Ancient Coins: Degrees of rarity

Discussion in 'Ancient Coins' started by CoinBlazer, May 13, 2019.

  1. TypeCoin971793

    TypeCoin971793 Just a random guy on the internet

    I would not call Julius Caesar denarii “readily available.” Sure there are examples available at any given time (so they are not an absolute rarity), but if I wanted a DICT PERPETVO denarius in decent condition, I would probably have to wait a while to find one that has the look I want and the price I am willing to pay. The fact is that I simply don’t have many readily available to choose from. The elephant denarius is a very different story.

    Also 7-8 available is not “very common”. I’d reserve that designation for 50+ available on the interwebs at any given time. 7-8 is just scarce.

    Nah. More like the 1857 S SS Central America double eagles (several THOUSAND certified in MS grades and go for $6-10 thousand easily), 1907 High Relief double eagles (over 9000 certified mostly in MS and still go for $12000+), or 1884 CC Morgan Dollar (nearly 1 MILLION exist in BU condition, but good luck finding one for less than $200).
     
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  3. Terence Cheesman

    Terence Cheesman Well-Known Member

    To answer Theodosius's post. I am not too certain that hoards over the last few decades have had the effect of making very scarce coins more common. In a few cases he is absolutely correct. I can think of two cases of hand these being the what I usually call the "wet head" Leontini Tetradrachm (HGC 671) which I believe was known only by a few coins until the Athena Fund auctions placed a large number on the market place. The second was the hoard of Phaselis staters (Heipp-Tamer's Group 6 )which was known by only two coins in 1993 but some hundreds of coins have been put into the marketplace over the last few years. In fact it looks likely that her Group 6 needs to be divided into two sub groups.This list is not exhaustive, I am certain that other members of the group can cite other instances. The general impact of hoards was to usually to increase the number of coins that were already common though perhaps their greatest impact was to massively increase the numbers of high grade specimens. Perhaps as significant is the dispersal of a number of important collections such as BCD.
    1. Leontini Tetradrachm "wethead" HGC 671
    2. Phaselis Stater Group 6 a
    3. Phaselis Stater Group 6 b
    leontini1.jpg phaselis4.png phaselis3.jpg
     
    Volodya, Sulla80, akeady and 7 others like this.
  4. Theodosius

    Theodosius Fine Style Seeker

    Terrence,

    It would be interesting to make a list of newly common coins. I remember back 20 years ago being told that Elis staters were very hard to come by because BCD was buying ALL of them on the market. I don't know if that is true or not but it sure seems easier to get them now. :)

    John
     
  5. Terence Cheesman

    Terence Cheesman Well-Known Member

    BCD in his day was a force to be reckoned with. Any area of ancient Greek numismatics that he was interested in became almost impossible to collect virtually overnight. At least that is what I have been told. As for your other point, Theodosius I suspect that over time others will add coins which were once rare but now more common.
     
  6. akeady

    akeady Well-Known Member

    Here's another one - this denarius of Cassius was extremely rare until a large hoard of them turned up. The newly-found coins are all shiny like this. Cr. 500/1:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Also, more recently, these Aspendos staters started appearing in large numbers; they were previously rare. I'm sure I read somewhere that these are associated with the hoard of Athens tets which has appeared:

    [​IMG]

    ATB,
    Aidan.
     
  7. akeady

    akeady Well-Known Member

    [​IMG]

    The Leontini tetradrachm is an interesting one, as convincing fakes appeared with the new finds. Fortunately, both your coin and mine share what is hopefully the distinguishing feature between fake and genuine!

    ATB,
    Aidan.
     
  8. Theodosius

    Theodosius Fine Style Seeker

    As Doug has wisely pointed out before, it is smart to pick up coins you want from a new group on the market while you can because often when the supply dries up, that is it for years, decades, or forever.

    John
     
  9. Theodosius

    Theodosius Fine Style Seeker

    A few years ago the CNG coin shop sold a group of EF tetrobols of Olynthos. They must have had 20 of them over a few months. I kept waiting for one with a style I liked and guess what, I missed out...
     
  10. doucet

    doucet Well-Known Member

    Here is an example of a very rare coin that nobody but me would probably be interested in.
    Quadrant
    Spain, Castulo
    ACIP 2155 R9

    It's a common type, but the marks in the fields make it scarce. Also the grade and the legend make it desirable, to me anyway.

    It sold for about the same amount as a good example of the much more common Boar with a star above. Which mine is not a very good example. I'm waiting to replace it with a reasonably priced example of the common coin.

