low mintage of high grade?

It depends on the series. And how rich you are.

With some world coins, you can get both common and rare in high grades; e.g. Contemporary Japan (1949-present) on a mediocre budget. You just might have to wait a while for your budget to catch up and for the coins to come along.

With other series, you can only get commons in high grade and settle for lower grades for rare ones.

With my South Korea main year-set collection, I am aiming for a "minimum grade" that is STILL possible within my budget.

With copper-nickel coins (50-Won, 100-Won, 500-Won) MS-65 and higher is good.

For copper (1-Won, 5-Won, 10-Won), I try to get MS-64 and higher.

For the few proof commemoratives I pick to fill out my Dansco, I won't accept anything lower than PF-67.

These parameters are feasible for the South Korea series (considering my budget).

I would suggest that others make such a calculation with their own series.

 

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I primarily collect English and Irish copper pattern coins, so the question for me is really about survival rate versus condition. The majority of these coins are rare and do not often come up for sale outside of auctions. The upside of this is that most are high grade. The downside is that they are expensive. I have a tight budget, so the super rare pieces are out of my reach. With that said, I have added a few pieces that Peck lists as extremely rare. I cherrypicked most of these from auctions over the last couple of years. In general, these coins come up for sale in bursts, so it is not uncommon for there to be multiple items of interest. When this happens, I focus my attention on the pieces that come up for sale the least often. I base this judgment on TPG records and auction archives for both raw and certified examples of the same type. This method allows me to allocate my limited resources toward items that will be the most difficult for me to obtain later.

 

And this is a good point as I expect most of us are in a similar lot and have to pick and choose with care. I lost out on a 20th C. Pattern just a couple weeks ago when it went for 5x high estimate as I grimaced with a “nuclear” bid of 4x high estimate and promptly lost. But those of us in the real world can only go but so far. I guess that really makes it a bit more sport.

 

Dang. I know what that's like... been THERE many, many times before.

Bidiots (or people with a lot more money that I have!) always snipe that elusive spondulix that I have my eyes on...

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Similar to this happened to me a few weeks back with a modern pattern. I put in a very strong bid significantly above catalog (but for pieces like this you have to take those values with a grain of salt anyway) but lost in the last few seconds. I was told by a dealer friend of mine that specializes in this material that the bidder was a known collector who "does not lose". They were welcome to it at the price they paid.

 

I wouldn't call participants in an auction for rare and significant material "bidiots." (although, it is arguable that what that is is up for debate). They know what they are going after and are willing (and able) to pay for it. It takes at least two to tango, so someone else wanted it just as badly.

Bidiots are the sort of people that go crazy over an MS-68 Franklin and drive it to hundreds of thousands of dollars.

 

Hmmm, that last example seems to smack of “bidiots”, especially when an equal or superior shows up not long after at a fraction!

 

Hey, man...an MS-68 Franklin was the elusive spondulix that I got outbid on!

How did you know that???

Are you psychic? Do you know the Devil? I have a message for him...

 

@wcg I bought this one before starting this topic and it might actually be the last problem coin of my collection because i've considered the opinions shared by collectors around here and i need to change my approach.
So this one is a Pfalz 1661 gulden with mount marks and tooled that still keeps good details.I paid 250 euro for it and i thought it's a decent buy because of it's rarity and past sales.

the one below was sold in 2015 for 700 euro before premium



sold in 2014 for 3800 euro before premium

 

Good thread!

 

@PaulTudor: The Pfalz piece has much better eye appeal than I would have expected to see after reading the intro. I think you have a nice addition with that one.
I can save for month upon month waiting for the ultimate rarity to come available, and murphy's law will always have it pop up 1 day after I give up and purchase something that catches my eye on a whim. This hobby sometimes has some funny twists and turns.