Coin market soft

Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by Sean Sydnor, Feb 18, 2019.

  1. Sean Sydnor

    Sean Sydnor New Member

    I am just curious, is the coin market pretty soft right now?
     
  2. Avatar

    Guest User Guest



    to hide this ad.
  3. Duke Kavanaugh

    Duke Kavanaugh The Big Coin Hunter

  4. Sean Sydnor

    Sean Sydnor New Member

    Oh okay..the reason I am asking is that I have several coins on auction now and I reviewed how they are doing right now compared to what they sold in previous year. It seems that a lot of the are not going for as much in previous years.
     
  5. serafino

    serafino Well-Known Member

    I hope it gets much softer :) unfortunately that's not the case with what I collect.
     
  6. atcarroll

    atcarroll Well-Known Member

    Have your auctions finished, or are they in progress? In a lot of cases people will watch an auction and only bid near the end.
     
    Two Dogs and Sean Sydnor like this.
  7. cpm9ball

    cpm9ball CANNOT RE-MEMBER

    When someone is able to accurately predict how the market will react in a given situation, that person should stop selling coins and start selling information.

    Chris
     
    55Doubled likes this.
  8. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    It's not ? I don't know what else you'd call it - this is its performance for the last 10 years.

    index10graph.gif
     
    imrich and Sean Sydnor like this.
  9. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    It k
    It looks like it is following the price of silver and gold.
     
    serafino likes this.
  10. Collecting Nut

    Collecting Nut Borderline Hoarder

    All depends on what you collect. Some types of coins have declined in price, others have held their ground and some types have increased.
     
  11. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    Many areas of it are soft such as common date common grade things. Quality and exceptional pieces are mostly strong right now. Some of it depends on the particular series as there's no one across the board answer
     
    serafino likes this.
  12. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

  13. Duke Kavanaugh

    Duke Kavanaugh The Big Coin Hunter

    Do that same chart for the last year for me.
     
    John Johnson likes this.
  14. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    As the price of silver and golden soften, it takes the market awhile to react. The bullion market may have found its low point, and it may make a slight recovery over the next couple of years. The wild cards to coin collecting are the Gen-X and Millennial generations. Will they become collectors in similar numbers as Baby Boomers? Coins and currency have lost their allure with electronic transfers. I rarely use or receive money anymore. How will this revolution change coin collecting? I'm thinking that it will eventually have a negative impact. Despite my doubts, I love collecting and plan to continue to do it. There are worse ways to lose money than to buy money:)
     
  15. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    OK -

    [​IMG]



    But what is it you want to see ? Would you like to see what is really going on, or would you only like to see what you want to see ?

    For example, here's a 3 year chart -

    [​IMG]


    Now couple the 3 year chart with the 10 year chart I posted previously.


    The original question was -

    So lemme ask ya Duke, which do you think really, or most accurately, answers the original question ?

    Apparently you think the 1 year chart does that. And perhaps it does if you only focus on the "right now" part of the question. But if one were to only look at the one year chart, does really put things into perspective ?

    It sure doesn't to me because it doesn't tell you what's going on. Oh sure, by just picking a small portion of the chart one could say the coin market is going up - right now - and that's a good thing ! But the part that's being ignored is - going from where exactly ?

    Ya see, ya have to know where it used to be, in order to determine where it is now. And to do that you have to look at the other 2 charts I posted. Only then can one have a realistic understanding of what the coin market is doing.

    And if you go back even further to 1970, what you see then is that values in the coin market today are at the same level they were 2003. Now that is a story that actually tells you something !

    [​IMG]

    But if you take the 1 yr, the 3yr, the 10 yr, and the 1970 to date charts all together, what they tell you is this. For the last 10 years values in the coin market have been falling steadily seeking what they call a "bottom". And that's what usually happens in any market after there has been a bull market, a period of time when prices/values were steadily rising. That's basically the way all markets work - they go up and then they go down. Or they go down and then they go up - pick your poison. Like I said, it depends on if you only want to see what you "want to see", or if you want to see what's really going on.

    And what's really going on is that for a long time now the market has been looking for a bottom. And if you look at the 10 year chart you can see that along the way there have been several bumps upwards. But each and every time there was a bump upwards it fell backwards again, and then even lower. That's why it is said it's seeking a bottom, it's looking for support - a point at which it finds strength, a place where buyers seeming agree that it's unlikely to go any further, or at least no much further - down.

    And that's what we see in the 1 yr chart - a ray of hope on the horizon. We do not see that the market is not soft right now, we merely see a ray of hope. A brief indication that maybe the worst is over. That maybe the market has found the support it needs and it might, just might, stabilize and move either sideways or even upwards for a while. Because that's also what markets, all markets, do in between those periods of rising and falling. They don't ever just go up and they don't ever just go down - they go up, down, and sideways.

    But the only way you can ever tell what's really going on is to look at charts over a longer period of time ;)
     
    Two Dogs likes this.
  16. serafino

    serafino Well-Known Member

    Turn the clock back to 1970 at a coin show and most of the people there would have been born between 1900 to 1930 and they'd be asking each other if these young baby boomers would have any interest in coin collecting in the distant future of 2019 :)
     
    CasualAg$ likes this.
  17. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Does anyone else hear a former guest screaming outside the door? :rolleyes:

    Looking at charts over a longer period of time (to quote you in full) gives you more context for what can happen, and of course tells you what has happened. But looking at charts can't tell you what's going to happen.

    Bottom line, though, I probably agree with you -- you don't stand much chance of grasping what's going on if you don't know what's gone on.
     
    TheFinn, Stevearino and Two Dogs like this.
  18. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    True, but one has to also dissect the charts and realize the fatal flaws to really see what happened.

    The PCGS 3000 desperately needs to be reconfigured. Classic commems are a big part of it, proofs and business strikes are mixed together, it's really just a mess where they made a lot of mistakes in the composition of it for how useful the information it shows actually is.
     
    TheFinn and Two Dogs like this.
  19. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Yes, it's almost as though charts leave off a lot of information, some of which is crucial for understanding. ;)
     
  20. Gilbert

    Gilbert Part time collector Supporter

    Are the charts inflation adjusted?
     
  21. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    Who would have ever guessed :D
     
Draft saved Draft deleted

Share This Page