Enough arguing! A Different Look at Grading

Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by mikenoodle, Jan 4, 2009.

  1. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    The question was answered Paul, numerous times. But you are apparently unwilling to accept the answer. The answer is quite simple - coins from different dates and mints cannot be compared because they are not equal - and you cannot compare two things to each to each other if they are not equal. That is the answer. And that is why we have the system we have.

    I have tried to use analogies but that doesn't seem to work. But I'll try one more - can you compare a Cadillac to a Chevy ? A 1957 Chrysler 300 to a 2007 Chrysler 300 ? No, you can't. They are a different as day and night - and you can't compare day to night either.

    Now you can take 2 different 2007 Chrysler 300's and compare to each other because they are equal. And you can compare 2 Cadillacs of the same year to each other, or 2 Chevy's to each other - but you can never compare a Cadillac to a Chevy.

    Same thing with coins.

    And what you are proposing would not be more strict, it would be less strict. For if you were to define what the average strike of a Morgan dollar is - and then grade all Morgans based on that - what you would find out is that all those 65's would become 66's and 67's. And we'd be buried in 68's. For the average strike of a Morgan dollar is really quite poor.

    And this bit about computers, people think machines can do a lot more than they really can do. But some of the simplest thing there are - a computer cannot do. For example - to grade coins a computer would have to be capable of complex pattern recognition now wouldn't it. But do you know that even the most advanced computer when using patter recognition cannot even tell a B from an 8. It is known as the B/8 problem.

    So how in blue blazes is a computer ever going to be able to grade a coin when it cannot do something that a 4 year old can do in his sleep !

    Grading coins requires the ability to think - computers cannot think. They can only compute.
     
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  3. USS656

    USS656 Here to Learn Supporter

     
  4. mark_h

    mark_h Somewhere over the rainbow

    I guess what I don't understand with this whole thread is why it needs to change? No matter what system you come up with the buyer will still decide the final grade and the price they are willing to pay. So the seller(or the tpg) can call the coin anything he wants - as a buyer I set my grade and the price I will pay. Why not make it really simple - all coins are genuine or fake then the buyers determine the price? Why even have a grade? We might as well take out varieties as well - make everything equal. If you are trying to get to a buy sight unseen type system - it won't work. Nobody but me gets to determine what I consider a choice coin. Me - I will stick with ANA grading guides. Yes - my interpretation of it, not perfect but it makes me happy. This is the best comparison I can think of - Paul likes toned coins - great for Paul, but a few of them are way over the top for me. Personally I would not have put them in a PCGS or NGC holder - cleaned or AT. But that is only my opinion and it does not make it fact. Even if you proved to me the coins are NT I still would not purchase a few of them. That is an opinion that can not be built into any grading system you come up with. I still would not buy some of them. That is my opinion and my choice.

    I mean, we the collectors can't get SGS shutdown, the pocket change MS70's graders - even with a new system they can continue to say "we use ANA standards" these coins are MS70. Then as long as people buy them they are doing nothing wrong. But then when they go to sell them - we the buyers - will demonstrate by the price we pay the mistake they made in buying SGS coins. So what? All we can do is try to educate someone?

    I just can't see what the problem is - I mean Doug is allowed his opinion, Paul, Mike(s), Frank(s) and even me. We do not need to agree on a grade eye appeal, cleaning, price or worth of a coin. As potential buyers each of us determine what we will pay. And yes - I may argue with doug or someone else, but we can always agree to disagree. Simple as that. I think sometimes people read too much into a posts tone.

    Maybe someday computers can do some technical grading, but they will never replace my eye. Like others I make my living in the industry and I do not think anywhere down the line will computers have a final say in this hobby - human collectors will. You can not convince me otherwise or even convince me to use open source for business critical needs. That should stir up a hornets nest in general discussion if someone started a thread on it(that is if you made it this far). I can not see someone developing a "technology based grading system" that everyone would agree to use. You will still have the SGS's of the world doing there own thing.

    All of that to say - "I can live with the way things are now". I still like the discussion.
     
  5. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Because if you were to etsablish what the average strike quality is for all Morgans as a whole, and I mean all of them form every date and mint, and then use that as your basis for grading - what you find is that as a general rule they have a lousy strike. This would cause the grades of all those coins out there to go up.

    Why do think MS65 and up cost so much ? It's because there are so few of them out there. So if you lower the grading basis, which is what would happen by averaging, there would suddenly be a whole lot more high grade coins on the market.


    I am well aware of that. But even the best computer cannot tell the difference between a B and an 8. This is a fact. It has always been the problem with optical/pattern recogniton programs and they have not yet been able to overcome it. Don't believe me, check into and find out. Now if they can't do something as simple as that, how do think a computer is going to be able to recognize all the nuances of a coin's design ?

    Instead of telling me that I am limiting my thinking - just imagine that you might be mistaken in yours. It is possible.
     
  6. spock1k

    spock1k King of Hearts

    there are facts and there is trick photography :D
     
  7. spock1k

    spock1k King of Hearts

    hey i got an idea. now you and me agree that a 2008 P and a 2008 D cent are not the same. but what about the different dies ( die replacement) used in 2008 P in theory those should not be the same either. we recognize this when something silly happens like 1955 doubling 1922 no D etc but what about in other cases. i am studying some coins right now where there are 3 bangles but due to die wear they come together and become a bracelet which fundamentally alters the design. so what are your 2 cents
     
  8. mikenoodle

    mikenoodle The Village Idiot Supporter

    This is part of the problem Doug. we're not talking about judging Morgans by the average strike. In fact, that whole bell curve way of thinking is part of the problem as Lehigh has pointed out.

