US Coin Market Stagnant

What about the influence of gradeflation on the value of the index? An MS-63 coin graded in 2002 (or pick another year) might now be graded MS-64. Astute buyers of coins realize that there are many over-graded coins on the market, and on average probably pay less for an MS-64 today than was the case back in 2002. Therefore gradeflation may skew the value of the PCGS3000 index lower over time.

 

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If you’re only submitting one to a handful of coins that’s 10-38% increase. So insignificant. I would hate to get only a 10% raise at my job. As Pelosi would say: “crumbs!”

 

It's insignificant. If you're submitting coins were that is a significant increase in their overall value you're submitting the wrong coins which they don't want to deal with anyways

 

You'd think you'd have better material by now since I've been saying the same thing about this horrendous index for years now.

Doesn't matter what they hoped to do 30+ years ago. It's a joke of an index that has a ton of classic commens, common coins, and many with undesirable grades.

Whether or not it was ever actually relevant it certainly isn't today unless you want to see how the unpopular stuff is doing.

It's really not hard to see all the flaws in that chart when you look at the make up for people who actually are involved

1954 and earlier silver ones.

 

Except that the market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.

Keynes.

Interest-bearing assets like stocks and bonds rarely go out of favor for long periods of time.

Caveat Emptor*


*That's Latin for....Let's Go Mets !!

 

If this PCGS 3000 index really has 3,000 or close to 3,000 coins in it, that's too many.

A 50-coin index is probably much better and if the coins in said index were to rise my guess is they would reflect rises in other coins as well ("rising tide lifts all boats").

 

https://www.pcgs.com/prices/pcgs3000

It is and it's atrocious. Widgets with expensive, proofs and ms, classic commems, bullion, undesirable grades, low grades with high etc. Half if not more of those would have been kicked off long ago if it was the DOW like GE was. Widgets with expensive, proofs and ms, classic commems, bullion etc. A very significant portion is classic commems including low MS grades.

 

Nothing wrong with Classic Commems. No other series can really match them. Better lower MS graded vs high 66-67 which have more room to fall lol.

They have fallen in recent years but sales strong for me. Go for what comfy afford that fills the hole in album / registry.

 

Recent decades is more accurate

If people want to collect them there's nothing wrong with that, but by no means are they a marker of anything market wise other than themselves. Including them in a market chart skews real data

 

The Commemoratives fell off a cliff about 2 years after gold/silver collapsed....it's like the coins resist a decline in the underlying PM for a while before sellers throw in the towel.

Unless something else happened that I am unaware of ?

 

I looked at the area I have some expertise in....Saints. It is ridiculous.

The purpose of an index is to have a SMALL number of items reflect the larger universe. It defeats the purpose of an index to have 70% of the universe represent 100% of the universe.

You have 32 Saint-Gaudens coins....ridiculous. You probably should have an index of 50 coins with maybe 5 Saints or 100 coins AND grades with 10 Saints. If you want, go with 50 and for the Saint submissions for a year/mint, AVERAGE the price for a couple of key grades, like maye MS65 and MS66 for the 1924 and/or 1927 common Saints.

No need to see prices for non-MS for that year (it's not saving you lots of $$$)....no need to go to MS-67 or MS-68 (hardly any coins in that condition).

The key is to go with LIQUID COINS (by type, mint, year, grade) so that an infrequently-traded coin does NOT come up for sale every 4 years and some billionaire buys it at a 50% premium to the last price years ago.

Not sure when this PCGS 3,000 Index was created and I know that coins are not liquid financial instruments so it's not easy to create an index. But they should re-do it OR just create a new one....that is simpler, less names, more popular coins, more liquid traded coins, etc.

 

That whole huge spike in the late 80s should just be ignored all together in terms of market realities. That was a time of dealer hype and scams just taking people to the wash that thankfully things like the internet and CAC will prevent from being that egregious again.

Absolutely. Coins aren't something that a catch all index can try and sum up in one graph, especially not one that mixes $40 coins with high end ones.

 

My opinion is they should just kill it and let the actual markets speak for themselves as they are independent of each other. At the very least though they do need to rework it and throw a bunch of stuff out

 

1892 to 1954 Silver Quarters, Halves and Dollars, 1903-1926 Gold $1, $2.50 and $50.

 

OK, I see the "classic" in them but where is the "commemorative" part coming into play ?

We're just talking classic silver/gold coins....you indirectly referenced Barbers, Franklins, and Saints, right ?

 

Although other variables are always at play, doesn’t the chart below explain a lot about what’s happened to the coin market? And collectible markets generally, maybe with the exception of jewelry?

In other words, isn’t there generally an inverse relationship between the stock market and collectibles market?

 

That was a little bit confusing.

The "classic commemoratives" are the commemoratives in those denominations that were issued during those periods. So the Pan-Pac gold quarter eagle issued in 1915 is a classic commemorative, but the Indian quarter-eagle from that same year isn't a commemorative at all, so it isn't a classic commemorative, either.

The 1986 Liberty commemorative half-dollar, silver dollar, and gold $5 are not classic commemoratives, even though they are commemoratives.

 

Is any information available on how the index is actually calculated? I see on the website the list of coins represented, but I'm not clear on how the value is derived. I'm assuming those details haven't been made public...

 

I thought it was just "look at most recent auction results for each coin, add them all up"?

 

I find this attitude puzzling. If you’re a collector, who cares what other people buy? I don’t mean to sound condescending here, because I like your posts, but this sounds to me like “other people are having fun in a way I don’t like, so I’m taking my toys and going home.” Last I heard, coin collecting wasn’t a team sport, and you could pursue it any way you want — even if you want to collect US coins.

Is a green or gold sticker on a slab that bothersome? Peel it off! Don’t buy CAC coins! I don’t care! Or not. Who am I to tell anyone how to collect?