World Coin Market is Hot ?

Discussion in 'World Coins' started by doppeltaler, Jan 21, 2021.

  1. physics-fan3.14

    physics-fan3.14 You got any more of them.... prooflikes?

    Well... In 2020, Heritage sold 1435 foreign coins (including ancients) for greater than $5000, and 4996 US coins.

    5 years ago in 2016, across the entire year, Heritage sold 1340 foreign coins for greater than $5000, and 6042 US coins.

    10 years ago in 2011, 1094 foreign coins and 6076 US coins.
     
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  3. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Fascinating...so clearly the ratio indicates greater relative interest in World Coins. As GDJSMP has been saying and astute buyers like yourself attest.

    Be interesting to see the trend in 2021 as so many people worked from home in 2020 that many people may have been introduced to various coin/currency collecting items or re-established a lost-love for it.

    I know myself when I've been at home and/or out of work, it's when I've been most active in pursuing the hobby. Of course, not having the $$$ to buy stuff sucks, which is the flip-side to having the time in front of the computer in the first place. :D
     
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  4. physics-fan3.14

    physics-fan3.14 You got any more of them.... prooflikes?

    By themselves, I'm not sure how much those numbers I quoted above really help to prove the point. A better indication might be total $ spent, which Heritage does not make as easy to find.

    For example, in the Heritage sale this weekend, 6 US coins sold for over $1million. The top price for any foreign coin at Heritage this weekend was $720,000, followed by $360k.

    So, the total $ spent on US coins is still staggeringly higher than foreign coins - but I'm curious how that ratio has been behaving.
     
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  5. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Agreed....these online sites have very valuable information. They need to aggregate it and organize it and then use it for the betterment of the entire sector, themselves included.

    If we GROW the pie instead of just fighting over market share, we all benefit: collectors, hobbyists, auction sites, dealers, coin shows, etc.

    Seems like we are only scratching the surface, given the paucity of information I see on activity in our sector. Compared to online gaming, the software industry, and other trade organizations....we really need ANA or PMG or some new group to come in and organize things (also could serve as our state/federal lobbyist advocate).
     
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  6. panzerman

    panzerman Well-Known Member

    Imagine what a FDC AR 10 Taler German States would go for.
    That Tuscany AV 80 Florins is one of the nicest coins from 1800s/ on my wantlist:happy:
     
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  7. panzerman

    panzerman Well-Known Member

    But when you compare all of the current auctions on sixbid site/ there are
    Heritage US/ Ancients/ World
    Stacks US/ Ancients/ world
    Goldbergs/ US and Ancients/World
    Steve Album/ all Islamic World
    CNG/ mostly Ancients/World

    Then we have
    Japanese Auctions/ all World/ Ancients/ Japanese
    Indian Auctions/ India related mostly
    European/ UK (70 auctionhouses) all Ancients/ World


    The results are that most of the planets collectors are into World coinage. And even though we complain about the recent price surge/ they are still way better bargains then overpriced US coins.
     
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  8. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    I can understand "overvalued U.S. market" in 1988-90 during a bubble, or again in 2010-11....but what makes it "overvalued" today, in your opinion ?

    Also, how can the world markets be "cheap" if they have been rising for 17 years ?

    If we are saying world coins are "cheap" compared to the U.S. (relative not absolute cheapness :D ), are we just comparing absolute PRICES and saying world/foreign is cheap...because otherwise how can you compare different coins from the U.S. vs. The World....or even amongst all the world coins ?

    For instance....I can easily compare a Saint or a Morgan (each with 1 ounce or .75 ounces, approximately) of underlying metal and compare them to foreign gold or silver coins with similar content. If a Saint year with 1000 coins sells for $3,000 and gold is $2,000 and the foreign coins in question also have 1000 coins and sell for $2,400, that's cheap.

