, Daughtery, Cherrypickers, Breen, Crawford, Potter files. Not sure as of the exact date. After going into the scrap metal business several years ago coupled with farming and other life responsibilities; I sort of drifted away from coin collecting. Easing back into the hobby now.
Column 3 - total mintage figures for each coin.
Column 4 - ((number of varieties x 500000/total mintage) x 100. The 500000 figure was based on the old rule of thumb put forth by Mr. Snow (I believe) of Indianhead Cent fame as the approximate number of strikes for a working die before being retired.

The table isn't intended to be an exact representation of the odds but does provide a general treasure map so to speak.

 

Hi,

I see what he is trying to do but I agree with Rim's cents. The assumption of 500,000 coins struck per working die causes the rest of the numbers to be entirely up to conjecture.

It's an interesting question but the final numbers as stated above can be way off.

Ken Potter also has files with his own die varieties that are not listed elsewhere and that doesn't take into account the huge number of unlisted die varieties that are out there.

Thanks,
Bill