World Coin Market is Hot ?

I'm not convinced that slabs and labels are solely the cause. I'm watching the Stephen Album auction right now, and they're on Chinese coins - these are all raw, and selling for many multiples of the estimates.

 

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I am very surprised to read about these (raw) coins going for multiples of previous sales price or FMV.

It almost seems like there are more Americans (let alone foreigners) buying these coins than better-known series like Saints and Morgans (admittedly, more expensive).

Almost seems to be the reverse of the U.S./foreign & emerging stock markets !

 

I'm in pretty close agreement.

I believe the world coin market has some more room to grow especially in those countries that haven't been hot yet. Base metal Brazilian coins, for instance, can be far scarcer than the prices suggest. There are still lots of coins that have had almost no bounce and where these coins are choice or Gem BU or even high circulated grades where Uncs are scarce there is still lots of room higher.

 

World coins are still a bargain/ even with todays hot market. Example/ I won a magnificent AV Quadrupla dated 1626 (MDCXXVI) Piacenza Mint/ Odonardo Farnese Duke of Parma/ Piacenza AU-58 for $6500+fees/ only few known/ less then 5.
1933 Double Eagle 21 known and counting 7.3 M
Even a common 1857-S Double Eagle/ thousands in MS from SS CA wreck, goes for more....money.

 

Yeah, but I never even HEARD of that coin you bought and even if I had, we are in the U.S. and more coin collectors (and more $$$) are likely to flow to Saints and Double Eagles or Morgans than some AV Quad, right ?

I get that there are lots of coins that are RARER but that doesn't mean that ther's a market for them, though apparently there is for the coins you guys are buying.

There could be some weird Bolivian gold coin that only has a dozen or so coins made, I'm not gonna care about that compared to a Liberty or Saint Double Eagle.

I guess there is a pretty big group of world/foreign coin collectors because ultimately if the prices were/are rising, it must be because demand is exceeding supply.

I do agree with buying RARE coins because if the supply is limited and they are not making any more of them in the present, that helps the supply-demand situation down the line. That's why I think you see Saints, Liberty's, and to an extent Morgans not afflicted with the same oversupply that you see with pure numismatics like Barbers, Franklins, SLQ's, etc.

 

Its definitely a demand vs. supply issue. Think about it like this - NGC alone has graded 40,000 1908 Saints in 64. If ten more people enter the market for Saints, there will be absolutely no change in value.

Compare that to one of the coins I bought at Stephen Album yesterday - there are 56 examples graded between PCGS and NGC, in all grades. If ten more people enter the market for this coin, its going to cause a *huge* increase in demand relative to supply. (The other coin I bought only has 17 graded, across all grades).

Now, I realize that this kind of coin is going to have a much smaller demand to begin with - but any increase in demand (even a single collector joining the bunch) is going to have a much larger effect on prices.

 

Got it, thanks PF.

What's Stephen Album ? What coin are you talking about here ?

Got it, sort of like what would happen if 10 more billionaires said they all wanted to create a collection of the highest-ranked Saints or Liberty's or even Barbers or Franklins -- demand at the condition rarity levels skyrockets and price must follow.

The coins mentioned are so obscure -- or SEEM so obscure, to me at least -- that you would think it's just a tiny niche that has interest in them. Obviously, I am wrong.

I wonder how well-attended that NYINC show was pre-Covid if there's all this demand for foreign/world coins ? There was about 10-20 tables/booths for foreign/world stuff at FUN last January, but that is maybe 5% of the total booths so it didn't stand out.

 

Stephen Album is a very-well-known specialist in Islamic and Oriental coinage. He has a couple of major auctions a year, and they are always chock full of amazing, unusual coins.

This is one of the ones I bought: https://www.sarc.auction/MOROCCO-Yusef-1912-1927-10-dirhams-Paris-AH1331-PCGS-MS66_i39430592

The problem that FUN and NYINC have always had was that they were often on the exact same weekend. So, all the foreign dealers went to NYINC and all the US dealers went to FUN. NYINC has generally been very well attended, from what I hear (I've never been, although I always bid online on the auctions). Last year, they separated the shows so they were on different weekends, but I don't know how that impacted the attendance.

 

Yes, I recall that last year it was AFTER FUN but I can't recall if it was the weekend after or 2 weekends after to allow for more time. But they were separated.

I know a few of us talked about going and since for me it's a short trip into NYC, I would definitely go in the future if only to check it out and meet with my CT friends.

I think their website is planning on January 2022 for the next gathering.

 

Yeah, I scored three coins from Steve Album auction/ cost me 1600US/ two are unlisted/ thus RRR
Other is a Kidarite AV Dinara Deals can be had....

 

While I would love to go to the show, the biggest reason I haven't is because of the location. New York City is the single worst place I've ever traveled to, and I have no interest in going there again.

I'd love to see the show in literally any other city, and I'd go.

 

You can always stay in the suburbs outside NYC !!

 

That's where I stayed last time

 

Much of the appreciation can be attributed to the weaker dollar on foreign exchange markets.

Even after the precipitous drop in 2020 the dollar is still grossly overvalued, especially against the Euro. That said, I would expect the current trend to continue at least until there is a significant increase in world-wide interest rates.

I tend to doubt there are many collectors of US material who have migrated to world coins simply because the price point seems more attractive. With the possible exception of political affiliation and sexual orientation, there aren't too many other things in life that are as set in stone as the geographic/national interest of a coin collector.