    Otherwise...how do you compare ? If you're just going by absolute price, then that's like saying Tesla at $400 last March was "expensive" and IBM at $120 was "cheap" by comparison. IBM has done nothing since, TSLA is up 10-fold. :D

    Of course, valuation metrics would have said something different than price on who was really cheap. That's how I can compare an American auto company to a European auto company and say which one is cheap since they're in the same business and produce the same product (a car). How do we do this with totally dissimilar coins in different countries with different investors ?

    Are we just going by a population census or total number of coins to make the comparison ?
     
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  9. physics-fan3.14

    physics-fan3.14 You got any more of them.... prooflikes?

    First - completely forget about the metal content of the coin. For the kinds of coins we are talking about, the half ounce of gold or quarter ounce of silver is completely irrelevant. These coins are not even remotely tied the intrinsic value of the coin.

    THE METAL CONTENT IS COMPLTELY IRRELEVANT.

    The comparison that we are making is the population vs the demand vs the price.

    For example - take this coin here. There are literally 5 known in the world. The coin wasn't even known until 30 years ago! It is gold, about the size of a US dime. I got it for $700.

    If this was a US coin with only 5 known, and especially in gold? Tens or Hundreds of Thousands of dollars.

    JPW702 obverse.JPG JPW702 reverse.JPG
     
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  10. panzerman

    panzerman Well-Known Member

    Yes, we are comparing US coin data with World.

    Take a MS-64 1857-S Double Eagle
    over 2100 known from SSCA wreck
    there are 110 in MS-64 and counting/ these sell for 8K

    Then take the coin I won from Heritage
    AV 2 Doppie d'oro 1626 Piacenza
    only three are known/ it sold for 6500
    If you have Double Eagle date with 3 known/ price would be 1M+++++
     
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  11. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Good example, PF...and yes, I used coins with gold/silver content in my post only because gold in the U.S. is no different than gold in Europe or anywhere else in the world.

    So you got a coin with a pop census of 5...interesting.
    If the coin wasn't even known, then aside from you, who do you think was "demanding" it such that there was demand for the coin ? Like you said, it didn't exist a short while ago.

    Maybe Europe/world coins are so much more bifurcated or segmented than the U.S. market that I am missing something.

    Congrats on the coin, BTW...what country is it from ?
     
  12. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Good example, Panzer....this is a good example and puts the underlying supply/demand fundamentals into clear focus for me.

    I would just counter by saying...are the 2 coins comparable ?

    Double Eagles are well-known to American (and foreign) coin collectors...they were regularly issued for over 50 years....long history of coinsage....SSCA adds another element....1 ounce of gold (is the Doppie 1 ounce of gold ?)...well-known to even non-collectors of the day because they were currency.

    Not sure the same applies to the 1626 Piacenza, but I see what you are saying.

    Maybe they're not cheap compared to U.S. counterparts (if they can be compared as 2 counterparts are) -- or maybe they are -- but they still might be solid investments or speculations with less risk than U.S. coins, that I get.
     
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  13. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    BTW, learning alot about how a non-U.S. market prices coins, appreciate the tutorial, guys ! :D
     
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  14. physics-fan3.14

    physics-fan3.14 You got any more of them.... prooflikes?

    Think about it like this - sure, gold is gold. Gold coins are always going to be more valuable than silver.

    But, you want to know what other coin has a pop census of 5?

    Your favorite 1927D St. Gaudens.

    You think you're ever going to get one of those for $700?

    It has to do with demand - Sure, there might only be 5 of my coin known, but there's also only 5 or 6 people that want it.

    Well, of course the coin "existed." It just wasn't published or cataloged until about 30 years ago. It was actually struck during the US Civil War.

    The demand is coming from collectors of hammered/medieval Moroccan coinage, and especially date collectors of Moroccan gold hammered coinage. There aren't many collectors of such...

    The coin is listed in Krause as "rare" with no other info. To get more info, you have to buy a very, very specialized 3 volume set of books (in french) which catalogue the Moroccan coinage of the era. Not many people interested in this sort of thing.

