I am wondering if this sounds familiar to others: 30 days out - OMG, I am going to buy SO much. I wonder if the mailman will get a hernia carrying the package! 10 days out - Man, bids are so cheap, I wonder if the bank would entertain a second mortgage for coin purchases! 2 days out - ok, a few are getting higher, but man bargains still abound. I wonder if the spouse will notice... Day before - some adjustments necessary, but still some great lots for the collection Day of - what happened? Did everyone wake up today wanting ancient coins? It's ok, I have a plan on some to pursue. During auction - WTF? Zero for 12 so far, most of my bids are laughable. 5 minutes after auction - yeah, not the auction for me anyway. Not the right material, I am pretty sure a few of them at least were tooled. Besides, auction X is coming up in 30 days, I need to save up for THAT one. THAT one is where I will score. Repeat step 1 on auction X, rinse and repeat. This has been my life it seems for the last couple of months.
These days, I don't even browse the catalogues until the day of the auction itself, but I still seem to go through ALL the stages you described. WTH?
Sounds like you may have been following the Leu? My watch list on that auction was long. I ended up not placing a single bid. Like you say: Repeat step 1. The last ancient coin hasn’t been sold yet.
That's a perfect description! Every now and then, however, there is an extra step, after the '5 minutes after auction' step. When, after the auction, I (with a unhealthy amount of frustration in me) browse various sellers' stock and decide to purchase a coin I have my eyes on for a while but have not pulled the trigger thinking I can get a coin via auction cheaper
I hope you realize that the success of sales depends on many people actually thinking they will have a chance at winning a coin but being frustrated to the point that their contribution is only running up the price paid by the winner. After this happens enough times, many will lose interest and determine that it is a waste of their time and energy. Of course that means missing out on a few coins that no one else wanted. That will tend to drive us to other sources. I preferred the coin show route; others seek smaller auctions no frequented by the people with the money. I recently decided to pay an online dealer more than I wanted to because I have saved quite a bit now that there are no coin shows. This is the system working as intended. The question I see is whether there is an infinite supply of new participants both from the well funded winners group and from the hopeful but mostly unsuccessful group to keep this going or if there is a bubble ripe for bursting. I see no shortage of people with money but more depends on how many people will continue to buy lottery tickets even after they have read the odds.
I'm no ancients collector, but I thoroughly understand cause and effect. Your observations are of a market experiencing a major resurgence in collector interest, attributable primarily to the COVID-driven increase in time available for such activities, and secondarily to a diversion from "modern coins", which seem over-valued, to ancients which seem a better value to many.
Specifically for my own desires Lot 1106 starting price 75CHF current bid 1,300CHF. This game is getting a tad much for me
With a lot of auctions, not much of anything happens until the moment the item comes up for bidding. Then the numbers go into orbit, especially if it's an item upon which I have placed a bid. A number of these bidders will pay far more than if the same item where to be offered on a bourse floor. I remember one time at a Baltimore show where a number of people were commenting about how much some Indian Cents brought in the prior night's auction. I thought, "Gee, these coins must really be hot. I guess I will be priced out of that series." Then I looked at the market in the comming months and years, and not much had changed. The price chugged along or even fell. Some of the auctions give false positives to the true state of the market.
I think this all stems from a fundamental character flaw: self-control. Beat that, and the sky's the limit, at least until the money runs out...
I have lost in a number of auctions in the exact sequence you describe. Those lots I have won I have had to go to several times the starting bid price, and I was in danger of being sniped in the last few minutes until I raised my bid to the point where I would outgun anyone else. Not exactly satisfying but I got some of the coins I had craved.
Leu was NUTS this weekend. People paying more for coins that are -- quite literally -- available at full retail on V Coins for half the price.
Case in point @Roman Collector - the Diocletian Abdication follis that went for $800. I found one on m-a shops (fixed price) for a fraction of that amount.
This is me! When caught, I buy yarn or chocolates. You can see I have been a bad boy. The tray of donuts was a special order for a graduation party that was worth sharing. I am happy when I find one or two coins others do not want as much as me. My goal in an auction is to find one or two pieces I really want and can not find elsewhere. The last two months have placed several pieces I have not seen before offered. I picked up a few of them and feel really good about that. It is pretty common for me to see new cast bronze coins. Fortunately, not too many folks want them.
Yours was from a different mint and, probably most important in this circumstance, not ex-Benito; who a lot of people remember and might want a coin from his collection.