Has Anyone Tried buying a Substantial Part of a Coin's Population??

Discussion in 'World Coins' started by 1934 Wreath Crown, Mar 16, 2019.

  1. 1934 Wreath Crown

    1934 Wreath Crown Well-Known Member

    I was just curious if anyone here has owned or does own a substantial portion of the entire graded population of any coin and how did that work out for you in the end. I am obviously talking about a reasonably scarce coin with a maximum graded/known population of 30-40 coins between the two big players NGC and PCGS.

    Over the years I focused my attention largely to GB sovereigns. Unintentionally, or perhaps my subconscious is getting the better of me ;), I ended up owning 4 to 5 examples of some key date and type sovereigns with a reasonably small graded population of a maximum of 40 coins, from a small initial mintage number anyway. I'm talking about 140-160 year old coins with an initial mintage of no more than 20-150,00.

    These were not proof versions issued purely for presentation or collectors but business strikes which went into circulation. Hard to guess how many survived. Had these been US coins, I'm sure their values would be in the hundreds of thousands but alas sovereigns don't command such premium prices.

    I wanted to know if anyone else here has or had a fairly sizable slice of any coin's population and how did it work out after a few years or 10. I'm still hoping that if supplies dry out or dwindle, I can offload some of these at a handsome gain.

    Or am I living in a fool's paradise??!!
     
    1934 Wreath Crown, Mar 16, 2019
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  3. ToughCOINS

    ToughCOINS Dealer Member Moderator

    I very strongly believe this to be a fool's errand.

    Why, you might ask?

    After acquiring your first few examples, the population depletes, and you are forced to pay ever more for each subsequent purchase you make. Okay, so at this point, you are getting excited because you see the value increasing. The problem is that the increases are contrived instead of being the result of organic demand.

    When you finally decide to begin liquidating your holdings, the first buyer will be the hungriest for that coin, and willing to pay the most. Following that, the next buyer likely will not surrender as much money for the next available example, and so on.

    As more of your long held examples enter the marketplace, the prices realized will continue to drop, especially as more of those sold are offered in competition with those you still own.

    Ultimately, you'll probably gain something, but I don't think cornering the market ever returns nearly as much as those who try it envision at the onset.
     
    ToughCOINS, Mar 16, 2019
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  4. Evan8

    Evan8 A Little Off Center

    Evan8, Mar 16, 2019
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  5. 1934 Wreath Crown

    1934 Wreath Crown Well-Known Member

    Yes that would be true of a hoard of 50+ coins. Its a high number to shift....but 4-5 coins?!

    Luckily I've bought them at very competitive prices from non UK sources where not too much is known about their desirability. They are currently R4 at the very least and I suspect my last 3 purchases were from owners who unfortunately needed money quickly. In fact one of them had been purchased for $7,000+ only 9 months ago and I managed to get it for under $3,000 and the other, a higher grade one was also for less than half the last known hammer price.

    Maybe I can manage to sell only one at a handsome profit and the others then are free for me:D
     
    1934 Wreath Crown, Mar 16, 2019
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  6. Eduard

    Eduard Supporter**

    Well, I own one of only two known examples of a mid. 19th century crown from the Granduchy of Hessen-Darmstadt. This would be 50% of the entire known population:).
     
    Eduard, Mar 16, 2019
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  7. ToughCOINS

    ToughCOINS Dealer Member Moderator


    If you bought them via private treaty, I tend to agree you'll make a good profit on them because those were uncompetitive purchases. On the other hand, if they were bought at auction, I think you're buying into a declining market, and you'll have to wait out the down-cycle.

    Again,why would I write that?

    Because you've bought those coins in the face of what appears to be reduced demand. Why else would the coins not fetch more money at auction? Especially if they are as rare or scarce as you indicate, then surely they were known to be available to most of those pursuing them.
     
    ToughCOINS, Mar 16, 2019
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  8. 1934 Wreath Crown

    1934 Wreath Crown Well-Known Member

    I sourced them and bought them through private deals in other countries. Their lowest auction prices have been at least double what I paid.

