Are post 1800 World Coin Prices in Decline, Stagnant or Otherwise? A Survey.

Thank you. I hope we keep this thread going as I am and hope others are learning more about coin price dynamics specifically in the non-US arena.

 

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While I'm primarily an ancient/foreign person, I do periodically purchase US silver dollars slabbed. My feeling is you can now have a really accurately graded slab cheep compared to 3+years ago. The top end of the grading scale is still going up on key and semi key coins. A beautiful slabbed US silver dollar for under $200 is out there. I prefer the attached.

 

My perspective of the world coin market is based on my collecting those coins since the early 1990’s. The initial goal was to collect dated coins from each country from as many centuries as possible. My collecting interest evolved to collect older type coins and occasional gold type coins minted before 1950.

My observations and opinions generally parallel Doug’s, with the caveats which follow.

World coin values appeared to increase significantly in the early 2000’s, which happened to coincide with the bounce in silver off a low of about $7 per ounce and gold at about $400 per ounce.

The older world coins have generally continued to increase in value with a few exceptions. For example, non-gold coins of France and the Netherlands have generally not appreciated much the past 18 years. On the other hand, coins of China, Korea, Danish India, French India, Portuguese India, Russia, among others, have experienced periods in the last 18 years of significant increases in value (as in 5 to 10 multiples.)

A possible explanation for the long bull run in world coin values is that one or more countries’ coins have periods of stagnant growth while other countries experience significant coin value appreciation. Unlike the downward trend in U S collector coin values, the overall trend of world coin prices is on the rise.

As for when there will be a downturn, I have no clue.

 

I think there are too many factors to lump all of world coins together. That said, the BRIC countries seemed to have generally rising values over the last 10 years (even after accounting for exchange rates), but it seemed like the fall in oil prices really hit Russian coin values hard. India and Brazil seem to have plateaued, if not retrenched a bit in the last couple of years, but are still quite pricier than they were when I first started buying them.

Chinese coins seem to be on a continuous upward trajectory, with ocassional stalling (especially when government policy encourages bullion buys and drains some of the fuel from that rocket).

I also buy a lot of Philippines coins from the era of US Administration (1903-1945). Those have been on a tear over the time I've been collecting, with the highest end having the greatest appreciation. I used to be able to pick up sea salvaged 1936 commemoratives for melt (there was a shoebox full of them at a coin shop in Austin that I cherry picked). I would have trouble finding those for 2 or 3x melt value now.

 

Basically, the reason for US market decline/ stagnation is they where overpriced to begin with. US coins like the 1857-S Double Eagle are vastly overpriced still today. There are thousands in MS, yey MS-65 still go for 10K+
In World section, I just got a rare 1746 AV Dukat from Swabisches Halle/ Emperot Franz I / FDC / 550 minted/ less then 10 known for 3150 euros/ cheap for that rarity. If, you look at prices paid "Farouk" sale in 1954, same coins now sell 100X thoses realized prices.
John

 

Do other countries have coin shows ? How well attended ?

Many other countries experienced wars that wiped out their economies and financial markets and/or hyper-inflation that decimated savings, too....so the last thing many could worry about was investing in local coins.

That's why American gold coins like Saint-Gaudens were so popular overseas.

 

Absolutely, this is what drove me to British coins and other alternatives.

 

But who will be the buyers down the line for THESE coins ?

Obviously, they've done well to-date...what makes it continue ? That's what I would wonder.

 

The only REAL money is made of precious metals. Today, we live in a world of make believe $=plastic/ paper/crytocurrencies. The latter three have no real value. Governments can print as much paper as they want and cause inflation/ plastic cards make people spend what they do not have=debt/ crytocurrencies are pure nonsense. Hence people are putting $ into collectibles like art/ stamps/ coins. This will only escalate one you get a middle class in third world countries.

 

the problem today is DEFLATION, or disinflation.

 

In Canada. inflation is running according to Stats Canada at 2%. But, when you live in the real world....it seems way higher/ cost of groceries/ gas/ electricity/ rent/ real estate etc. (4-10%)
I know Japan has had deflation for some time now.
With coins there is supply vs demand. In the good ole days 1900-50 only the wealthy 1% formed collections, since the 50s, the middle class grew and thus many ordinary guys like myself included, where able to have extra $ to aquire coin collections. Which is a GOOD thing!
John

 

Same here. I felt priced out of the US coins market. Sure, I could put together a decent MS type set, but so what? It's been done, and it would have always been just an average set. But I can afford to assemble world class sets for Hungary that would cost me millions of dollars if it was in comparable US coins. The choice was easy for me.

 

Once again thank you for all of your responses. This exercise has prompted many good comments about collecting, specifically in the non-U.S. category. I am wondering what sources we use to pinpoint coin values: Auctions such as Baldwin, Heritage, Canadian Numismatic, coin shows such as the New York International Numismatic Convention, JNDA in Tokyo, etc. These are just several I use. I stay away from E-Bay. Your thoughts?

 

The auction route is best. My fav. auctions.....
Heritage/ Stacks/ Kunker/ Roma/ CNG/ Ranieri/ MDCMonaco/ Maison Palombo/ most others on sixbid.
Yes, stay away from e-bay/ unless you know seller.

 

I wouldn't discount eBay. I've found a lot of rarities there, and the prices can be informative. I also use Vatera (Hungarian eBay), auction records, many dealers, catalogs, and most importantly my own judgment based on how often I have seen a piece come up for sale, and how nice it is.

 

Ebay is a great place to buy coins and many times at a fraction of what other places/dealers are asking! For countries whose coins are not commonly found such as thailand, ebay is one of the best places. Ive had dealers go to NY shows, FL shows, etc for me and say they saw 0 thai coins/notes for sale.
I can easily go on the computer and go on ebay and find a ton for sale.

Also on some sites, lets say I find a coin for sale for a certain price, chances are I can find it on ebay for cheaper.

 

This proves my earlier point.

Here is my AV 1633 Dukat Kremnitz Mint Ferdinand II
Polish Auction win in 2016.....paid 4200 US
Today, a similar 1633/ also in FDC sold for 9500euros
1/ coin I won 2016 Warsaw auction 4200US
2/ coin realized 9500euros Macho&Chlopovic auction

 

Macho & Chlapovič is kind of an outlier. Their coins go for insane premiums in my experience, as that auction house only sells the very best quality examples.

 

I have been noticing the same trend with Kunker/ Rauch/ Ranieri.....most other auctions. same scenario, the high quality material just keeps on breaking records. Mind you the price for that Hungarian AV 1633 K-B Dukat is dirt cheap at 9500 euros, compared with US material. The infamous 1857-S Double Eagle is going for 10K+ in same quality. However there maybe only 10-15 1633 examples known. There are thousands of the 1857-S in Mint state 60-68.