Never the less, anyone who watched the HA sale last week with a discerning eye had to conclude much of the more common material sold for WAY more than it is actually worth. Case in point, this over-graded 1938 Egypt 100 Piastres in NGC MS65. All-in of $1,250 would be more realistic, and even then that's up from a $1,000 a year ago.

 

You may see that soooner than you think from the Federal Reserve.

Well, I'm mostly into silver and gold coins (Morgans and Saints and commemorative) but if I saw something UNIQUE that grabbed me I would have interest, especially if it had a significant bullion content.

For instance, I like the Vatican gold coin and I bought a Czar Nicholas II @ FUN. If I had more $$$, I'd consider buying more of those types and in larger coins.

I saw a 12 ounce gold PF70 UC commemorative for Pope John Paul II but I didn't have $30,000 lying around.

That's what I am wondering about. I keep hearing that there are 2 major factors that account for increased buying activity in our sector, particularly in the lower graded circulated ranks:

• People are getting stimulus checks
• People are at home

I discount the first one because to me, the stimulus checks were basically only able to cover basic living expenses and I really didn't see folks saying that $1,200 could play the stock market. $12,000 maybe but not $ 1,200. The folks who DID use it for that were still probably employed and/or made alot more $$$ and were regular investors with 6 or 7-figure portfolios anyway.

I also think that while $1,200 and other checks COULD buy coins, I don't think that someone who wasn't active before would lose their jobs, get unemployment and/or bonus stimulus checks, and then use it for coins unless they had other savings (unlikely) and/or knew they'd be getting partial salary and/or back to work soon.

The second I think has legs. Especially when I just saw a cover story in the CDN Greensheet (for currency, I think) which said that CIRCULATED (i.e., less expensive) $500 and $1,000 bill prices were up 30% in a few months.

Clearly, either people with a few more $$$ to spend are getting active and/or people with more time at home on the PC are discovering old likes to enjoy.

I wonder if CoinTalk has seen an increase since March 2020 in activity at this site measured in how long people are here and/or posts and/or new monthly members before and after Covid ?

 

There's a huge market outside the US, both in numbers and breadth of material. It might seem like the US is all conquering in collectability, but I suspect that is due to Americans mostly collecting US coins. Every other nation has more collectors of their home coins than foreign ones, so there's no reason for the US to buck the trend. The old world has a much greater diversity of official coinage (which is what a majority of people collect) than the US. So the US has a wealthy population effectively chasing a relatively limited selection of coin types which leads to stratospheric prices.

Here in the UK we have a population a fifth of the that of the US, but our coins have been struck for over 2000 years and the countries around the Mediterranean, even longer. That means you will have greater diversity in the collecting fraternity. You could easily put a dozen collectors in a room and find they had nothing in common - in fact our local club only has a two people specifically interested in the same fields.

However, when it comes to availability, some things are out and out rare and will always fly at auction. Some things are more collectable than others. Pennies and farthings have always been more popular than halfpennies for example, but the latter tend to be much harder to find in good grade because they were the workhorse of the currency.

When it come to rarity, I have a couple dozen coins that are unique or the only one available to commerce. Are they really valuable? Typically no because rarity is not the same as having a collector base. No demand means subdued prices. A lid on prices is partly a function of the ability and desire to diversify into different areas. The 'famous' pieces such as the Petition Crown, or Edward VIII coinage always fly.

 

That's a very interesting observation, and tends to apply here in the US as well, at least at the coin clubs I have been affiliated with. There are typically a handful of paper guys, but almost always with different collecting niches. Among coin collectors, there seem to be more generalists, guys who aren't necessarily type collectors, but who would buy key date coins regardless of series. But aside from that, seems most have their own little collecting world that differs markedly from others in the club.

It has always amazed me how much more desirable British material is than French. For instance, a coin like the one below, struck while France was nominally ruled by the British, is worth less than $6,000 even though it is attributed to Henry VI, the King of England. If I could only get that ugly FRANCE word off the holder and replace it with Great Britain, the coin would likely be worth twice as much.

 

Do you guys who specialize in foreign/world coins find that if you need to SELL that the liquidity is there ? That you can get close to FMV if you need to raise cash ?

And do you have to sell directly to another collector through online sites or can you go to a dealer or LCS ?

 

As much as I hate eBay, for many world coins and medals it is the best way to sell provided you have the luxury of waiting 60-90 days for someone to Buy-It-Now at a decent price.

Wasn't always like that, 20 years ago coins sold at no-reserve auction on eBay tended to do better than Buy-It-Now listed coins because price discovery was so much more difficult for world coins which increased the chance of it selling for more than it was worth.

The markets have always been much deeper for US coins. Unless it is just plain ugly you can generally estimate within 25% of what your coin will sell for. World coins tend to be all over the place for price if it's anything unusual at all.

Selling world coins outright to a dealer provides immediate liquidity, but chances are the price realized will be at least 30% less than if sold at auction either through eBay or an old-school auction house. Even then, has to be desirable material or places like Stack's or Heritage will turn you away.

There are exceptions when using a dealer makes sense, especially for very desirable material. Guys like James Ricks at Atlas Numismatic will pay roughly wholesale or about what he would expect on a good auction deal in Europe, but then only if he thinks he has a guy who will be readily interested in the coin.

Common more pedestrian material is almost sure to sell for a steep discount if it is liquidated in an "emergency" sale to raise cash. Most novice collectors would do better to buy interesting modern bullion coins with a chunk of silver in them than chasing common circulated base metal coins (even if somewhat scarce and hard to locate) especially if there is any chance of a liquidity crunch requiring the immediate sale of the collection.