Are post 1800 World Coin Prices in Decline, Stagnant or Otherwise? A Survey.

When you talk about world coin prices and trends, you really can't make a general statement. It has to be divided by country (and sometimes, even period during that country). Russian coins are behaving very differently than South African, Portugese, Latina American, or Japanese coins. Each region has its own trends, based on its own economic factors. Some regions are hot, some are not.

I'll say for Moroccan coins (the area I focus on), high grade examples are doing quite well, especially crown size material. Any of the smaller coins, or anything not absolutely top quality, is fairly stagnant. I've been able to get some really rare coins (4 known in the world, for example), for prices that would seem insanely low to a US collector.

 

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Thank you @Physics fan 3.14: I am noticing a trend in the response to my original question - high quality coins regardless of country are going to sell for a premium. If the coin also has a low mintage the coin will be priced to reflect that.

Last night I was out bid on two nice coins offered in a Japanese auction. I could not believe the prices. Both coins were the equivalent of MS-64+. One in particular a 1900 (Meiji 33) 20 sen (mintage 800,000) went out at the equivalent of $900. Much more than I could afford.

Thank you to all that have responded. Sullykerry

 

The top is already in for a number of countries. Russia in 2008, China in 2011 in particular. Lots of others are way off their highs, Brazil especially, also Italy dated after 1861. Greece. Portugal. All considerably easier to acquire than they were ten years ago.

19th century British proof gold has had the most recent run, a huge move lasting 3 years. It has now plateaued and likely will drop over the next 2 years.

Egypt, another gigantic run and plateau.

But rare coin prices are a funny thing in that they get excited when precious metals are making a run, which only happens about once every 20 years. Almost like nuclear fission when the metals are melting-upward, the excited electrons smacking into adjacent rare coins and sending them on supercharged price tangents no one thought conceivable only a few months earlier.

We need another inflation adjusted high in gold to really get things moving again, and my unscientific guess is that level is somewhere around $2,400 an ounce.

 

I do not think precious metal prices have anything to do with price trends, that is rare/ high quality collector coins. Mass produced modern proof/ mint sets in gold/ silver are definately effected by metal prices. So, are collector AV/AR coins in lesser quality (Fine-VF), and of course modern restrikes. But, take a common France 1812-A 20 Francs / in MS-66=$6000 VF=$400. I won a Papal States AV Fiorino Di Camera (Pope Alexander VI) in MS quality Sincona Auction last year for 4500 SWfrcs/ same coin had 3 previous auctions tags. In 1936 Berlin Auction it fetched 25RM=$5/in 1955 in US action it got $175/ in 1997 it went for 700 Swfrcs/ 2018 it went for 4500! The only coins that have stagnated are US/ because these where vastly overpriced in 2005 and are now stabilizing. The high quality market will keep on. not enough supply for huge demand.
John

PS: This coin was 9K Swiss Francs in 2005 Tkalec Auction Coin was perfect FDC quality/ a lesser EF ex. sold recently for 25K US FDC one probably would go 60+K

 

To the extent that rising precious metals prices reflect not an increase in the value of the metal, but rather a decrease in the value of the underlying currency it is priced in, the correlation is still there for rare coins (as it is for real estate and anything else priced in the same currency). All of it in a marco-economic sense of course, spanning more than a single 24 hour news cycle.

Agree on the US collector market though. And I think the worst is yet to come for many once highly prized US coins that are less than rare. If you want to pick a canary in the coal mine look no further than classic commemoratives in gold. 66s now available for what used to be 64 money. And if it's impaired, look out, the downside has been nothing short of brutal. Case in point, high relief Saints in details grade or below AU55, worth half what they were 10 years ago.

 

Always look at the "bright side of life." There are some really fantastic coins available to the collector because of the drop in cost. Take advantage of that as a numismatist.

This is simple economics in that so many of the big shooters are leaving this sphere of existence and not being replaced by newbies.

A coin with a million made is not rare; it is common. Condition rarity does exist, it just depends on how much a collector wants to pay for it.

Happy Hunting, and Happy New Year.