    We're talking about judging Morgans based on the best strike. Using composites was my idea, I am sure there are others, but the idea is to determine what the OPTIMAL strike for a Morgan dollar would be and compare all dollars to THAT. There won't be any flood of high-end coins, in fact there will likely be an adjustment downward in grades for many coins. If San Francisco (as an example, not a statement) coins are notoriously weakly struck, then so be it, no MS-65s at all! I can live with that! All coins from all mints equally judged.
     
  9. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Mike, if you feel I am overbearing and a know it all - sorry about that. I really don't know how else to say things that are factual other than to just say them. And I have repeatedly stated that I am not, never have been and never will be an expert. How is that being a know it all ?

    I gave very valid answers and provided facts for my reasoning. Yet you chose to ignore them for whatever reason. And it is not just my opinion that I have been stating. I have been stating facts, facts that are agreed to and recognized as facts by the greatest numismatic minds we have. People like Dave Bowers, Ken Bressett, Walter Breen, Michael Fahey, Bill Fivavz, James Halperin, Cliff Mishler - I could go on and list another 100 names if you like. But every single one of those people all agree that in order to grade a coin properly that you have to make allowances for date and mint. And that the reason for that is that the coins are not equal so they cannot be judged as equal.

    Now if you wish to think that all of these people are wrong - fine that is your right. But to tell me that I am being overbearing and acting like a know it all because I happen to agree with them - I don't think that's right at all.
     
  10. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    I'm not sure where this idea of a bell curve came from, but it sure isn't what is used. With a bell curve system you take the high and low as the extremes and everything else has to fall in between.

    By separating the coins by date and mint and judging them solely on that you remove any possibility of using a bell curve for you only use the best known for that date/mint. And all of the others don't have any impact at all.

    Then I apologize Mike for I misunderstood you. You have continuously said that wished to form a composite and what is a composite if it is not an average ? That is the part that is confusing me.

    So if I understand you correctly, now, you are saying that you would take the S mint Morgans from say 1879 - 1882, for they are the best struck Morgans there are - and you judge all other Morgans based on that basis. Is that correct ? If it is correct, then I would agree that grades would definitely go down.

    I still do not agree that it would work because it would not be a fair system since the coins are not equal. It would be a biased system by definition.
     
  11. mikenoodle

    mikenoodle The Village Idiot Supporter

    I am sorry if I lost my temper. It should never get personal. I sometimes speak out of turn and I should keep my opinions to myself.
     
  12. mikenoodle

    mikenoodle The Village Idiot Supporter

    A composite is a "total" expressed as a sum of many parts not necessarily belonging to the same coin. You take the best strike for breast feathers, the best strike for talons and arrows, every part is judged against the best strike of any coin in the series.

    No MS-70s under my new system, because perfect means perfect as intended. MS-63 would probably have millions of coins, though.
     
  13. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    No worries, I really don't take it personally.
     
  14. spock1k

    spock1k King of Hearts

    well what about my brilliant idea then? any opinions on that anyone?
     
  15. Lehigh96

    Lehigh96 Toning Enthusiast

    Doug,

    You absolutely can compare a Cadillac to a Chevy. The Caddy is better which explains why it costs more money. Regarding coins from different years and mints, IMO, they are equal. They have the same design and should all look the same. They only look different because one mint did a better job producing the coins than the other. You call it apples to oranges (or other apples), I call it accountability. I can look at a Peace Dollar and make in independent judgment on the quality of the strike regardless of the mint or date.

    I respect your opinion Doug, but in this case you are making this much more difficult than it really is. What I am saying is simply compare all of the strikes from every date and mint to determine what the weak, average, and good strikes look like for the series. If a particular date and mint produced weak strike coins, the grades of those coins would be correctly limited to the lower MS grades. It really is not that far of a stretch. In fact, if they graded that way in the beginning, you would find people who would vehemently oppose grading strike independently for each year and mint.

    Furthermore, just because the so called experts think this is the best way to grade strike does not mean that they are correct. Everyone with an opinion should have the opportunity to have there opinion heard and actually considered before being summarily dismissed.

    We completely understand that you disagree with us on this issue, but by no means does that make you (or us) right.
     
  16. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    OK - so what is your highest grade then ?
     
  17. mikenoodle

    mikenoodle The Village Idiot Supporter

    oh, and by the way... I do understand what the laundry list of authors you mentioned say. You judge each coin by it's date and mint. You look at a coin and say, "well for an 1893-CC, it's a really great strike, even though it's not sharply struck. For what it is, it's a gem." I get that whole idea, it is very specific to each coin.

    I was talking about thinking of coins across a series instead, and the inplications or grading it as such. If you want to point out the pitfalls, then go ahead, but I'd rather for the purposes of our discussion that you do that rather thantell me that that's not the way it is. I know the way it is, and I am trying to think in a different way.
     
  18. mikenoodle

    mikenoodle The Village Idiot Supporter

    I guess it would depend on what coin has the best strike. I was saying that I don't think that ANY coin grades MS-70, and I think that you agree.
     
  19. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Not sure what idea you are taliking about - is this it ?



    I've read it 4 times and I'm not sure what the idea is supposed to be ?
     
  20. mikenoodle

    mikenoodle The Village Idiot Supporter

    spock, we're talking hubs, not dies

    die degradation = lesser grade
     
  21. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Not saying it does. I'm saying your idea does not work because it is not fair, it is a biased system. The system we have now is an unbiased system. And the vast majority of all collectors, dealers, experts - agree with it.
     
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