I'd like to hear your opinion on what should be kept today in anticipation of greater profit in 20 years: in general, A RARE COIN or A COIN (conditions) MS65+ ???
General info for people who possibly might benefit: MS65+ does not have any intrinsic meaning for many coins, so by itself and no other considerations, cannot be used as the determinator for keeping a coin and looking for a profit in the future. Though it is likely that most, if not all or nearly all (like as in the proverbial 99.9999999% figure) MS 65 or above coins will, over time, increase in value over time (meaning over face value), that does not mean they will ever really get valued like some coins ONLY based on being MS65 (or above). Some issues really only rise to more astronomical values based on being true gems (MS67 or more) and only when this is a true conditional rarity. This generally follows only when 1) there are the collectors who are interested in having these and the number of collectors is sufficient to give competition in acquiring them or 2) there is one person who truly desires to own that who will pay for the privilege without competing buyers. I've deliberately left out other possibilities like someone purchases for way more than it really is worth just because they are stupid. Yeah, that is a thing and it happens. That said, Rare also does not have any intrinsic value. You can have a really rare coin, but it may never increase in value over time either absolute money-wise (i.e., it's value is 1$ in 1950 and still 1$ in 2050) or compared to buying power (it does go up, say between 1950 and 2050 but when you look at what a dollar bought in 1950 and what it buys in 2050, you have no change). Many times, rare is only rare until all of a sudden more are found in a hoard or have been hidden in private collections and not offered for sale (and thus become 'known') until after when one fetches some really big price. Rare also does not matter if condition is so poor that collectors don't want them in that condition or there is no interest at all in collecting them. In some cases, rarity and top condition still don't bring profits to people --- even in coins. More can be said, but this is basic.
I think if you enroll in a course of Econ 101 at your local college or university, you can learn all you need to know about "supply & demand" and how those precepts can be applied to the value of coins. As far as what the supply & demand for any coin will be 20, 50 or 100 years from now, nobody knows! Chris
Great question. I'm glad you used the word opinion's in your post. That's about all anyone can offer on the topic. In truth, it's all a gamble. Some coins may be winners and others may never increase in value. It's cool to just break even. Not many do that. My opinion. Buy pretty coins. They will sell in the future. Ugly is tough to sell. Pretty, problem free key dates, will do well over the years. Nice Bust coins have done well for me and I feel they still have more room to grow. Nice tough date Seated coins are on my list as a good bet. Grade is not a major deal to me on most coins.
Time ... and unaltered key coins (the best you can afford). That's my key to hoping I break even or make a profit collecting coins. I've got an AU-50 1907 High Relief Saint. It's taken 15-20 years but the catalog value shows that I have probably broken at least even. That means I believe I've covered the original dealer's mark-up and covered a dealer's lower buy price if I were to sell (and maybe even inflation). I don't expect to stumble upon a surprise coin, one that is a cherrypick. But I did find one 10-15 years ago. An MS 1858 FE that turned out to be a 1858/7. That was nice.
I have been collecting for over 70 years and my approach has always been date, mint and eye appeal. I have never tried to accumulate for future profit. If you are looking for profit, you are not really collecting coins. IMHO.
