Let me start with that I reallly don’t collect Morgan’s. Not a huge fan of the series. No particular reason but I’ve just never really gotten into them. Of course I own a couple handfuls of them but really just grab as the opportunity arises and the price is right. Never owned a slabbed Morgan. Lately been thinking I should pick up a nicer Morgan, because i’m Thinking i’d Like to have one (as good a reason as any I guess) and was looking at the 1899-P and it got me to thinking - with a super low mintage but high survival rate, is this a semi-sleeper coin with good appreciation potential or is it just a slightly better date that is saturated in 65-66+ grades? Any thoughts on this particular date/mint are appreciated. Thanks.
I like looking at Numismedia for trends. The 1899 seems to be stable enough for me or trending in the right direction that I would buy a high grade coin: MS64-66. http://www.numismedia.com/rarecoinp...400&guide=prices&guide2=pricesms&proof=&plus= I prefer raw coins but I have bought graded, and I've had my raw coins graded on occasion. My primary mover would be the eye appeal of the coin. If I see an MS64 that appeals to me more, I'll buy it over a higher grade.
1899 Philadelphia mint is an interesting coin. It is low mintage for the Morgan series, but has a high survival rate. There are lots of very attractive, well-struck, and high eye appeal examples of that date in the 64-66 range that I am sure you would find pleasing, at a reasonable price.
1899 was released in quantity during the Treasury sale in the 1960s. There was also a bunch of hoard coins that came to light in the 1950s. There's really not much reason to buy one below MS64, since the price curve is pretty flat. Based on study of a lot of coins there were only 3 die pairs used, which is in line with the mintage and die life expectancy. Given the populations of 1899, it's not really much of a sleeper, and this can be ascertained looking at PCGS guides and pops. The 1899-S in MS62 has a retail value the same as 1899 in MS64, but a far lower population at grade or better. Likewise an 1899-O in MS66+ and an 1898-S in MS63PL. The $575 value is largely driven by the 6-figure mintage number. If you're looking for a Morgan for a type set, there are many choices one can make, and for many different reasons. While it may sound car-dealerish to ask, what are you looking for in a Morgan dollar, and what's your budget? Edit: Oops, I was looking at 1899 in 64PL for that price. Nevertheless, the exercise in looking at the price guide and pops is sound, and I still don't think that a 99 in MS64 is a sleeper coin.
Agree with those above. Personally, I'd only buy a 65 CAC or 65+ 1899. They are way too easy to find in 64 and below, and as messy said, the curve is pretty flat. So flat it makes them uninteresting until you get to that higher grade. Just like the 1909-S Indian Cent... which seems to be worth $350-$400 no matter what condition until you get to "that level."
Thanks for all the input and info thus far. @messydesk - what am I looking for? Good question. I guess I’m looking for a nice type example of a Morgan for the collection. Probably my criteria are: 1) value retention - I don’t need to make money, but I don’t like losing it in the long run. Not planning to sell but eventually everything gets sold. 2) eye appeal incl. strike quality 3) condition (actual, not necessarily numeric grade) 4) date/mint - has to be 19th century and prefer a ‘better date’ if possible. 5) value appreciation - it’s never a bad thing. I’m narrowing down on a couple of options a) 1899 P in 65-66+. Has good strikes. Like the low mintage. Somehow being the last date in the 19th century is slightly sexy. b) 1882 S in 66-67, maybe PL or DMPL. I love the DMPL look but every tiny hit on the frosted cameo really stand out to me so maybe i’m Better off avoiding PL. 82-S have great strikes and are super cheap in 66-67.
My nickname for this date is "Fools Gold." To add. I'm a fool who owns one lol. 3-4 years ago you couldn't find a 64 below 500$. Now u can find a nice one for 350$ all day, everyday. I personally, as somebody already stated, would prefer the 99 s in MS instead? But a nice high grade example of a 99 would be ok as well, I suppose?
82-S isn't as common in PL or DMPL as 80-S and 81-S, but it's a unique date in that many have very deep fields. The curvature of the fields on some of the dies after polishing was more dramatic than you can typically find on other dates. As a result, the fields on these coins are more "dished" and have a very deep look to their luster. If you can find one of these in MS66-67, they're really cool, and would definitely fit your requirements for eye-appeal. For long-term value, 82-S is a very common date in high grade, so I would cherrypick not only for quality, but also for the characteristic curved fields. You'll need something that'll impress a future buyer of an otherwise very high population coin. If you want a "sexier" date, I would consider 98-S or 99-S. These are available very well struck (although 98-S can come weakly struck), as do most S Morgans. One thing to watch is the distinction between well-struck and highly detailed. Many 80-S, 81-S, and 82-S are very well struck from dies that were used to strike over 500,000 coins. A die is supposed to last for about 125,000 strikes. Under magnification, the very fine detail is not as good as you might expect from a well-struck coin, since the dies are worn. The SF mint also would repolish the dies and continue using them, so you can't always equate DMPL with fresh dies. If you do go for a 99, be sure to seek out one that's high end for the grade, as the relatively high populations will make a mediocre one difficult to sell down the road.
There is tons of useful guidance above. Thanks everyone for taking the time to comment - I appreciate it.