    I guess I'm ever the optimist...:p
     
    1934 Wreath Crown, Mar 16, 2019
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  9. ToughCOINS

    ToughCOINS Dealer Member Moderator

    That's good for you, assuming they're genuine. With all of the counterfeiting going on out there, you'd best be sure. Are they already graded by NGC or PCGS?
     
    ToughCOINS, Mar 16, 2019
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  10. QuintupleSovereign

    QuintupleSovereign Well-Known Member

    I'd love to know who has the financial muscle to attempt something like this!
     
    QuintupleSovereign, Mar 16, 2019
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  11. Stork

    Stork I deliver

    I once owned two coins that had a population of 60 (an obscure gold essai...in fact I just sold the second one). As in minted population. Graded population was less than 10 IIRC. Of course some coins have low pops because they are not interesting to the general US collecting public (like a US coin coin). I had both for a decade or so, give or take. They both got me a bit of profit, not huge though as it wasn't really a widely collected series.

    edited to add: the registry game might make this more lucrative to you going forward.
     
    Stork, Mar 16, 2019
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  12. 1934 Wreath Crown

    1934 Wreath Crown Well-Known Member

    Sorry. I thought that was implied in my OP. Yes they are all certified and graded by either NGC or PCGS. One has to be up at crazy hours to find these and negotiate with the seller. A couple of the coins were listed at fixed prices and I managed to knock the sellers down 20-25% from an already decent deal....not bad I guess
     
    1934 Wreath Crown, Mar 16, 2019
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  13. 1934 Wreath Crown

    1934 Wreath Crown Well-Known Member

    That's great.....:happy:
     
    1934 Wreath Crown, Mar 16, 2019
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  14. 1934 Wreath Crown

    1934 Wreath Crown Well-Known Member

    Well if one watches the market and is prepared to bargain, it can be done without breaking the bank. Its not cheap but its definitely not beyond many of the members on CT.

    These are UK sovereigns not US coins so they are still affordable. I'm counting on collectors realizing that MANY sovereigns are actually more scarce, and dare I say it even more RARE, than all those Morgan dollars and Double Eagles that command exorbitant values. Many proof sovereigns are already displaying and upward price trend and in time, so should the scarce and key date business strikes.
     
    1934 Wreath Crown, Mar 16, 2019
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  15. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    What does information like that tell a collector, what does it indicate ?

    Well, it could possibly mean this -

    Or, it could mean this -

    Or, it could mean that neither one of the previous two things is true, but rather that the previous buyers did something that is all too common - they overpaid, and grossly so.

    So how does one answer the question ? Well, you need more information. Information like what did the coins sell for before the mentioned previous buyers bought them ? And information like have the coins been upgraded in recent years thus falsely inflating their value ? And information like what has the world coin market been doing in recent years ?

    I can't answer the 1st or 2nd questions because I don't know exactly which coins they were, but I can certainly answer the last. For roughly 15 years the market for world coins has undergone a boom the likes of which it has never seen. Prices for world coins have increased continuously since 2003. And that, all by itself should tell us something else, that the market for world coins is way, way overdue for a fall, a major correction.

    No market ever just goes one direction, all markets fluctuate, they go up and they go down. And when they only go one direction for a sustained period of time, then you know with certainty that it is only a matter of time before they turn around and go the other direction.

    As for the original question, over the years many have tried to corner the market for a particular coin of known scarcity in hopes of capitalizing on their efforts. None have ever been successful in achieving their goals.
     
    GDJMSP, Mar 17, 2019
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  16. Nathan401

    Nathan401 Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

    When I think of cornering a market, the Hunt brothers come to mind. We all know how that ended. They lost over a billion Dollars.
     
    Nathan401, Mar 17, 2019
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  17. panzerman

    panzerman Well-Known Member

    Better late then never....
    I do own three coins that are unique;) So, I guess I did in a way.
     
    panzerman, Mar 17, 2019
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  18. ToughCOINS

    ToughCOINS Dealer Member Moderator


    Now, THAT'S the way to corner a market!
     
    ToughCOINS, Mar 17, 2019
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  19. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Well, yeahhhhhhhh - except there's not one :)
     
    GDJMSP, Mar 17, 2019
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  20. Michelle_7728

    Michelle_7728 Member

    Would love to see a picture of it. Have you posted one in another thread?
     
    Michelle_7728, Mar 18, 2019
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