I noticed disturbing trends at a local coin show this morning. 1. I know that prices aren't necessarily stable, but it seems that prices have nearly jumped a grade. AU stuff is selling at MS prices. Fine items are priced at XF prices, and even some lower grade things show the same jump. 2. There's been a similar jump in grading. Coins with no rims graded G or VG, Coins with obvious wear graded BU, items with mottos worn away graded EF, some coins with missing (worn) lettering graded AU, etc. 2. A lot of, if not most, BU/MS items show a lot of damage, i.e., MS-63 and 64 items have enough dings and scratches to make them more realistically a MS-60 or 61, at best. 3. True high-grade MS Shield Nickels, Liberty Nickels and SLQs are selling at almost double Red Book. 4. Lower grade Barber dimes, quarters and halves are plentiful and reasonably priced but there are no true AU+ or BU examples available. 5. The ratio of modern post-1964 coins vs pre-1965 available is nearly 50-50. Dealers are buying so much of the new stuff that I don't see how they can possibly sell it all. None of it, IMHO, is worth anything over face. 6. Many dealers claim that they have "better" stuff back at the shop or store. Why would they bring junk to a show and leave desirable items at home? Maybe this is a local thing but there were about 20 dealers here from about a 60 mile radius and all had the same products. This was in the Pittsburgh area and the dealers were from PA, OH and WV. I have passed on several apparent good buys on ebay in the past month while waiting for this show but it's looking like I could have done a lot better on ebay. If the trends I noticed are accurate then I think that ebay can fill my needs a lot better than the local sellers.
Most small shows I've attended have been disappointments. Now I don't even waste my time, and only go to the larger ones....Mike
We have local show here in our area about every three or four months. I have noticed the grading problem you saw, but the prices are usually higher than on line to include the shipping and handling. The vast majority of the dealers have a large inventory when they arrive and still pretty big when they leave. A good price can occasionally be had, but you really have to know the coin. When I go I usually have four or five coins I'll look at to consider buying, and have done my homework before I go.
I haven't noticed many of the things mentioned above at the shows I attended this year. Maybe with bullion. Seems half the people buying wanted nothing but bullion, so dealers overstocked and overcharged, and people still bought it up. The rest of the inventory was left relatively untouched and prices stayed low, which was good for me. People don't seem to get (non-collecting people anyways) that they are paying 20 or more dollars for an ounce of silver in modern bullion, when they could buy 3 ounces of silver in non-bullion for the same price. And we wonder why investments are tanking! Guy~
Agreed. I'm fortunate that we get three Whitman shows a year in my area. If you are not familiar with them, they attract 500+ dealers. I'm going to kiss off the small and medium shows. Went to one Saturday (30-50 dealers). Mostly I couldn't find what I wanted. The stuff on my wantlist that I did find is overpriced. I use Coin Values as my starting point. The dealers have to come in under that price. Even with the discount most give you the prices are still too high. On one side the dealers obviously have to make a profit. Going to a show costs table fees and transportation. Plus they have to make a livelihood. On the other side in this economy they can't expect the same profit margin as several years ago. Coins have value but they're worthless if they don't sell. I ended up spending $3.00 for some Hawai'i "D" state quarters. Next Whitman show for me is in March. That gives me a chance to save a bunch of money.
It's best to pretend that none of the coins you view are graded. Just look at the coin and determine what you believe the condition is. Then look at the price and determine if you want to buy it or if you think you can negotiate it down to what you are willing to pay. It's pointless to try to talk down the seller's grade.
Perhaps with all of the new folks getting into the hobby, along with a noticeable awareness that the "green horns" will bite at almost anything offered has tempted these dealers to over grade?
Last couple of local shows that I have been to have been like any other, hit or miss. One dealer has fairly graded coins priced right, one is expensive and overgrades.
I attended a small show in Castle Rock, CO last weekend and I did not notice rampant overgrading or overpricing. It looked like business as usual to me.
david: You said "4. Lower grade Barber dimes, quarters and halves are plentiful and reasonably priced but there are no true AU+ or BU examples available." Agreed, that is simple: The seller (to the dealers) are not selling. The available supply has pretty much dried up.
Hello I'm new here. I usually go to several shows a year. The big Whitman show in Baltimore, a small show in Vienna and a medium size show in Annandale, Va. I didn't find much in the March Baltimore show, the same in Annandale just this weekend nor the Vienna. I find bullion is largely overpriced, especially at some local coin dealers shops. Of course I haven't brought much since business is just about non-existent. Oh well Merry Christmas all, Happy Holidays WalterReidCoins
Walter, I see you made it. We met Saturday at Annandale. Fellow Scotsmen (well, at least partially.) Obviously I post under a different ID here than at eBay.
David yes I found cointalk. What a pleasant surprise! I also found coinwants and have listed 5 coins including two MPC's. So far I have viewers on all of them but no bids so far. Hopefully that'll change. I got a response to listing my resume on craigslist. Hope turns out well. So your userid is Kanga? I should have known that was you! Walter
Walter, yep, this is a very nice website. You don't get all the OT chatter that is over on eBay. Pretty much straight coins here. As to CoinWants, I had quite a few Views and even some Watches, but only one item bid on. Make sure you start at your minimum acceptable bid because you won't get a lot of competitive bidding. See you Thursday.
Reply to Kanga Okay maybe my opening bids are too high? Maybe I should lower them and take a chance on one. Well got to go to my chiropratic treatment. Oh if they pay through PayPal I guess we can print out a shipping label like on eBay? Walter
Sorry about that. I sort of knew about the PM feature, but never having used it, it didn't occur to me.
That's mostly right, but the key to what I said was "...no true AU+ or...". I did find several VF and EF examples that were graded as AU. As far as the supply being dried up, that's mostly right, but there are plenty of them on ebay and other auction sites.