    Many dealers put exorbitant prices on coins just because they are from Spain.



    castulo boar r9.jpg

    castulo boar.jpg
     
  11. Suarez

    Suarez Well-Known Member

    A few years ago I tried to tackle this problem scientifically so as to come up with a system was at least somewhat based on factual data rather than opinion and conjecture. To do this I found it necessary to brush up a bit on statistics which to me is about as fun as poking myself in the eye. Anyway, I published the results of this investigation as a blog entry at http://dirtyoldcoins.com/Roman-Coins-Blog (third post down)

    The gist of it for those who have no interest in reading technical specs is that there are two major types of 'rarity' as concerns numismatics. There is absolute rarity which gives a precise number; ie., the mintage. Unfortunately, while this helps settle the matter for modern coins it doesn't really help in the case of ancients since those records have long disappeared. However, to our aid we can study market rarity which is nothing more than tallying categories of coins from the marketplace and compiling the results. Using simple algorithms from inferential statistics you can then develop prediction models to come up with the likelihood of any one type of coin showing up at auction over a given period of time. If the model is successful then you can apply rarity labels that are useful.

    But it's also important to talk about perceived rarity which, of course, isn't a really an actual definition. For Roman coins, as pointed out several posts earlier, mention Pescennius Niger or Didius Julianus and the average Roman collector immediately thinks of them as downright rare. They're really not, comparitively speaking. They're more common than, for example, a Hannibalianus or Flavius Victor but since these last are ugly little bronzes of no special historical significance in commercial numismatic marketing at least, they don't have the same appeal and this keeps their prices artificially low (or, conversely, those of P. Niger and D. Julianus artificially high) relative to their real rarity. In other words, sleepers. In a literal sense they're also very common, or at least available, since at any moment you can find them for sale on offer from many dealers and auctioneers.

    Anyway, that's not the point. None of this really matters semantically when defining rarity. When it comes down to it the only way this term has meaning is when you compare known values. Since mintages aren't known for ancient coins the best you can do is come up with reliable data and then using that say X is rarer/commoner than Y.
     
  12. Terence Cheesman

    Terence Cheesman Well-Known Member

    Saurez I really admire the work that you have done. It must have taken a great deal of effort. However I do have some issues with the conclusions. If I understand the article in "dirtyoldcoins" correctly you used auction results in assessing populations of Roman Imperial coins. I would think that auction results would skew the results. There are many factors that would affect the velocity of any coins presence in auctions. I would assume that large numbers of coins especially those of lower value such as Roman fourth century A.D. Ae 3's and 4's as well as some others would not be seen in any number in auctions unless they were grouped together in bulk lots. This should have the effect of reducing their population in auctions. Conversely coins of some Emperors such as Caius or Nero or coins of a popular series such as the Hadrian "travel series"may be able to enter the auction circuit at a lesser grade than what otherwise would be the norm thus bumping up their auction presence.
    I agree with you that the concept of rarity in ancient coins is a difficult question to answer. I always preferred the term desirability. Didius Julianus and Niger might not be as scarce as Hannibalianus but it seems more people would like to have one of them, and since they are at least scarce they command a higher price.
     
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  13. Julius Germanicus

    Julius Germanicus Well-Known Member

    The best way to estimate the absolute number of Sestertii surviving of a certain type from the times of Nerva to Gallienus ist to take the respective number of specimens recorded in Banti ("I Grandi Bronzi Imperiali) and multiply it by 3.
    For this time period the respective numbers found in the Guelma hoard (published by R. Turcan, "Le tresor de Guelma") aditionally show their respective proportion in the actual circulation (in North Africa at least) in the late 250´s.
    As the numbers in both sources do tend to correlate rather closely (whatever is rare in Banti is usually not found in Guelma), the combination of both sources gives the best possible estimate of the relative distribution of actual coin production as far as Sestertii of the second and first half of the third centuries are concerned.
     
  14. Suarez

    Suarez Well-Known Member

    Terence this is why it was necessary to take into account ALL auctions available for the period covered. The study took not only the lots from auction houses but also ebay and were combined which together accounts for the majority of coins available for sale. The exception which was not covered were the private sale coins such as vcoins and stock from other dealers. While this data would have been nice to have the prices are often subject to negotiation and the date of sale unknown making the data unreliable.
     
  15. Alegandron

    Alegandron "ΤΩΙ ΚΡΑΤΙΣΤΩΙ..." ΜΕΓΑΣ ΑΛΕΞΑΝΔΡΟΣ, June 323 BCE

    I collect Ancient History, and my coins are placemarkers or touchstones to historical events, Leaders, or peoples. I particularly collect prior to the Roman Empire, and several of the Entitites that interacted with the Roman Republic.

