I was recently looking at a dime that had a mintage of 1.1 million. Very few were saved by collectors when they came out so theres litterally only a handful in existence in any MS condition. NGC has graded 47 of them total. PCGS has graded 183 in total. PCGS estimate of survival in any grade is 300. Doesnt this number seem low for a 1+ million mintage? How do they come up with an estimate?
Estimates are just educated guesses. Some coins were workhorses and far less survived especially during hard economic times where very few could afford to collect
Many early 19th century or even mid-19th century coins that had mintages in the hundreds of thousands or millions have estimated survival rates of less than a thousand. The main reason is coin collecting was an uncommon hobby then. For almost everyone back then, coins were lumps of metal for commerce. The designs stamped on them were to indicate weight and purity. Banks would exchange worn older ones for newer with the older eventually melted. No big deal for jewelers, bullion dealers, etc. to melt silver or gold coins. They were only concerned with the metal content. Unless coins are preserved out of the grasp of humans by being underground or under water, there will be attrition. It's just a question of how fast. Good chance 2019 Lincoln cents in their current billions will be great rarities in 3019. Cal
At least some “Coin Facts” numbers are on the low side. That has been my experience with early gold. When I was putting together and exhibit of early gold, I consulted three sources for type coin rarity, “Coin Facts,” Dave Bowers type coin book in the Whitman Red Book series and the Harry Bass, John Dannreuther book on early gold die varieties. The “Coin Facts” numbers were the lowest. In addition, population reports are overstated because of crack-outs and resubmissions.
