Intermediate Coin Values

If this question has already been answered I couldn't find it so please bear with me.

I have a coin certified as XF45. The values guide I use only lists XF40 and AU50. What is the formula if any to interpolate the value of the XF45?

 

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What is it

 

It's a hypothetical question that applies to the values of coins listed in the Numismedia Fair Market Value Price Guide. Since the horizontal page breaks of their on-line values occur between XF40 and AU50 I was wondering if there is a generic formula that can be applied to determine the XF45 value.

 

You have no real choice but to do a linear interpolation. Any other formula would be just a guess and would be unsubstantiated.

 

There's no magic formula. The coin itself will matter in terms of quality as some 45s can sell for 50 prices, about all you can generically say is the bigger the gap between 40 and 50 the bigger the bump a 45 could potentially have.

 

Good points so let's set up an example. The Numismedia Fair Market Value Price Guide for an 1879CC Cap (Capped MM VAM 3) lists the XF40 value at $1,020 and the AU50 value at $1,860. Realizing that its actual resale value would depend on its
actual quality, what would you use as a baseline value for a generic coin of this type.

I need this baseline value for insurance purposes since in an insurance claim the coin is no longer available for evaluating its actual quality and an adjuster would require a verifiable source to use as the basis of valuation for a claim.

 

Ah. For that particular use, I'd either stick with simple linear interpolation, or turn to PCGS CoinFacts or the like.

 

I use a sort of arm waving guesstimate.
If a catalog gives me a value for XF-40 and AU-50 I add 40% of the difference to the XF-40 value.

 

You can't do a linear or any other kind of mathematical extrapolation between grade points, as the numbers are just a shorthand for a perception of quality and have no quantitative meaning. In general a supposed "45" coin is a bit nicer than a "40", but it's still XF, not AU. That means in general it may have a small premium above the typical XF.

That said, I agree with what some others have implied - that some XF coins are really nice and may command more dollars than some AU coins. This whole business of trying to calculate a price from a grade is a fool's errand. No offense meant to those who choose to believe otherwise, but facts are facts.

 

And while we're on the subject, how come Numismedia FMV covers every gradation of AU and MS, but skips directly from VF20 to XF40?

 

I guess I will end this discussion now as IMO the comments are becoming contentious rather than informative.

Actually what I do is add the two values together and divide by 2. So in the example I use $1,440 [(1020+1860)/2]. Regardless of whether others agree, this is the only way I see to provide an objective auditable base an insurance adjuster can relate to.

What I was trying to do with this thread is see if there were other ways to determine that value.

Thanks for the suggestions.

 

Through the years, I have had many dealers/experienced collectors tell me that the right measure of a half-way grade (ie. XF45, F15) is 25% of the difference between lower and upper grade. Thus, if VF=$100 and XF=$200, then VF30=$125. I’ve been informally using this formula for a good while & it seems to work.

 

It all depends on perspective. If you're the buyer, your formula is perfect.
If you're the seller, not so perfect.

 

The price difference doesn't just reflect the grade, but also scarcity. Some are very common in XF-40 , but are almost unheard of in MS-60, and a standard % would not reflect this. Get a copy of this and keep the issue you use to report to the insurance company.
https://www.greysheet.com/

Imo, Jim

 

Again thanks for the input.

A direct quote from my coin insurance policy [HIGHLIGHTING MINE]: "The basis of valuation in the event of a loss shall be MARKET VALUE at the time of loss to be agreed by an independent individual or organization MUTUALLY ACCEPTABLE to the
Underwriters AND THE INSURED."

The policy then goes on to describe an umpired arbitration approach if the parties do not agree.

The way I see it I would be a fool not to have my perception of the value of the loss so I can evaluate how much I would have to give to avoid an umpired process that would cost me for arbitration services and fees.

 

The PCGS and NGC price guides have the intermediate-grade values. You just have to click on the appropriate tab. See e.g. https://www.pcgs.com/prices/priceguidedetail.aspx?ms=3&pr=1&sp=1&c=744&title=morgan+dollar .

 

Thanks for the input but their use is limited.

For example, "The PCGS Price Guide prices apply only to PCGS-graded coins."
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/

And "Since 2005, NumisMedia has served as the official price guide of NGC and the Collectors Society" it is missing the same intermediate values as the Numismedia FMV Guide.
https://www.ngccoin.com/news/article/1060/NumisMedia-FMV-Price-Guide/

 

If I were you, I would ask the insuring company to provide a list of those appraisers or source of information they will accept before you buy/renew the insurance. They may own through a subsidary company one of their own who will low ball you for sure. It would not be the first time for such to occur with insurance companies. IMO, Jim

 

It's not too hard to figure out what the discount for a "raw" coin should be vis-a-vis a PCGS-graded coin. One way to do this would be to regress red book values on PCGS values for those grades where they are both available, then use the regression equation to generate a predicted red book value for a given PCGS value.