Gold is Back!!

05/15/2008
09:18
GOLD:
884.20
885.00
+19.80
+2.29%
864.30
885.20

SILVER
05/15/2008
09:18
16.94
16.97
+0.45
+2.73%
16.56
16.97

Some opening!

 

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I didn't know they left. The metals will drive you insane if you let them. They are fairly small markets compared to others and prices move around a lot, but the path of least resistence still seems to be up. I remember people here who were very excited about the "huge" profits they made selling their silver bullion coins at $9.

 

You haven't seen anything yet. Wait for a big shock to happen, like a refinery or mine shutdown. Wait until some large sized banks sink in the USA as a result of the mortgage meltdown.:secret:

 

I need to see that magick $1000 figure again. Even if only for a day.

That's the real reason I have been working at the coin shop. SO much gold and silver coming in the door he needed help sorting so he could buy.

Since it dropped it has slowed and so has my work.

 

And that selling in itself helps to temper the price increases. Lots of gold and silver has been pushing into supply from personal storage.

 

Can you care to explain why the price increased this week or you can't? Why bother discussing if you can't understand the fundamental system of metal prices? Most metal prices increased this week for A reason.

 

The metals are no doubt moving from weak to strong hands. Regarding silver, I tend to doubt that there is much supply from personal storage left that is likely to come to market at a price below $25. Grandma's tea set was either melted long ago, or won't be melted at all. Most of the available junk silver was melted in 1980. You'll get a few thousand ounces coming out of hiding here and there, but one lousy meaningless futures contract is 5,000 ounces. So what seems like a lot sometimes really isn't meaningful in the grand scheme of things.

It's going to get interesting.

 

All you need to figure out is whether (1) the dollar is likely to strengthen or weaken in an absolute, not relative sense; and (2) will the change in relative demand for gold and silver be greater or less than the change in relative supply. I don't consider weekly moves to be meaningful, but year over year you have to pay attention.

 

Interesting points Cloudsweeper but believe me there is still A LOT of junk silver out there. Granted most transactions are maybe a few rolls of Kennedy halves but others are much larger.

I see bags of $500 face walk in fairly regularly. These are mixed bags usually. Kennedy, Franklin and Walking halves all being bought at 10 times face in most cases.
Lots of Roosevelt and Merc dimes as well and the VAST majority of it ends up at the refiners.

This is just my experience in one shop and the area I live in is definitely hurting. People are selling to pay the bills in way too many cases. If the trend continues in other parts of the country we'll see even more junk silver being sold.

Damn shame actually but junk silver is very hot in the coin market right now.

clembo

 

clembo, I hope we get higher gold and silver prices so business will really take off at your place of work. It's somewhat sad to see silver coins melted because many of them are very collectible as starter sets. One of the first sets I put together was a Roosevelt silver "short set" consisting of all of the 1946-1964 dates and mintmarks from the silver years. In circulated condition, this could be done for about melt value, but not if they are actually melted.

 

I feel the same way Cloudsweeper. I can use the work but it really is painful to see retired people cashing in coins to pay bills.

What is junk silver now was all getting a premium as collectible not that long ago.
Wnen the owner buys larger quantities we honestly don't have time to sort them. I do a quick search for Xf or better Mercs, key date coins etc. then it's into the buckets.

If someone has an original roll they DO still get a premium but the amount of BU Roosevelts that gets sent to the refinery is scary. See a lot of AU-BU Franklins going that way as well.

When it's all over I wonder what it will do to the value of some of the more common coins. They are being melted in vast quantities as they were in the 80s.

What REALLY gets me is the amounts of world coins being melted. We have a separate bucked for silver from .500 fine to .925. If it doesn't have a good retail value it goes to the refinery. I've tossed in so many proof coins it's scary. Low mintage stuff too. I can remember tossing in some Jamaican coins with mintages of under 10,000 because the silver is worth more than the book value.

I am no expert on World Coins but believe me, I'm getting an education fast. I look the stuff up before it goes into the bucket. If it has some collector value I urge him to sell it on ebay. He usually does. At least I know SOME coins will end up in the hands of collectors.

Yes, it is tough to watch at times but business is business I'm afraid.

clembo

 

I still believe in that famous law that states what goes up must come down.

