Heritage's Bloodbath at FUN

That $52M needs to be better understood in relation to the number/value of lots unsold.

 

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Yes, solid advice indeed. And consistent. Very similar to the 2008 year-end market report. Read it... and bookmark it !

Here's a quote about the Heritage sale :

"The Heritage Auction, in our opinion was strong and VERY realistic."

Hardly a "bloodbath".

One of the things I take away from the Legend article : this is a great time to be very picky. Always true, but now more than usual.

 

I don't know whether the coin market is strong or crashing. All I know is that prices are still quite a bit higher than a couple of years ago and it wouldn't bother me much to see them fall a bit. I tend to agree with what Laura Sperber said in the article posted earlier in the thread -- "coins are a long term hold." There are several conflicting forces out there. Wealthy buyers have just taken a hit to their net worth, so they might not be in the mood to buy for investment. On the other hand, trillion dollar budget deficits probably have many people worried about inflation, and whatever downturn occurs might not last long when the flight out of the dollar and into things [like coins] begins to accelerate.

 

What knowledgeable investor is going to take their money and invest from Dollars, whatever that means, to coins? At what point has coins ever held their value as an investment?

Ruben

 

They were discounting at the show this weekend and several dealers told me that sales were down.

Ruben

 

It's no secret that when a currency sinks, people normally get around to moving at least some of their money into inflation hedges, including things like art and coins. Since it has been announced that the government will print up as many trillions of dollars as it takes to avoid deflation, it is my opinion that the downturn in coin prices might not last very long. You are free to disagree.

 

I keep hearing that early coppers were very strong, and I have heard that Bust and Seated stuff was strong as well. But I don't collect that stuff so I didn't pay much attention to it.

I did watch some of the Mercury Dimes as I need a decent circulated key date or two, and yes, the 16-Ds were strong, but strong in a sense that no records were shattered from what I saw, at best they were not dropping.

I do know that pretty much every item on my "List of stuff to look at" went for a lot less than either I was planning to spend or what I would have expected it to go for.

Here's some more things I was going to look at while I was down there, all went for surprisingly low money..

http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=1121&Lot_No=6019&src=pr

That was a little light.

http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=1121&Lot_No=5995&src=pr

That was light as well.

http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=1121&Lot_No=6005&src=pr

Very light.

I was planning on chasing down some SLQs that are tough, one of which was that 1916. Now, you can talk about variables of specific coins, but if you look at the previous MS67 FH 1916s that have sold, 2 of those results were THAT EXACT COIN. There's not a lot of full head 16s in that grade out there, I think Jay Cline estimates about 4 or 5 in that grade. The pop reports are full of resubmitted coins.

Plenty of coins brought strong money, but when the vast majority of coins on my little watch list went cheap, it tells me something, one of the things it tells me is that SLQs are getting cheap. Good! This means my dollars go further

 

I don't know but I wish somebody in my family would have bought up some $20 St. Gaudens coins in the 50's. Or any type gold coins for that matter. And some S VDB's while they were at it.

I don't agree with your statement. There are plenty of coins with small downside and huge upside. Somehow I think it would be easier to sell an ounce of gold for 2,000 dollars than it will be to buy one for 2,000 dollars (because they're worth so much less after the coming 4 year print session) down the road.

I think gold will double before most people here get a 100% pay raise. Is that clear enough?

 

Well said

 

Heck,

I wish I had bought SVDBs 5 years ago and so9ld them last summer.

 

That's just terrible.


Oh ya, and you guys are $rich$.

 

we have a show in two weeks here. I'll let you know what they say not that it matters I think we both have similar opinons.

 

"By May 1951 a $2 face value roll of 1950-D nickels was selling for $6."

"....the ever popular 1909-S VDB cent was worth $10.50. A 1931-S cent cost $1.25."

MS 1907 Double Eagle 1956: $145. 2006: $26,500
MS 1842-O half eagle 1956: $40.00 2006: $24,000
MS 1917 SLQ Type 1 1956: $5.50 1996: $300.00
MS 1934-D Peace Dollar 1956: $5.00 2006: $325.00
MS 1889 CC Morgan 1956: $45.00 1976: $3,100 2006: $30,000

- David Bowers

What were you doing with your cash Ruben? Did you do better than that? I wasn't born yet so that's my excuse. :smile


Even if the market 'crashes' for the next 10 years, should we assume that prices we see now would never be seen again? They aren't making these anymore but the number of people is increasing.

If history is any indication of the future, there's a very good chance a lot of todays prices will look like steals, 20+ years from now.

Sure, I guess at the higher levels you see now, there's plenty of room for fluctuations one way or the other. But you know there's cheap deals out there right now that people are going to be kicking themselves over down the road wondering why they didn't buy. It may be a $100 coin. It may be a $2000 coin. Who knows?

I think it's a buyers market right now. Although I suspect things will only get worse and the deals will continue to get better for at least another year. Maybe longer. Probably wouldn't hurt to wait on anything right now and see what happens as we get further in to '09.

 

But remember what a buck could buy you in 1951. Was a $145 dollar 1907 Double eagle a bargin at that price, I don't know?

Like any investment you have to have time on your side. If it takes twenty years to get back to last year's prices that could be too long for some, hence not a good investment. I'd like to see some historical data that shows that coins are as good or better investment than the stock market, real estate, etc. Don't get me wrong some people have made a lot of money with coins, but a lot more have lost money or made what would be considered a poor rate of return when compaired to others markets.

I'm looking forward to the down turn, I have some holes in the albumns to fill. I think right now is to buy quality coins at the best price you feel you can get them at. IMO

 

The buddy of mine that went with me to the FUN show overheard Cline saying there were several SLQs in that auction that he wouldn't touch either due to overgrading or cleaning. Perhaps that might explain fewer/lower bids on these?

 

A house purchased in Brooklyn in 1950 for 24K is now valued down to about $475,000


Don't blink

BTW - check out IBM values...

You make me question your nueronet when you compare coin investments to either stock or real estate. BTW - good luck in keeping a coin for 50 years. As a life long collector, I know the challenge that poses and things I've lost are worth more than anything I've been able to keep.

That is one of the reasons collectibles have value.


Ruben

 

BTW - that is normal grow of Brooklyn real estate. None of that cherry picking &%$ that you did.

Want to Cherry Pick? A building in Greenwich Village was purchased in 1951 for $450 and sold last year for 23 million after being cooped for $950,00 a unit of the 40 units. You can do the math on the grand total.



Ruben

 

Oh - here is another Cherry Pick. A 4 story Brownstone in Park Slope was purchased off the tax rolls of NYC in 1978 for $500, with a 20k loan to renovate from the City. Same home sold 3 months about for $9.275 million

Ruben

 

Oh - and FWIW - I was born in 1963...

 

hooray time to look for the UHR 1908 hahahah. hopefully i will have a big budget in 09 GD we are going to be real champs.