There's absolutely no chance it's less than 1 mil. That is significantly less than 0.05% of the population.
When using Mint sales, ANA memberships, supply/demand effects on pricing, etc... keep in mind that the original question was about collectors in the USA, and ‘outside forces’, aka people in other countries, affect those figures.
Most of the 10 million collectors aren't looking for a 1950 D nickel. There's enough to supply the demand.
I think we need to differentiate between a COLLECTOR and a SAVER. A COLLECTOR knows the basics of the hobby, a saver does not. A collector knows what G, VG, F, VF, XF, AU, BU, PL, DMPL are. A collector knows what ANA, VDB, SBA, TPG, SLQ, 3-legged, Doubled-die (not double-die) are. A collector knows it's a cent, not a penny. A dollar coin, not a silver dollar (modern of course). A collector knows what an eagle, half eagle, quarter eagle and double eagle are. A collector knows what another collector means when he says "16-D", "Charlotte Gold" and "business strike". A collector knows 90% vs 40%, modern vs classic commem, PCGS vs NGC and what a "branch mint" is. A saver knows you dump your coins in a bucket at the end of the workday and takes it to Coinstar when it's full.
I think you've made a basic math error. You assume that only 75% of the population have heard about coin news. "0.75 * 328.2 million = 246.15 million. Number of people who've heard about coins on the news- 246.15 million." Then you assume that only 30% really care. "0.30 * 328.2 million = 98.46 million. Number of people who really cared about the coin-related news- 98.6 million." So, why did you go back to the original population number and recount those that you already stated didn't hear about coin news? They don't know or care, as you stated. Wouldn't the correct calculation be 30% of the 75%? or 73.845 million. And so on. Then only 20% found something and remained interested brings the population to 14.769 million. If only 15% become moderately seriously the population becomes 2.215 million. Or am I out of my mind? Could be!! lol
We are only talking about one nickels worth of guilt here...If you decide to feel guilty about unequal distribution of coins among collectors, your feelings might cause you to avoid the scarce and rare ones. That would be a shame, but you must do what you feel is right for you.
Collectors? = 10,000,000 + Serious collectors? = 11,842 (*) (*) I don't quite make it into this category; I'm at about 45,221.
Serious collectors can be redefined a number of ways. I'm sure of you put your mind to it you could lose 33,379, then you'd be a serious collector.
I certainly don't want you to feel guilty any longer so all you have to do is give me one and walla no more guilt. Thanks for the post be safe.
US population: ~300M 1% of 300M = 3M 0.1% of 300M = 300K 0.05% of 300M = 150K No conclusions, just in a mood to pick about arithmetic
And as far as guilt over hoarding 1950-D nickels, given their price trajectory over the years, I'd say "nope". The 1965 Red Book lists them at $22.00 in Unc; by 1975, that had fallen to $12.00. I don't have a current Red Book, but Numismedia lists them at around $12.00 in lower MS. $12.00 in today's money is about $2.50 in 1975 dollars, $1.50 in 1965 dollars. So, I'd say don't feel guilty about hanging onto as many 1950-D nickels as you want. But don't count on them as a retirement fund, either.
Geeze, I guess I'd be considered a hoarder as I have many duplicates of key and semi-key Buffalo nickels. LOL