 

That't an amazing report, Clembo! What is the going price for junk silver out there?

Edit: More specifically, what do you pay for it and what do you get for it from the refiner?

 

What frustrates me is that is this a numismatic forum, not a metal price forum. Discussing about coin prices going up and down trend, sure that's not a problem. Bullion coins? Sure, it's usually bullion price+ some premium. Relationship between bullion prices and general coin prices - makes sense.

Point is, bullion prices are highly violate and it can be very dangerous to "educate" those who think they know what prices are all about. Even I'm afraid to say what tomorrow's prices are supposed to be at. What ****es me off to no end is what people think future price in a few year's times should be at (and usually in an upward trend) and therefore is good to invest. Hello?

There can be serious misunderstanding of how forums are misused as "informational" purposes and when the day someone claims that they bought a certain amount of precious metals that was supposed to go up and didn't and sues - are you going to add a disclaimer then? Too late then. This forum has been threatened to be sued before in the past as a seller claimed that his reputation was ruined by a post here. Apparently yes, you can be sued for bizarre reasons. Even market analysts spend good amount of time and resource to track what is happening in the market and I strongly believe this is NOT the place to discuss bullion prices. It's always good to profit when times come but when you don't, you don't want to be held reliable for your misinformation.

On the other hand, coins are a different story. You have a fixed set of mintage on coins which you can collect data on and make historical graphs on it. Try that on metal prices on daily tonnages, industrial usage, investment stockpile, recycling, political factors, exchanging rate, mining operational costs, government policies, etc. Not a funny business. Too many factors.

 

Yes GX you are right on the mark, there are a variety of factors which come into play in determining where the prices of commodities will go. I know there are people all over the place that think they can predict using some formula etc. what prices are going to do, and what people should do. I cannot tell you how many times I have heard this nonsensical information on the internet, on TV, and at coin shows.

The problem is, that for coin collectors the prices of commodities like gold and silver have an emotional attachment, perhaps human nature. Perhaps there is no other hobby, or what should BE a hobby that is so determinate on the prices of precious metals.

If I could predict where in the world gold and silver were going to go price wise, I would be very wealthy. Or I could just get wealthy by telling you what they are going to do, whilst you lose your shirt.

Do not invest in gold. It is not an investment. Gold is and should be viewed only as a last ditch insurance policy when all else hits the fan. And... sorry to say, it may even lose value compared to what you paid, but you have something to show for it.

 

Until recently I really loved to see gold and silver prices zoom up, but now I would really like to see gold tumble for a while. One reason being that I would love to buy more gold coins, but not at current levels. The second reaon is now I can see how rising metal prices just reflect the lesser buying power of the dollar.

 

GX, I have to disagree with you. Nobody's reputation is being smeared by this thread, and no investment advice has been given to anybody. That said, it would be completely irresponsible to collect common silver or gold coins without keeping a close eye on bullion prices, forming expectations about potential prices, and seeking information about the buy/sell prices that others are experiencing. For bullion and common coin collectors, bullion prices are the practical equivalent of a greysheet or price guide or completed auctions. Would you purchase a coin with a high numismatic premium without consulting past and recent auction prices to form some opinion about where prices have been and what you might want to pay? Of course not. And when you say things like, "Even I'm afraid to say what tomorrow's prices are supposed to be at." some people might mistakenly think you are implying that nobody elses opinion counts.

Lighten up.

 

I think any discussion about coins will inevitably contain some talk about precious metals. After all, what was the original purpose of a coin but to be an easily transportable and transferrable, reliably assayed storage unit of valuable metal?

 

Again you are not getting my point. Mining alone provides from 70-90% of supply of all minerals, the rest coming from government investment stockpile, recycling etc. You fail to recognize that numismatics does not play a huge role in pricing (maybe up to 5% of demand?) - instead it is the entire supply and entire demand that plays the most important role here. Bullion pricing is directly affected by how much the mines can crank out against the demand (industrial + investment + bullions + etc ) at current time.

I really appreciate if this was discussed by a market analyst on this topic. Any finance experts here? I'm sure there are some in this forum lurking.

 

Well put, Cloud.

And, as has been stated in this forum before, if you don't like what's being written, don't read it.