Gradeflation or Grade Ratcheting or Both?

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Those numbers from PCGS are wrong. Are we supposed to believe that the number of gold coins graded MS69 jumped from 21 to 106,921 in the span of 3 years without including modern commemoratives or gold bullion coins? That is simply a preposterous conclusion.

My conclusion from those number is that modern/bullion coins are included in the numbers despite the fact that PCGS states that they are not. The only way to glean anything from these numbers would be to show them as a percentage of increase from 2003 to 2006, and then look to see if a pattern emerges. What is plainly obvious is the the highest grades increased at a much high rate than all of the other grades. For example, look at the % increase of the following categories of coins.

8-35: 91%
MS64: 21%
MS65: 25%
MS69: 25,550%
Total: 39%

These numbers tell you nothing about gradeflation and simply show a change in the types of coins being submitted. Moderns and/or bullion submissions increased dramatically

 

Well, I know of Mark Feld who worked at NGC and he never made the claim that the TPGs loosen their grading standards.

As for Skip, if he has evidence, then he needs to show it. And if you have ever had a discussion with Skip on this topic, he refuses to answer direct questions, preferring to obfuscate, crack jokes, and rely on innuendo and emojis. In other words, he won't make a clear public declaration of what you are claiming to be true. If it is common knowledge and everyone but me knows it to be true, what is the harm in saying it?

 

It doesn't prove anything about grading standards. There's no way to know the condition of the raw coins that were submitted and that may have changed from year to year. And I presume the data is raw submissions (some of which would have been crack-outs) and reconsideration/regrading/crossover submissions. Is there any way to know the proportions?

In addition, annual variation in the distribution of coin types and years can affect grades. An influx to a TPG of recently minted coins compared to an earlier year or month might, not surprisingly, result in a greater proportion receiving higher grades. My speculation is that's what happened between Oct 2003 and Apr 2006. The TPGs do run specials from time to time that encourage submission of certain types of coins. Then too, the mintages of modern coins can vary quite a bit between years.

I'm not disagreeing that there has been a loosening of standards, which is only part of gradeflation. I feel it's occurred. But I haven't seen objective proof. A large change in the distribution of assigned grades in different years would be proof only if:

1. the data is for raw coins,

and

2. the distribution of the conditions of the raw coins was the same in the years being compared.

Information on no. 1. above may be available; no. 2. above is unknowable.

Cal

 

Since people like higher grades, how about gradification as in “instant gradification.”

 

Unless you're willing to pay the extra-high prices for walk-through service, there's nothing instant about having a coin graded regardless of outcome.

Cal

 

popcorns ready.....