I was going to post this as part of a response to another thread but decided that perhaps is would get better coverage on its own. Which source is considered to be a fairly accurate, reliable and up to date guide to retail coin prices? This might be internet sources, regularly published media or the guy next door.
The best place I get prices is Heritage auctions. You will get 5 price guides (numismedia and PCGS) plus what their coins really sold for.
An honest answer? NONE IMHO. At work I tend to look at Coin Prices for an "idea" as to what retail is. The boss sets the final price and we will frequently use a combination of Greysheet, Coin Prices, Ebay and Heritage. Depends on the "value" of the coin as well. If someone comes in looking for a BU 1974 Roosevelt dime we practically give it away IF we have one. Someone walks in for an 1893-S Morgan it's a whole different story. THEN we start to do some serious research. Once again IF we have one. To me PCGS is a waste of time in most cases. Sure, I'd love to realize the prices they quote but it is often SO far above what things ACTUALLY go for. One will also find times where "retail" is lower than greysheet. In that case expect to pay greysheet. Redbook is informative - we rarely consult it for prices. We try to look at what the real market is doing and the higher dollar the coin the more research we do. No real set guides for truly tougher coins.
The answer to your question, IMO, varies by the type of coins you're referring to.... Are they widgets -- say a 64 morgan dollar? Are they modern conditional rarities -- say a PF 70 2008 Lincoln? Are they errors -- say a broadstruck SLQ? Are they semi-rare coins -- like a choice 1814 AU large cent? Are they truly rare coins -- say a 1974 aluminum Lincoln? The point being, there's no "one right answer" to your question...Mike
I'm onboard with clembo and leadfoot. Coin pricing, like coin grading, is both science and art. The closer the coin is to a simple commodity, the more reliable the price b/c you have so many data points. Leadfoot mentioned MS64 Morgans. There are millions of 'em and they trade everywhere, so greysheet prices are reasonable for average coins. You can get 'em at Greysheet Dealer Ask all day long. On the other end of the scale... So what happens if you're considering a $20 Libbie PR65 DCAM ? There is no standard price for something exotic. Look at auction records, population reports, price for similar dates... then give it a go. You'll find much variance on the high end. People truly "buy the coin, not the number" at those levels and not all 65s are created equal ! Strong coins bring strong money.
I buy from three local dealers; two are jeweler/coin dealers, and one is a collectible/coin dealer. Jeweler/Dealer #1 PCGS member dealer, price on any item seems to relate to how bad he needs to move it along-- often just under greysheets. Jeweler/Dealer#2 Strict Greysheet for higher value items, better deals on junk silver when he has too much. (also gives me old greysheets) Collectible/Dealer#3 Uses only Redbbook values, and never changes prices. Occasional bargains on such items as war nickels below melt (He also always gives me something to help learn-whizzed coins, old redbook) Everyone seems to have their own business model.
Fair enough, and I would agree. So say you pick each one of the examples you listed 1 at a time. Where would you go to look up the value for each one ?
I too agree with this. So much depends on the type of coins, are you selling, are you buying, where you look, who you ask and on and on and on. What I've always done to find out the APPROXIMATE price of coins prior to going to a coin show is averaging the prices. I make a list of the coins I'm interested in buying. Then make columns for prices and look up the prices in the Red Book, then the PCGS weg site, then ebay, then Numismedia and actually a few other coin dealer web sites. With the Red Book and PCGS I put down about 20% less than they state. I then average all these and the last column is what I may, might, could possilbly find those coins for at a coin show. If any coins are over that, no sale.
To answer GDJMSP's question... Are they widgets -- say a 64 morgan dollar? Greysheet Ask +10% Are they modern conditional rarities -- say a PF 70 2008 Lincoln? Teletrade or eBay archives Are they errors -- say a broadstruck SLQ? I have no idea - I'd start with auction records and add 20% for retail. Are they semi-rare coins -- like a choice 1814 AU large cent? CQR or PCGS price guide Are they truly rare coins -- say a 1974 aluminum Lincoln? Good luck.
I would guess any of the answers above work for me, there is no single source. Knowledge of the market requires constant reading, attending shows and auctions, and a great list of links on your puter. Some coins, truly exceptional can be determined just by the dificulty in locating them or a replacement, the amount of work involved getting them . You name your own price. AU 1926-S Lincolns bid/ask at $58/$63.......they have sold for $150 + (3) times in the last 2 weeks on the bay, you need to know the trends, be able to seperate the shills, and then ......GUESS, lol. For the nicer slabbed stuff, I would say auction archives are my fav
For the retail price, check out a couple of coin shops and a few internet sites. If all of the items you look at are 100% comparable including the raw/slab state, grade, toning, luster, return policy, postage, negotiability of the price, etc..., then the lowest price is the retail price -- today. Otherwise, it's just an estimate.
I think the retail price can also be somewhat determined on your own wallet (as a buyer of course) and how bad you want with how long you've been looking for it.
just a couple things to add: 1) the red book has its uses for retail pricing, most notably on colonials. I was startled the first time a big time dealer asked me for the red book to look up the pricing data on a colonial. After that I realized that it is the standard pricing data available for them and if you are retailing that type of material it is the right guide to use. (who knew?...) 2) for esoteric things (VAMs, patterns, early US coins by die variety, etc.) the price guides in the most recent edition of the standard refernece for the set are good guides. So for patterns the Judd book is useful, etc. 3) auction prices realized are not the be all end all for retail pricing. The reason is that dealers are frequently bidders in auctions and they wouldn't do that if they thought that the coins would all sell at full retail. They bid because they know some of the peices will not be seen by the right buyers and they can purchase them at a level to still make money. The proof of this is to watch an auction live. A fair number of the floor bidders will be dealers. This is not to say that auction data is unreliable, it clearly IS reliable, just that some coins sell better than or not as well as pre-auction estimates and some of that is based upon who the buyers are.
Right on Chris, this is a " retail " thread and I neglected to recognise what you pointed out about the auctions.