    Morocco, 1860. Called a "benduqi". Thread about it here: https://www.cointalk.com/threads/when-krause-just-says-rare.320748/
     
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  15. panzerman

    panzerman Well-Known Member

    1927-D = $2.1 M

    I have a MS-66+ 1927 (Philadephia Mint) paid $2100:happy: I love the St. Gaudens design.
     
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  16. robp

    robp Well-Known Member

    I think there's a danger here of trying to apply rational argument in order to make a one size fits all explanation. As an outsider I see Americans wedded to the idea of absolutes - the grade on the label being just one manifestation. Overtime in a sports game to ensure a winner is another. With the grade assigned you therefore have a good indicator of the price a coin will retail at, irrespective of the quality of the contents.

    The US market for US coins is essentially saturated with mostly huge quantities of slabbed coins of a very limited number of coin types due to the short period of its existence. This I think is part of the premium paid for the marginal increases in assigned grade. Sure there are genuine rarities which are priced ever higher because there are sufficient numbers of collectors with the funds required, but for run of the mill types and dates, the sums paid for the labels are to me illogical.

    For world coins, there are signs that US collectors also apply the same conditional rarity logic leading to higher prices. Some auction houses insisting that coins be slabbed prior to sale doesn't help, after all, it is only a different opinion rather than a concrete fact. Go to other countries and the opposite mentality prevails. Those collectors have a vastly greater choice of locally struck material to collect due to the length of time coins have been produced. As Panzerman pointed out, the German states produced huge numbers of issues from the various cities and states. The populations of the various countries are also smaller than the US, so you have multiple reasons for a reduction in pricing pressure. People can collect widely and variously without taking out a mortgage to do so. If an area gets too expensive, try a different one.

    In the UK, the most collected denomination is the penny. However, unlike the US with its 200+ years of coining, I doubt you will find anybody collecting pennies from start to finish. The sheer number of varieties means that collectors naturally choose a period. Saxon and Norman sit comfortably together, but with dozens of kings or archbishops, well over 100 mints, many different moneyers at some mints not to mention varieties, it is an impossible task to complete. Short and long cross medieval sit together. Bronze and copper milled also - this being roughly equivalent to the US period. In the middle you have Tudor and Stuart, which are not so popular with penny collectors due to the reduction in size, plus there is also a much larger number of bigger denominations and size is always popular with collectors. Consequently it is possible to find a popular denomination with genuine rarities that are quite affordable.

    An example to sign off with. This is the complete corpus of first coinage Henry VIII pennies struck under the authority of Thomas Wolsey when he was Bishop of Durham. 7 coins in total, 3 of which have serious issues.
    upload_2021-1-25_1-52-37.jpeg
    My coin.

    upload_2021-1-25_1-53-10.jpeg
    DNW 60 lot 535

    upload_2021-1-25_1-54-35.jpeg
    ex- John Hulett, DNW 24/3/2019 lot 10

    upload_2021-1-25_1-55-22.jpeg
    Stewartby 1581, Spink 28/3/2017

    upload_2021-1-25_1-56-10.jpeg
    Spink 159 lot 58

    upload_2021-1-25_1-56-57.jpeg
    Shuttlewood 107

    upload_2021-1-25_1-57-31.jpeg
    Spink Circular April 1990

    The most expensive one was the Stewartby coin which hammered at £1K in 2017. It is inconceivable that such a rare US coin would sell for so little. I have a couple of unique coins that would grade as dire. Neither cost more than £200.

    This theme could be replicated across the non-US world and beyond because most collectors are spoilt for choice. The anomaly is the US.
     
  17. princeofwaldo

    princeofwaldo Grateful To Be eX-I/T!

    There are three criteria that determine the value of a coin regardless of where it is from:

    A.) Supply in absolute terms.
    B.) Condition of the coin.
    C.) Collector demand.

    It's the last item that is far and away the most important in determining value.

    For US coins, it is primarily collector demand that is driving the metrics both at the top end of the market for super valuable coins that have increased, and everything else that has been in decline now for a number of years as the age of collectors forces liquidations.

