OLD survey results from PAST "unsearched" lots... You see a lot of ads on eBay for "unsearched lots". My contention is that these lots have been searched and cherry-picked many times over. I, too, have a gallon pickel glass jar that is half full with wheaties that were the result of me going through "unsearched" lots. Who knows? Years from now when I am gone, somebody is going to list these very coins on eBay as "Unsearched Lincolns...found in an old man's house!" I was reading David W. Lange's "The Complete Guide to Lincolns Cents" and he published surveys of 5,000 circulated Lincoln cents for the following years of 1937 and 1943. These "unsearched" lot results were from over 60 years ago! Year 1937--1943 1909-P 14 17 1909 VDB 6 6 1909-S 1 0 1909-S VDB 1 0 1910 41 41 1910-S 7 0 1911 26 21 1911-D 8 1 1911-S 7 0 1912 15 23 1912-D 5 1 1912-S 8 1 1913 17 10 1913-D 9 9 1913-S 13 2 1914 24 19 1914-D 2 0 1915 5 8 1915-D 13 10 1915-S 10 0 1916 27 28 1916-D 27 14 1916-S 22 9 1917 53 70 1917-D 54 25 1917-S 64 6 1918 74 94 1918-D 42 15 1918-S 49 13 1919 131 162 1919-D 76 24 1919-S 183 64 1920 93 115 1920-D 54 27 1920-S 104 9 1921 8 23 1921-S 56 5 1922-D 7 4 1923 19 28 1923-S 33 2 1924 21 43 1924-D 4 1 1924-S 45 1 1925 36 59 1925-D 45 10 1925-S 150 7 1926 44 86 1926-D 49 22 1926-S 31 1 1927 40 90 1927-D 49 11 1927-S 83 2 1928 42 104 1928-D 61 13 1928-S 104 9 1929 47 114 1929-D 72 28 1929-S 488 10 1930 34 198 1930-D 88 27 1930-S 315 7 1931 4 16 1931-D 3 9 1931-S 36 0 1932 1 3 1932-D 29 6 1933 2 7 That's enough...years 1934 to present dates of this survey have been left out as you get the point. The 1937 survery was conducted in Salt lake City, Utah and the 1943 survey was conducted in Illinois. Here's what they said over 60 years ago: "As can be seen from the tables, the number of scarce date cents in circulation is rapidly declining. There are not enough desirable Lincoln cents in circulation to justify spending time looking for them...so if anybody else has an idea of going to through the local bank's supply of cents just can forget it." Remember these were searched over 60 years ago. Now even though these results are not scientific, they show how key dates were cherry picked quickly over this 6 year span.
Interesting survey from the past. This does show that there were some cherry pickers at that time. However, it should be noted that most of the S mint coins were found in Utah which is closer to the San Francisco mint. This could explain some of the difference in #'s found between the two areas where coins were searched. Also, with the tough times America was going through at the times of these surveys, it's amazing that the surveys were even done. Times were hard and most Americans were worried about survival, not doing some esoteric collection of coins!
What about the coins that are reintroduced in general circulation buy kids or other family members that are unaware of their value? This alone keeps me looking through thousands of coins every year.
Coins with value are always reintroduced into the population. For instance, not too many people knew (at the time) that the 1914-D was going to be valuable, so it was circulated until someone, perhaps a fellow numismatic, grabbed it and took it out of circulation. Sometimes it ends up here with "Look at what I found?" threads. Does it happen? Sure it does. Does that mean you will have better odds of finding a 1914-D cent in 2005 than 1937??...Exponentially NOT! Take a 1955 DDO Lincoln Cent. They were circulated and people thought nothing of them until word got out that this variety is extremely rare...and valuable to a coin collector! Pretty soon, they all disappearred from circulation and ended up in everything from Whitman folders to certified slabs. As you can see in just a period of 6 years how Lincoln Cents with any value quickly were "pulled" from circulation making the odds of finding one of any decent value, very tough. As for a family member who introduce a collection into circulation. I guess it could happen. After all, there are a bunch of crack-heads that will use any type of money to buy drugs, so I guess it could happen. Keep looking.
Of course, some people took every coin they received out of circulation by throwing them into big water bottles or milk cans or what have you. Those could be "unsearched". The problem is you don't know. The only person who does know is the one who just passed on and the family doesn't know what to do with the big jugs of coins. Do those jugs contain rare varieties? Maybe... The sellers on eBay want you to spend $25 for half a pound of pennies on the off chance that the seller their hoard is "unsearched" and trust that they didn't search the coins themselves prior to sending them to you. So far, I am not willing to pay even $15 for coins whose combined face value is about 70 cents. I guess my point is, it might still be possible to find a hoard that is unsearched but what are the chances that an unsearched hoard has rare coins in it? Rare means rare! That means that even in an unsearched hoard the odds are against you. Finding one still in circulation is even more rare.
I know people that have robbed their fathers collection to go to the carnival. I saw it happen. I once was in a coin shop in downtown Chicago just browsing when a seedy looking character came in and started pulling slabbed coins out of his filthy jacket. The guys behind the counter would give him a couple of bucks and he'd go outside and get some more from his friend. The dealers shuffled their new purchases into the back room and never questioned where the two street people came by such fine coins. They didn't care that these were almost certainly stolen because they were making a killing. I lost all respect for coin dealers that day and haven't been able to trust them since. My local dealer is selling bison coins for 6 dollars a roll. I get them from the bank for two dollars. I know that they are in business to make money and giving out too much information to ignorant people can cost them plenty but nothing says that I have to help them by buying or selling through them. I have a much better method of collecting coins that doesn't screw anybody. In the want ads, I offer to buy entire collections that have coins I want that have either been left by a dead family member or just people that need the money. I tell them to go the the local dealer and get an offer in writing and I'll pay more than he offers them. He offers about 50% of value, I pay 60%. I get rid of the coins I don't need and keep the ones that I do need. It almost pays for itself and everyone is happy. I am simply undercutting the local guy who pretty much screws the local collectors. I don't seem to mind screwing the local deals at all.
Ive seen this myself first hand, fy family owned a carnival when i was a kid, I can remember my mom selling ride tickets in the ticket booths occasionaly pulling peace dollars and morgans allong with silver certificates from the drawer, and replacing them withmodern curancy. But the fact is these coins dont remain in circulation long, they may chang hands once or twice before someone pays attention to what they have in their change
Yeah, I was considering starting my own carnival just to get my hands on some choice coins. Oh not really.
Also, I searched 100 rolls of pennies from my local bank the other day and here is what I came up with. 1-1936 plain 1-1938 plain 1-1941 plain 1-1942 plain 1-1944 D 4-1944 plain 1-1945 S 2-1946 D 2-1950 D 1-1951 1-1952 D 1-1953 D 1-1953 plain 1-1955 D 1-1956 D 1-1957 D 2-1958 D -------------- 1-1950 canadian -------------- S mint marks (I always save these) 3-1969 6-1970 1-1971 1-1972 2-1973 2-1974 -------------- 1-1988 with probable die crack on reverse. (See Photo) and ... 1- I don't know but the date is all but completely gone and the rest of the coin doesn't show much wear. (See Photo) Anyway, that's my results from 50,000 pennies.