    Several of those Entities that interacted with the Roman Republic were either wiped out, disappeared, or were absorbed into Rome. Due to this, many of their coins were overstruck, destroyed, melted, etc. so that they become harder to find.

    For instance: Carthage. They were a rival World Power prior to and during the 3 Punic Wars to the Roman Republic. Much of their coinage can be readily available, but some of their coinage can be pretty hard to find.

    This was one of the last series of coins struck by the Carthage Empire, and NO coins were struck for 100 years there. Carthage was TOTALLY razed in 146 BCE, with a new ROMAN colony of Carthage coming much later.
    upload_2019-5-16_15-39-39.png
    Carthage Third Punic War Serrate Double Shekel 149-146 BCE 12.8g 26mm Wreathd Tanit-Horse pellet raised leg SNG COP 404


    Capua - Defected to Hannibal in 216 BCE after the Battle of Cannae. Hannibal had promised that should Rome be destroyed, Capua would become the capital of Italia. Subsequently, when Rome retook Capua in 211 BCE, they punished the Capuans severely, and destroyed much of their coinage to erase any memory of Hannibal. Coins from Capua from this period are difficult to capture:

    [​IMG]
    Campania, CAPUA
    2nd Punic War - Hannibal promises Capua as Capital of Italia after Rome destroyed
    Attribution: SNG ANS 210
    Date: 216-211 BC
    Obverse: Bust of Diana right, with bow and quiver over shoulder
    Reverse: Boar right, one pellet above, KAPV (retrograde) in exergue
    Size: 20.72 mm
    Weight: 6.56 grams
    Scarce


    ETRURIA
    [​IMG]
    Etruria 3rd C BCE AE 18mm 4.76g Hd African r Elephant r letter below SNG COP 48 HNI 69 SNG Paris 138-140 SNG Morcom 44 RARE


    [​IMG]
    Etruria, Populonia (pronounced Fufluna)
    2-½ asses , AR 0.85 g
    3rd century BCE
    Obv: Radiate female head r.; behind, IIC (retrograde).
    Rev: Blank.
    Ref: EC 104 (misdescribed, Female head with an Attic helmet). Historia Numorum Italy 179.
    NAC Comment: Of the highest rarity, apparently only the SECOND specimen known. British museum is where the 2nd one resides. 1 of 2 known.


    SHAKYA
    [​IMG] [​IMG]
    India - Shakya Janapada
    AR 5-Shana
    6th-5th Century BCE
    25mm x 21mm, 7.05g
    Obv: Central Pentagonal punch plus several banker's marks
    Rev: Blank
    Ref: Hirano Type I.8.29
    Coinage from the Ghaghara Gandak River region.
    One of less than 20 known


    CAMPANIA
    [​IMG]
    Campania
    AE
    Apollo-Achelous
    275-250BCE
    SNG ANS 474
    4 known
    Ex: My random capture in an auction...

    @Nicholas Molinari 15-June-2016 stated: "Your ... coin is a plate coin in Potamikon, number 343 in our catalog so Sambon 663; Taliercio IIIa.16; MSP I, 343, featuring Acheloios Sebethos as a man-faced bull. Taliercio cited three examples of this type, so yours is the fourth known of that particular variety."
    [​IMG]


    LOL: Since these are all relatively RARE, each are worth well over $1,000,000 USD. Yep, I will sell them the MODERN US COIN COLLECTORS after I get them slabbed and ensure they state "less than X Known"

    OR! As I love MY corner niches of the Ancient Coin Hobby, they will go to my grave to be dug up in a couple thousand years! :D
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2019
  16. Valentinian

    Valentinian Well-Known Member

  17. KSorbo

    KSorbo Well-Known Member

    As a collector of slabbed US type coins, I’ve started to branch out a bit into ancients while sticking to my comfort zone of NGC slabs on Heritage and eBay (yeah, I’m seeing rotten tomatoes coming my way already :-( . One thing I’ve noticed from watching the Heritage auctions is just how common the Owls and Alexanders appear to be in relation to everything else. It seems they truly are the Morgan Dollars of ancient coin collecting. However, they still look cool and it’s not surprising that even boring non-ancient collectors like me would want to have one. With slabbed ancients becoming more common on easily accessible venues and bringing the dark side to the masses, is that driving up prices of more common material?
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2019
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