I had mentioned the 24-S being a tougher date in high grade circ....unable to find a nice one at the last show. Here is an example....NGC-45, sold for over AU "ask"....see, guides are not always a good indication of difficulty. That does not mean this coin is across the board so undervalued, it just means that 2 people agree, they dont come along very often this nice !! Had I not blew my collector budget on the 24-D this week, I would have been in there as well. http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&rd=1&item=230236200098&ssPageName=STRK:MESE:IT&ih=013
Not that I am disagreeing with you about the 24-S (although I believe the scarcity begins at AU), but those slabs have been going for absurd prices. Just today 1915-S Lincoln Cent (VF35) PCGS = $55.77, 1922-D Lincoln Cent (AU55) PCGS = $128.77, 1915-S Lincoln Cent (VF20) PCGS = $26.00, etc
I don't follow Lincolns as closely as you guys but Jack can attest I've been paying a lot closer attention as of late. I DO get Greysheet as well and looking at Lincolns is pretty amazing these days. See those little + signs all over the place. I'm not sitting on a bunch of better grade semis in plastic. I have picked them up over the past several years in G-F when I saw them cheap. 11-S I wouldn't see cheap but 10,12, 13,14,15S and 22D could easily be had for $5-7. Dealer bid in G4 is triple that in most cases now or more. I'm also noticing a lot of the D mint coins coming on strong. Especially when you get into XF and higher territory. 31-D was always one of my favorites and I'd pick them up in VF to XF/AU for $3 a pop. I could on an on about these. Luckily, I did put a lot of mine in 2x2s with a semblance of organization some time ago (that's a big deal for me believe me). I've got at least 10,000 "loose" wheats. Many are at least separated by decade. As the prices go up I'm finding I'll need to go back and resort a lot of those. Basically anything pre 1940. Coins I would have "given" away a few years ago are now bidding at $10 and more I'm also seeing bid higher than retail a lot. I don't see that often. Retail will catch up. Yeah, looks like I've got a lot of work to do.
The pricing guides will continue to be behind the real market. I believe with 2009 looming (100th anniversary of the Lincoln cent) the market is booming and will continue to boom through 2009. Since even CDN is probably 2-3 weeks behind the only reliable measure is auction results.
I've had a real problem acquiring a MS graded 1920D. At coin shows for a few years I've asked dealers I know well to try to find one and just no luck. Almost all have said that is no big thing, should be one around here even now. NO such thing. Finally after a few years two dealers found one for me. Took them both but as I said that silly coin took years and not considered rare.
Here are some interesting stats for for. Using the PCGS and NGC populations only, this list shows the number of coins graded RED, the total number graded R/B, and the total number of coins graded with any red on them (the total of red and R/B) . . . . . . RED. .R/B. .Both 1923-S - 118 - 317 - 435 1924-S - 123 - 392 - 515 1924-D - 218 - 478 - 696 1926-S. - 90 - 451 - 541 You will notice the despite the notoriety (st least relative notoriety) of the 1924-D and 1926-S, both the 1923-S and 1924-S are the rarer coins.
I'm going to guess that your problem is the same as mine. The 1920-D Lincoln doesn't have enough value to merit being slabbed until you get to MS-64. About the only way you can get a slabbed MS-63 is that someone overestimated their coin as MS-64 (or higher) and got a rude surprise when it came back MS-63 (or less.) I've got some coins I'd like to buy slabbed, but generally speaking if the owners gets the grades correct, they're not going to submit them. Not cost effective. I bought a raw Capped Bust half dime that looked real good, even in hand. Sent it in for slabbing (AU) and it came back body bagged (cleaned.) It took a lot of looking with my 10x loupe and a lot of rotating and tilting before I found the hairline scratches. Nicely toned so I suspect the cleaning was old. Sent it to ANACS for a "DETAIL" slab, then sold it.
That may not be quite true, but it is a good indicator. Population reports are based on the numbers of coins submitted which is only an approximate indicator of scarcity (or commonness.) As an extreme (and ridiculous) example, what if I submit a 1967 cent and it comes back AG-3. In the population report it is the one and only. Does that make it rarer than a 1909-S VDB in any grade? No, of course not. IMO that's why a population report is only an indicator.
