CNG Triton XXIV Results

Discussion in 'Ancient Coins' started by Al Kowsky, Jan 19, 2021.

  1. Restitutor

    Restitutor Well-Known Member

    With respect, this gets said every time this topic is brought up, and yet this situation continues to happen frequently enough that it’s frequently brought up on this forum as a discussion point. I think this assumption needs to be reevaluated, just my 2¢...
     
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  3. pprp

    pprp Well-Known Member

    How would you call then CNG' s approach of buying a coin for 34000 pounds plus fees from Roma while it sold for 38000 francs plus fees in Nomos just a year earlier and then try to resell for 75.000$? The coin has no old provenance. So on one hand we can't buy VF coins with old provenance because the billionaire and his advisor kick everyone out and we can't buy recent find coins because dealers who have a divine relevation buy them hoping to resell for a mark up. I can immediately recognize 4 Greek coins from CNR coming from Roma XX. Probably there are more. This became systematic
     
  4. Volodya

    Volodya Junior Member

    I would call it a calculated risk on CNG's part. If they frequently miscalculate they'll be in trouble; fatal trouble, if they do it often enough.

    I'll relate my own experience. As some of you know, I collect the best possible Roman Republican denarii and fractions. Absolutely no sector of the ancient coin marketplace is hotter these days than that for truly choice RR silver. While clearly I'm not broke or I couldn't collect at all, neither am I independently wealthy. I have financial resources gathered in a lifetime in the workplace. These days I'm able to win upwards of 75% of the few lots I seriously target, although granted I often have to bid a record price to do it. That doesn't "scare" me. I'm not angst-ridden about possibly "overpaying." No dealer is likely to outbid me for stock on coins I seriously want.

    A year ago in New York I bought a coin from NAC that I recognized had been in Alba Longa I a year and a few months earlier. I admired it then, but that was a once-in-a-decade sale with a lot of targets and this coin didn't make my final list. I was happy to get another shot at it and had no qualms about giving the Russos a profit; nor do I have any regrets since.

    Phil Davis
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2021
  5. Volodya

    Volodya Junior Member

    If it's any consolation, as @savitale pointed out, this practice used to be a LOT more prevalent in the days before the Internet gave easy, direct access to all collectors to all auctions.
     
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  6. IdesOfMarch01

    IdesOfMarch01 Well-Known Member

    Let me try to do a little of the math in the transaction to which you refer. I assume that the coin you're referring to is the Dionysos tetradrachm https://www.cngcoins.com/Coin.aspx?CoinID=394182.

    So, Dionysos sells for 38,000 CHF in the Nomos auction in November 2019 at an approximate exchange rate of $1.01 with a nominal 20% buyer's fee. That's about $46,000. In October 2020 it's offered by Roma and sells for 34,000 UK pounds at an approx. $1.30 exchange rate, again with a nominal 20% buyer's fee. That's about $53,000 resulting in a small $7,000 profit to the purchaser in the Nomos auction.

    Based on these events, I would guess that CNG thought the coin was seriously undervalued, missed the opportunity at Nomos, and decided to buy it and list it for $75K. Or maybe they thought the market for this coin had increased significantly in the year since it was purchased from Nomos and consigned to Roma.

    In any event, I would further guess that they might be willing to sell it for a little less -- say, $70K -- a $17K profit -- which, for a high value coin, is far from a greedy profit. If CNG is wrong about the value, they may eventually sell it at break-even or a loss, but they're an auctioneer and retailer, so those are the risks they take. They're at the forefront of price trends in the ancient coin market, and maybe they anticipate a continuing rise in Greek tetradrachms of Dionysos.

    If CNG overpaid for it they won't be able to sell it at a decent profit. Conversely, if the market for high quality ancient coins is continuing to rise rapidly, then maybe CNG made a good gamble.

    Finally, I'll note that a quick ACSEARCH of this type of coin lists three auction sales dating back to 2015, all of whose all-in prices (note that the ACSEARCH price doesn't include buyer's fees) are at, or above $75K. So my guess is that CNG saw a bargain and decided, as an ancient coin retailer, to take a chance on this coin.

