Well we had our annual 2-day show in K-Town this past weekend, lots of folks say 350 to 500 came through. There was a lot of tire kickers wow! Even the mom and pops who usually spend only about $40 to $75 were not buying. It was sort of sad and discouraging indicating real concern for the economy. Many people were talking about this financial market as a "perfect storm" we have not even begone to see the full effects of. Now I am not one of those "buy ammunition and run out in the street" people at all, far from it but it makes a body wonder, and worry some. People were bringing in nice stuff though like full sets and such and they were getting good money for them. Silver was being bought at 9.9% but it was not being sold very much at all. I don't even know about gold except proof 10th oz. were bringing $85 wholesale to about $95. I thought my gem Lincoln's would go good but it was not the case, maybe next month. Paper was dead as doornail from what I saw but I really did not pay attention. People were not buying modern singles at all. To sum it up the buying and selling activity was down about 45% from last year. I really don't know about this so called "perfect storm" people were talking about but I do know that our new president as far as I can see has done virtually nothing else but work on the economy so it must be very serious. Don't at all want this to be a political thread just thought I would give you'all my observations of the coin market in K-Town 1st weekend of Feb. 2008. Ben Peters home of "The Knoxville Coin Show"
I agree the economy is causing problems all over. The president does need to quit screaming doom and gloom all over the airwaves as this tend to keep the little guy from buying. Ice
Tire kickers be damned. People are still buying IF the seller adjusts to the current market. Those with a 2008 mentality will sit by and watch the action. That may mean lowering prices and tightening up grades, but to move inventory in this market, you must be realistic and be willing to adjust. OR You can wait for the next bull run and hope for the best, the head in sand method. I choose the former.
Based on the coins that I bid on in the Long Beach Auction, I didn't see any softness in the market. Now I know that I bid on the crazy rainbow toned coins, but from what everyone has always told me, these are the coins that should suffer in this type of market. I have been told for years that the toned coin market is inflated and is going to crash and the moon money that myself and others pay is going to drop like a dead bug. I don't know when this is supposed to happen, but I can say it has not happened yet. Let us take a look at two of the coins I bid on last week. First is a 1945-S NGC MS67* Jefferson Nickel with a Numismedia Wholesale price of $56. I bid $1100 (($1265 w BP) and the coin sold for $1300 ($1495 w BP). That price is over 25X wholesale. http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=1122&Lot_No=7914 The second coin I bid on was a 1923-S NGC MS64 Peace Dollar with a Numismedia Wholesale price of $260. I bid $850 ($977 w BP) and the coin sold for $900 ($1035 w BP). Over 4X wholesale. http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=1122&Lot_No=9374 I have no doubt that the economy will have a serious impact on the coin market, but I don't think it has fully happened yet. My guess is that common material will suffer first and high quality eye appealing items will be the last to feel the effects. JMO.
Interesting thread. I came from the other direction. The poor economic outlook got me interested in junk silver and bullion, which got me hooked on coins. I would have thought that the show would have attracted some potential safe haven investors--who are potential new collectors.
I don't think we've seen anything yet. But it's starting. When real estate crashed, when this downturn started some segments stayed hot and are still hot, some crashed early, others took a while. In the early stages a lot of sellers wouldn't accept that prices were coming down and held their asking prices, all of a sudden their property just did not sell. Look at some segments, some coins just aren't selling, some are red hot (Copper seems to be doing very well), some have taken huge hits (SLQs) The whole numismatic field isn't going to fall 50% in one fell swoop. Some coins will hold up OK, others will crash hard. I see some dealers on another board talking about lower grade keys getting ready to tumble badly (It's starting already). I bet the following coins are going to take big hits in most any circulated grade, and these are all coins that are expensive, yet easy to find and have been swept up in the recent Bull Market. 1885, 1886 and 1912-S Liberty Nickels 1932-S and D Washington Quarters Key date Barber Quarters Mercury Dimes, especially the 16-D, 21s too Key date Walkers, esp the 38-D, these won't be selling for $85 in VG for long Key and Semi-Key Standing Liberty Quarters, esp the 1916 (I know of a bunch of these that the same dealers have had for months and months) S-VDBs, 14-D Lincolns. XF+s I bet hold up, but the VG/F coins won't hold a lot of value. Like Jack drilled into my skull, why spend $1k on an F when an XF/AU is $1500? Modern silly grade stuff, MS70 ASEs, stuff like that Coins that are genuinely rare ought to hold up fine, I don't see things like TRULY Mint State Capped Bust Halves crashing, TRULY Original skin and solid VF+ Barbers crashing, etc.
It is a matter of playing it smart. Sure a lot of the "mom and pop" buyers are feeling the crunch. Hell, I'm one of them. A smart dealer is going to take a smaller percentage profit to keep these folks buying. The bigger buyers are still buying and even if you have to drop the percentage there a few big sales puts money in your pocket. Buy right and sell smart. A dealer that's been around for a while knowss this because they've been through it before. If the key low end grades are not moving and you can afford to sit on them then do so. For those that don't and start selling real cheap I'll be back in the buying game whenever possible. Long term comes into effect both ways after all. FWIW my boss put an NGC VG8 16-D Merc on ebay Saturday with a reserve of $1200. The reserve has already been hit. Still buyers out there folks.
In any downturn the last coins to drop are the exceptional examples. They may show some weakness but will continue to draw fairly strong bids until the end. When they go - everything else has already happened and from then on it is just a matter of degree - how far down the bottom is.
Although dealers would obviously prefer buyers to tire kickers, at least the tire kickers (or perhaps "browsers" would be a less pejorative term?) have enough interest in coins to come to the show. We don't know (and probably have no way to determine) how many of these folks are "regulars" and how many may have been going to their first or second show and will be buyers eventually.
