I don't really know much, but here's my opinion. It looks like the bits of patina that do show, are nice and intact, with a decent green color. I think it's common when some of the exposed patina is nice, that the unexposed is nice as well. The dirt looks like it would come off relatively easily, and should not require much harsh tools. Finally, the reverse details looks pretty good, even with the encrustation. Removing the dirt I think will reveal a pretty sharp reverse.
Of what you can see of the shape of the head and hair, it does look like Commodus. Often looks like a young Marcus Aurelius but head stretched taller.