Why is Morgan Dollar numismatic value dropping?

I don't know why the report at the beginning of this line, but I can't get too much out of it since I can't see it. I would appreciate it if I could get the report in larger print or the source so that I can see it. I only have about 25 Morgans. Most of them my father left me. I got an NGC report with the 1882CC, 1883CC, and 1884CC. I got them about 10 years ago and I treasure them. They are all MF65. I have a couple more that are MF63 and MF64. The rest are raw but in great condition. About 8 have some toning on the edges of the coins. I know that many consider toning nice to see. Any source to let me know the effects of toning on the value of the coins? THANX, all.

 

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Sorry for the typo.. I meant MS65 and MS63 and MS64.

 

Not for toning, per se...but you see them fore sale and people buy what they like and looks good to them. The toning will add or subtract depending on eye appeal...AT is too garish a look to me...Spark

 

Because they are super common by all metrics. The trend has been going on for over a decade. The TPG pop reports have made it plainly obvious to the collectors who thinks coins are nothing but a numbers game.

A non-collecting friend was with me at FUN. I showed her a Morgan, and then she was astonished how many there were. That made them super boring in her mind (I don’t blame her; I agree completely). The ancient coins and early US, however, certainly caught her intrigue.

 

Aside from the things mentioned above... a numismatic downtrend in general, how common Morgans are, demographics etc., I'd also like to point out one other fact... gradeflation.

If you look at what a MS65 slabbed Morgan that has been graded in the last 5 years looks like nowadays, and compare it to what a MS65 Morgan looked like in 1989, e.g. when there were a fair amount of them slabbed in the first generation or two of PCGS/NGC slabs, it is obvious that the coins in the newer slabs would generally be graded a point or even two higher than the older graded coins. So a MS65 graded today would often compare with a MS64 of yesteryear.

 

Just asking. What morgan are you thinking about. You might get some pretty good info if you narrow it down some

 

I agree. Thinking newer slabs have seen these coins until someone bumps it up. Then you don't send it to TPGing and sell it

 

I believe there will always be an upward and downward trend depending on the number of people collecting them and the availability of the ones their interested in. I also believe the number of counterfeits is playing a role as well, which is harmful to new collectors who don't know the difference and quickly lose interest.
I believe the Morgan Dollar is the best coin for new people to get into the hobby and sales will pick up. I've found some fantastic buys over the last few years and I'm still looking for more.
I don't worry about market trends to much, I buy what I like and I'm happy with my collection.

 

You mean the somewhat bullish speakers ?

 

History has shown that when there is a bubble, it can often take DECADES for the item in question to base or bottom.

In the case of Morgans, you have 2 silver and numismatic bubbles in the last 40 years whipsawing the sector. Add in the creation of the TPGs and lots of hoards increasing supply, and hyper-volatility has been the norm since 1978.

The excess has certainly been wrung out and we may in fact be close to or at a bottom -- but that doesn't mean we'll be moving up appreciably for a few years.

 

No. The bourse was crowded and busy on Saturday.

 

I guess that could indicate that the public was there and buying.

 

Have to wonder how much is a result of a shrinking population of collectors and how many estate coins are entering the market as a result of older generations of collectors passing on. That and silver stagnating for the last 6 years.

 

But we didn't have the bubbles of the 1970's and 1980's in previous decades. The untethering of gold and the international monetary system led to a 20-fold rise in the price of gold and silver. That is unheard of.

Bear markets ARE usually shorter than bull markets -- mostly because fear is a stronger emotion than greed (Fear won an armwrestling contest ). It takes time to wring out the emotion that led to the bubble.

Ultimately, this is a supply and demand issue wrapped around the price of the metal. Dealers and the hobby can't control the price of gold or silver, but dealers should be able to give good evidence of demand for coins now relative to 10 or 15 or 20 years ago. If an LCS used to sell 50 Morgans a week for both numismatic and bullion appeal and today only sells 20...well...multiply that by thousands and you explain alot of price weakness.

I focus on the macro for coins because I am not an expert on the micro like vets like you, Doug. It would be good to hear honest opions from veteran dealers about supply and demand trends over the years -- and NOT from folks talking their book.

 

This has been a slow decline from a lower high than previous (bubble) highs. There was no big annual declines in the price of the underlying metals or coins.

Also, the price shot ahead from 2000-2011. What were MS65 Saints selling for in 2000, $500 ? They were selling for $2,700 a decade later. That's a HUGE rise !!!

And the price of metals (gold) fell, too. The leverage effect during runups and selloffs of rising/falling metal prices plus rising/falling numismatic interest leads to exaggerated price moves.

What is interesting going forward is this: with the exception of some overpriced stuff on Ebay and other amateurish websites and those TV coin infomercials....price transparency and accurate information is now much more easily obtainable for the average coin buyer (like me ).

The public always gets sucked in by moves in gold/silver or some hot new numismatic issue (SS Central America, 2019-S Reverse Proof ASE). At least now maybe they will be more educated and price moves will be more subdued, fewer losers/suckers buying in at the top, and losses less severe than in the past.

 

Morgan’s, Walkers, Commems are down. US Coin market in downward trend. This trend been going on for sometime. Oversupply vs demand. Buyers flocking to 1 oz silver bullion coins - cheaper, have more silver.

The Silver Mexico ONZA, USA ASE, Niue Star Wars, Somolia Elephant popular sellers.

Have classic US coins seen their day? Or is it exciting buy opportunity? It will take influx new investors with money restart US Coin market.

The Jan CDN showed decreases on Walker and Barber 50c many big ticket MS issues taking hits. Bankruptcies could be on horizon.

 

I think that as education gets worse, interest in and understanding of history and its accompanying artifacts also suffer. And education has been getting steadily worse for decades, just look at me starting a sentence with "and"!
As a counterbalance, the internet and previously mentioned availability of both good and bad information are keeping new people streaming into the lobby of coin collecting, but then how many feel the need to step on the elevator to discernment and refinement of their own hobby is obviously a smaller number.
Silver stackers should have no interest in uncirculated coins or numismatic material that would bring any premium over spot. Wouldn't make any sense to the bottom line.
In conclusion, I'd say that the pool of educated, non-speculative collectors willing to buy high price coins will probably diminish with the baby boomer generation, but that the ultra easy broadcast and production of media will keep beginner interest pretty high. Etsy will do well...

Edit: and I think it's been established that the wealth and ebullience created by the stock bubble in the early 2000s created their own bubbles in many parallel markets, i.e. people went nutso.

 

~5 years ago I sold off my other coins (not a huge collection by any stretch) to just concentrate on Morgans. I was quite taken by the coin.

But when I got back into coins, I haven't bought a Morgan since. I've seen them depreciate, and yes they are more common than one would think. These days I'm more interested in late 18th/early 19th century US coins.