Disappointing results: HA, GreatColl, Leu

team, i placed bids on about 60 coins, fairly strong bids across 2 recent HA auctions, Leu and current GC auction- this resulted in extremely low success rate- only 1 coin, can anyone explain me why? 1 coin out of 60 with strong bids?????

 

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Because you didn't bid high enough?

 

Few KK per coin is not high enough?

 

For clarity- bids placed were market price bids and in line with prices realized at previous auctions for similar coins

 

It’s easy to run into people willing to spend far more for a coin than it is worth. Just keep your course.

 

If there are other people out there who want the coin more than you do, they will bid higher.

 

It helps to bid live. Then you can decide in real time to go a couple extra increments on a coin you really want and then not bid on others later if you win a few. It helps to manage your total cash and not come away empty handed. If I am blown out on the early coins then watch out when the auction reaches my last target in a sale.

I am very rarely successful placing bids ahead.

John

 

The question is what would you do if you won all 60 ?

 

I was placing bids in chunks, so once i was not lucky on the first 20-30 i placed another 30 for the upcoming session
I was hopping the win rate will be at least 5-7 coins out if 60 so far its 1

 

Past performance usually means very little most of the time. Look at
each lot and figure out what that lot is worth to you at this point in time.
Do not rely on auction history, too many variables to deal with:
Condition of lot, others bidding, etc. Many times I bid multiples of
the high estimate. I do this to win the lot, if I bid per history, then
I am in the boat with you. The bottom line is, it's what you've got in your
collection, not what you wish you have.

 

The more desirable the coin the more the rules go out the door. I might be eyeing 6 coins but their will be one that I make sure I will win, estimate be dammed.

 

I recently won a coin with a secret max bid of 11x estimate.
When a coin is special, you likely aren't the only one who thinks so.

 

Hi NVb, can you share a coin to talking about?

 

These results are a valuable demonstration of the truism that understanding the ancient coin market is more art than science. Examining the hammer prices of "comparable" examples is no doubt a useful component of a successful strategy, but it's probably best if "comps" are the last thing looked at rather than the first. As the OP just discovered, a strategy comprised only of "comps" is worse than useless. Hence the scare quotes around "comps"... because ultimately there are no true comps in ancient coins. The most you'll find are reasonable approximations; often enough you won't even find that.

Phil Davis

 

I bid the highest amount I'm willing to pay at the latest possible time. If I don't win then at least I can walk away without regrets secure in the knowledge I gave it my best financial and strategic effort.

I tend to lose when I don't follow the above strategy and try for 'bargains'.

 

@Svarog I suppose there is no harm.. it was a Roman provincial AE29.
Estimate was silly low and I was determined to not be outbid. Posted here:

https://www.cointalk.com/threads/my-new-favourite-provincial-asclepius-and-serpent.345454/

 

Phil’s post above is good advice. And it also depends on your personal outlook on the market. Some say coins are too cheap and others too high.

 

I can bid $50k on a $500k coin and it won’t be enough.