    Screen Shot 2021-01-24 at 11.21.45 AM.png
     
  7. pprp

    pprp Well-Known Member

    Of course at the times you refer the auctions had 0% sellers fees and less than 10% byers fees. But dealers want everything to work in their favor.
     
  8. robinjojo

    robinjojo Well-Known Member

    That Chalkidian League tetradrachm is a beauty.

    As for the damage, after looking the coin over, magnified, I think the bend on the obverse and the dip on the reverse at 9 o'clock happened during the creation of the flan. It almost looks as if tongs were used with a little too much pressure on the still hot metal, and that created the distortion. Additionally, if you look at the obverse, you can see how the die shifted during the striking, away from the raised portion of the edge.

    So, I would not call the issue one of damage, but instead a flan flaw.

    Further, any post production damage that would occur to the coin during circulation, given the degree of the bend, would likely have caused part of the coin to shatter, leaving a rough inner core surface.

    Just some idle thought thoughts from an idle mind.....
     
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  9. pprp

    pprp Well-Known Member

    I don't know which part of my post triggered you into writing this analysis. I was actually responding to volodyas comment that if I frequently lose to dealers I should reconsider my understanding of the market. A coin that goes 2 times in major auctions without any advance means that it reached its ceiling. Anyone collecting Mende saw it. Who is the audience this time?

    As a side note, your comparison does not stand as the recent examples you posted are not from the same dies and have provenances back to the 1920-1930. The one I commented is from different dies and most probably comes from a new find of the 80s-90s. And by the way why nobody is afraid to get such a rare expensive and unprovenanced coin when we are preached every other day about anything post 70s getting illegal?
     
  10. IMP Shogun

    IMP Shogun Well-Known Member

    How would you know if a dealer bought @ auction or subsequently purchased it from the party that won?
     
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  11. IdesOfMarch01

    IdesOfMarch01 Well-Known Member

    I absolutely agree with that observation.

    So, as a point of clarification, my purpose was to present some facts about this and similar coins, with some simple financial information, to possibly provide some insight into CNG's evaluation process for acquiring coins for its catalog.

    Of course, individual collectors are free to evaluate the data and reach their own conclusions about the value of CNG's specific coin vis-a-vis provenance and die considerations, but I wasn't making nor implying any specific comparisons since these coins aren't remotely my area of expertise.

    Hope that clarification helps!
     
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  12. Volodya

    Volodya Junior Member

    By the by, your 1st and 3rd examples are actually the same coin, so the 2018 buyer may have gotten a relative bargain.
     
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  13. IdesOfMarch01

    IdesOfMarch01 Well-Known Member

    Thanks for pointing this out -- it further verifies that these coins aren't my area of expertise!
     
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  14. Orfew

    Orfew Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus

    Thanks for this, it gave me a good laugh and brought some memories to mind. One of my other hobbies is collecting Montblanc pens. There is a Montblanc store I used to visit quite often for years. I remember walking up to the door a few years ago in cut off jeans and a t-shirt. There were 2 couples inside in suits. You should have seen the look on those 4 faces as when I was about to open the door a young sales associate saw me and yanked the door open for me. While the 4 were still stunned the young woman greeted me by my last name and asked me if I would like a nice bottle of sparkling water. As I said yes she guided me to one of the 2 chairs in the store told me she would be right back with the water and a selection of the newest offerings. I still get hand-written notecards from sales associates checking in with me to see if I am interested in buying anything.
     
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  15. kazuma78

    kazuma78 Supporter! Supporter

    Genuinely curious, do people collect Montblanc mostly for the name, or how well they write? I've made a few fountain pens but never messed with upgrading the internal hardware and nibs.
     
  16. Orfew

    Orfew Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus

    I collect them. For the quality. I have written with several for more than 30 years with few problems. I have also owned and written with those well over 100 years old as well. Some think they are hyped but in my experience they are worthy every penny
     
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  17. savitale

    savitale Well-Known Member

    Well, of the four coins I bookmarked yesterday as of interest to me in CNGs latest catalog, two have been sold. So I think they are probably doing OK for themselves.
     
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