Coin market soft

I'm pretty sure the PCGS charts are in nominal dollars (not inflation-adjusted). I know that the gold/silver chart I posted is in nominal dollars.

Edit: if you want to roll your own adjustment, looks like cumulative "official" inflation amounted to about 2% over the past year, 8% over the past 5, 20% over the past 10. Your mileage may vary if you want to compare to gas prices, milk prices, or the canonical "nice men's suit".

 

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That depends on what you collect. Like many here I don’t have gobs of cash to throw at high grade rare examples. But the auction prices on what I do collect have increased slightly over the past five or so years.

 

Dang Doug...you care a lot more about this conversation then I do.
All I was wanting to point out in 10 words or less (11 if you count both of my posts) is that it depends on at what point you ask the question.

I think that we've hit bottom and for awhile now we will be in a growing coin market. But yes over 10 year isn't not been good. But over a longer one it looks good again.

All I"m saying is I feel today's coin cost more then last month's coin and I don't call that soft.

 

I always enjoy this snapshot of my eBay business. It is limited, but gives my info compared to the overall market, plus how I'm doing vs last year. So for me, the market is great.

 

I hope you are right. The latest trend toward electronic transfers may change the dynamic for the newer generations.

 

No...coin collecting is a hobby. However, if you want to make money, Invest in Marijuana Pot Stocks. I changed my $34,000 into $400,000 by investing in pot stocks. Just food for thought!

 

I think "yes".
But sellers don't seem to be aware of that.
Prices haven't gotten lower.
Collectible coins are not selling at current levels.

Bullion seems to be doing okay.

 

Everything I would like to buy is high and only getting higher.

 

One of the advantages (there are a few, very few)of being a senior citizen is the ability to bring perspective into a discussion. I will be 76 later this year. I can very well remember entering the coin collecting hobby. It was in the middle of 1957, just getting close to my Fourteenth birthday and my main hobby was shooting my BB gun at any target that would remain stationary for more than five seconds. But then I went to a local farmers market where a coin dealer had a regular set up. I purchased an 1865 nickel three cent piece and the Yeoman's Blue Book, both for about $3. I was fascinated by what the book revealed and the fact that I had a coin that might have been (maybe) in the pocket of a Civil War soldier. I had recently started to read the Bruce Catton books on the Civil War and would hold the coin in my hand as I read. I was both enthralled and addicted. I went through my father's change weekly (found a 42 over 42 Mercury dime there) and my corner grocer co-operated by setting aside any barber coins and buffalo nickels and once a week he would give them to me at face value (thank you, Mr. Gaucher). In my senior year of high school I purchased my first ancient, a splendid denarius of Nerva ($10). Now I could read about Ancient Rome and have a piece of it in my hands. A few years later I went into teaching (history, naturally) and the first thing I did was to take over the school's stamp and coin club. It was well attended and the kids made presentations and then traded material. Philatelist and Numismatists (maybe even a few vexiologists) were around then and these hobbies were almost as well attended as the school's football games (lousy team). The point is, at that time the collecting of coins was a hobby that youngsters could afford and it was not so much the investment which it later became. Once hair splitting between an About MS 66 and 1/2 and a choice BU MS 67 became common (with consequent price increases) numismatics became as much speculation as anything else and absolutely drove out of the market folks who just wanted to collect cool coins. I stayed with the hobby adding many coins and paper currency that were related to my teaching, but over the years the students seemed less interested and by the time I left teaching (2009) the kids treated the coins as little more than a mild curiosity and pretended that out of politeness to me. I am still very much into the hobby. I attend shows regularly and if you have been like me you may have noticed that many collectors look like me, grizzled, gray haired, wizened, codgers, older than the coins they collect. Is the coin hobby (or investment market) soft? Are marshmallows soft? Except for the ancients which have continued to do well, the coin market is soft and as younger people increasingly go to digital wallets, coins will become as relevant to them as spatterdashes and buggy whips to us. I see this same trend in the collecting of antique firearms and swords. Demographics and technology are going to doom both paper currency and coins in the lifetimes of some of those reading this and as that happens the niche collectors of coins and currency will go the way of the niche collectors of buggy whips. Tastes and interests change and as much as it distresses me to say this (and it does very much distress me to do so) except for ancients and medievals, the long term outlook for coin collecting as a mass hobby is trending downward. Such is my sad conclusion. Argue if you will from the charts, but my admittedly anecdotal observations, for whatever value they have, is that collecting coins is not a good way to make money anymore.

 

I've always said they need to drastically overhaul that index or just get rid of it all together.

 

Newer generations literally throw their change away.
If you can't find old coins in circulation anymore, there is really nothing to spark their interest in the hobby. Sure people will still buy graded and slabbed coins,
but more as an "investment". The hobby will go the way of stamp collecting and matchbook collecting. A very small demographic of nerdy Norman Bates types.

 

If you want to know what's going on in the market right now, then the one year chart gives the best information. Using the ten year chart would lead you to believe the market has been declining and will likely continue to decline. But the one year chart shows you there was a bottom and the market has begun to improve. I believe the best predictor of the overall numismatic market right now is we are near the beginning of a bull market.

 

GDJMSP, Thanks for the statistical chart. I'm guessing that PCGS data input is primarily U.S. & World modern coins; & what I mean by modern is machine struck coins that go back nearly 500 years. Am I correct on this point? Since PCGS is not known for certifying hammered coinage, especially ancient Greek, Roman & Byzantine coinage, their data input for hammered coinage must be minuscule. Please clarify this. Excellent points were raised by other CoinTalk members too. The current generation doesn't have the interest in collecting coins for a variety of reasons, e.g.: they don't have the disposable income of past generations, their hobbies are more related to the digital world, coin values have escalated to the point where the "fun" part of collecting is no longer there, & counterfeits of U.S. & modern World coins have discouraged people from the hobby. Many coin collectors who have become disgruntled with modern coins have turned their attention to ancient coins because you don't have to be wealthy to get involved. Many ancient coins over 1,500 years old can be bought for as little as $15.00 each, & their historical & aesthetic value far exceed modern coins.

 

I truly hope you are correct about post-boomers and coin collecting. It seems that, in the opinion of many, the past is just unrecycled junk and history must be re-written to accommodate new ideologies. I look at a 1936 Canadian silver dollar and see a face from a past that struggled through wars, cold and hot, to bring about the peace we live in today. I hope the next owner sees the same things.

 

@kevin McGonigal, Great post, thanks.

From BB guns to Bruce Catton! Common experiences.

 

That really shouldn't have had any impact on collectors who just wanted to collect cool coins. Most series of US coins examples can be found cheap and the nicer coins always have cost more than the inferior.

The real issue if they had one was that they wanted MS 67 coins for 63 prices, or their taste just outgrew their budget. Price differences at the high end are irrelevant to most collectors

 

The coin market is always soft when you're selling but never when you're buying. That's my theory of relativity.

 

It's 100 percent US coins. More specifically it's even just a single specific grade for that date/mm for each entrance.

https://www.pcgs.com/prices/pcgs3000.aspx

It's a hot mess.

WAY to many common date common grade things and WAY WAY to many classic commems. Then there's proofs and business strikes ect.

When you look through the list it quickly becomes apparent all the problems with it