US Coin Market Stagnant

I just don't think I've every heard someone say, "I made excellent buying decisions when I first started collecting." I have, however, heard just about every regular member of this forum state, "I bought a lot of rubbish early on before I learned the pitfalls."

 

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I’ve definitely made a lot of mistakes already, and have learned from those.

Biggest takeaway on eBay is that coins generally sell 25% to 30% lower on auctions vs. BIN. This is due to simple economics of seller initiating a guaranteed sale vs holding out for higher price

For almost all of my purchases I track recent eBay sales history to make sure I am buying in a proper ballpark to what I could resell for in the current market.

However, my intent is not really to resell (though if I really needed to I could).

 

I have this degree you speak of, but YouTube is by far the best source for really specialized knowledge. it may not be 100% correct but gives you a perspective to consider and vet yourself.

 

Yeah sure. Specialized knowledge? YouTube? Are you for real? You’re not only derailing this thread but you’re also misleading newer or younger CT members here. Please stop it.

 

While true, as long as they aren't over extending their budget it matters a lot less for collectors of that age when god willing they have at least another 30 years

It's really just when people call him the greatest collector ever or greatest collection ever that people get worked up. He's certainly made some head scratching moves passing on some truly rare great early coins while spending 300k+ on a top pop Merc, but in the end it's his money and his collection to do what makes him happy. That said major collections often get judged in history by the big rare coins

There's plenty of knowledge there if you know where too look. It's like anything else have to wade through the mud to get to the good stuff.

 

It’s really tough predict coin market one guy I know only spending half of sales on inventory replacement.

My main worry decreasing pop of collectors.

I like buying low or top pop World coins I can find for a fraction of the US equivalent.

 

And you should still embrace books to filter the good info from the garbage. It all looks the same to beginners.

PS, I am 22. I’m younger than you. And I avoid YouTube for coins. That should say something.

 

Ah, yes, 30 years.



By coincidence, the "blowoff top" in "rare" coins hit just about 30 years ago this year. It's the most prominent feature on the chart, and woe to anyone who bought in at that point.

But where's the "bottom" on this chart? The mid-1990s kind of looked like one, but we're approaching those levels again. You can hope that the next stretch of the curve will point upward, but it's just that -- hoping. Not a super foundation for "investment".

 

Stupid chart, always has been always will be in it's current form. The 80s repeating again isn't even possible with the open information of the internet and TPGs. It was a perfect storm where people took advantage

If you remove the one insane never to repeat itself scamming period in collecting history even the bad chart is up from the early 80's and significantly up from the 70's

 

I'm happy to grant that the 1989 spike is a special feature, and ignore it for the sake of argument. I'm not at all confident in the Internet and TPGs as agents of transparency.

Does the Internet render us immune to irrational spikes (or dips) in the price of a good or class of goods? I have one word for you: cryptocurrency.

Removing that one insane spike from the PCGS chart, and focusing on just the last 25 years, what I see is a thoroughly underwhelming performance history. One might almost say... "stagnant"?

 

That's really a beast of it's own too. Asia loves it for whatever reason, everyone else just rides the waves to make money. It's really an outlier given it's ability to generate a lot of wealth while largely avoiding a lot of rules that such behavior would be punished by in the stock market.

If we go by the chart yes which is the flaw of the chart. Over 10 percent of the entire chart are classic commems which I would say have been falling most of that time while others have been rising most of the time. There is also a ton of common stuff and common stuff will always be common barring some crazy roundup and widespread melting of it.

Would I be buying common morgans hoping to get a good return in 30 years no. That said I would be reasonably confident to some sort of appreciation for eye appealing quality better coins over the same period. You would of course almost certainly do better in the stock market with good buys, but it sounds like he wants at least a portion in something other than that and I would have more faith in those eye appealing good coins than a pile of silver.

 

1989 spike due to speculation about Wall Street entering coin investment.

 

don’t forget questionable dealer practices to put it nicely

 

I'd tend to agree with micbraun. I've seen a couple Youtube coin videos and while they looked nice, it's pretty much one person's option which is not subject to any type of peer review.

For US coins, I'd suggest the specialized books on each type. These are at least reviewed so you can see what books are "respected". Of course this costs money. They say "buy the book before the coin". The problem is that one sees a coin and there are claims that it's a great deal: not to ever be repeated so there's a rush to snag it before it disappears.

In a declining market, such as US Coins, rest assured that after your delay to pick up knowledge, you'll see the coin offered again in the future, possibly at a lower price or in better condition.

 

The market for US coins stalled to dropping. The PCGS 3000 graph confirms this.

In my experience - The bigger ticket they are the more harder they can fall. The holder / sticker game won’t save them. “If it’s made of Iron it’s a matter of physics it will sink.” (Movie Titanic). Ditto for US Coin Market and decreasing pop of investor / collectors.

Good time to buy or should one get out?

 

I've noticed many type coins I've gone after have dropped in the last 10 years according to NGCs price guide but some have increased considerably. Are Flying eagle cents included in this chart? In MS they have been climbing as just one example.

 

It just depends on what it is. There are things that are not common that I don't see dropping. It's a huge market. People can pick and choose to talk about any specific part they want but it doesn't encompass everything and wrap it up in a bow. There's just no way. The index tries to do this and I guess it's valuable to an extent comparing it over time to itself. But on an individual basis, it's meaningless. Go to a show and try to talk a dealer down on price because the PCGS index is flat and you think it's going to drop further. You're just going to waste their time and yours. You aren't gonna get something special any cheaper because of this chart.

 

This. The index is atrocious for what is in it

 

It does seem that common Flying Eagle cents have increased in value in MS. A common date: 1858 in MS 64 sells for around $1,500 today. Heritage's oldest sales, 1993, show they were selling for $550 back then: 27 years ago. They seem to have had a big price jump around 2000.

Given their apparent high population I wouldn't buy one for investment. Buy one because you like the type or you think they're neat or something. Also I sometimes wonder if that market can be controlled by dealers.