    If I were to pick a range of values for US coins that have seen the most depreciation, it would be for those issues that 5 years ago were trading in the $8,000 to $12,000 range. Many of them have gotten absolutely killed since then.

    Conversely, the price range of foreign coins that have seen the most appreciation in this same time frame (some of it abetted by currency exchange rates) would be issues in the $2,000 to $6,000 range, many of which have doubled (or more) in value. More valuable world coins have also done spectacularly well, but there are so few of them worth more than $20,000 that it doesn't really have relevance to the conversation.
     
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  18. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    You would think that the vastly larger number of types of coins might discourage collecting since you have so many to choose from, but it seems to work the other way with people becoming niche investors. I guess they are NOT overwhelmed. And as you state, European countries do have a longer history than the United States (especially if you include ancient empires :D).

    I can relate to that niche collecting interest because I am what some would call a narrow Type collector.

    First, beautiful coins, robp. Congrats and enjoy 'em.

    Second, would you guess there are fewer or more coin collectors in the entire EU/Europe (throw in the UK) than in the U.S. ? Are coin shows as well attended ? Are Ebay or the local mass-internet auction site as well-frequented ? What about the pure auction sites like Heritage, which boasts I think 900,000 users (OK, some of those are non-U.S. but I'll bet the bulk are Americans) ?

    Look forward to your thoughts when you can respond.
     
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  19. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    More demand + Less Supply (variety of coins) = Higher Prices

    Is that it ?

    Are you talking about high-end American coins like Barbers, Franklins, SLQs, etc. ? And at the condition rarity levels ?

    I know there's been weakness at the high-end but I didn't think it was at the ultra-high or top-end since that is pretty much determined by buyers who are price-insensitive. A level or two below that you have well-heeled collectors but who can not write 5-figure checks willy-nilly for lots of coins. :D A few here or there, but not dozens.

    Gotcha.
     
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  20. robp

    robp Well-Known Member

    I have no idea if there are more collectors in Europe collectively than the US. I do think however there are more 'investors' in the US because of the grade/price factor. There is unquestionably greater transparency with the population reports, but these can be misleading for world coins due to the small populations and in my view, a degree of unfamiliarity with the subject material. This is where prices in the US have increased disproportionately for some things. The Commonwealth halfpenny I highlighted earier in the thread is a good example of the label tail wagging the coin dog. As a 'top pop' it was bid up to excessively high levels despite being nothing special. Using that as a definitive 65, you could reasonably argue that the Sheldon scale needs a few numbers of 71 and higher. People can get burned, but for different reasons to the conventionally accepted.

    We don't have the large conventions seen in the US and fewer fairs in general. The typical visitor to a fair will be a collector looking to buy raw coins commensurate with their collecting standards, but will have a good handle on what is good or not. The best coins will usually be placed by a dealer with a customer known to be interested in that field. The well heeled collectors rarely visit fairs, though London might be an exception - I don't go as I can't stand the place!

    To put ebay into context, prior to 15 years ago the number of British coins listed was typically 2-3000 at any one time. As I write, the number listed in the British section is 241,323. Clearly there are a lot more people with an interest in coins, but it is difficult to put a number on how many are actual collectors. Tabloid newspapers regularly hype modern issues with the headlines 'This coin is worth £1000, do you have one?', or similar. Consequently many members of the public think just about every coin in their pocket is worth more than face value, with a lot appearing on ebay.

    The public is less-sophisticated in general wherever you are. It isn't until you start researching a field that you can properly understand what you are buying. It doesn't matter whether a coin is raw or slabbed, the same analytical approach is required if you are going to identify what constitutes a fairly priced example.

    Type collections are always popular for the non-specialist, myself included. By definition they eliminate the monotony of date runs of otherwise identical material, whilst providing visual interest in the multitude of designs.
     
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  21. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    An 80-fold increase in British coins listed ? :wideyed: That is HUGE.

    15 years ago Ebay was still relatively new (launched in 1998 or 1999) but I bet U.S. coins didn't go up that much. Maybe 8-10 fold, I would venture.
     
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