Did anyone else look over the prices realized list from the just closed Frank Robinson sale? It struck me that there were more than usual where the winning bid was far above the second bid ($50 or $100 reductions?). We are used to seeing such things in the big name sales but it seems to be invading the low end sales as well. What does this indicate? Opinions? I hope to see posts of your winnings when you get them but I never suggest posting coins still in the mail. Jinx? http://www.fsrcoin.com/results106.htm
It is the best although somewhat risky strategy for bidding in FSR's auctions: it deters people from bidding a second time when their too-low bid is registered. They receive an email saying "not enough, you'll have to bid ten thousand dollars if you want to win the lot", and they give up.
The french auction house CGB has been doing this for years now. It's useful as, in addition to the price realized, it indicates what the winning bidder was willing to pay for the said item. Most often, the second bidder will (privately) complain for having been out bid by 5 or 10 bucks, when the high bid was tens or hundreds above. It gives a better idea of what the market really is IMO Q
I took a pass in this auction unfortunately, just bought an apochromatic refracting telescope for $2400 for my other hobby. I'll bid on the next one though.
Just curious: At what distance can you fill the field with a denarius? Perhaps we can rise to new heights in coin photography?
I think that's pretty interesting showing what the high bid was versus what the lot closed at. Full disclosure - I've never participated in any of his auctions but perhaps in the future.
Oof. Don't remind me. I've desired and been thrilled with the labyrinthian coins of knossos since I read my first book on ancient Greek coinage. So I struck, and hard, when I saw that beauty in Frank's auction...and, of course, I got smoked like a cheap cigar. ...though he did have some other really cool stuff that I did get, man my heart was set on her... Oh, and to answer the question: the cat is out the bag. Frank has great things at great prices. Now that some with more know, people with less gotta get 'mo.
Sorry, Ryro, I was the one who won that one. I've been on the hunt for one of these for a few years now, and I recall that within about 20 minutes of Frank sending out his auction notification e-mail, my bid for it was already in. I probably made the bid stiffer than it had to be, but I wanted a decent shot at winning it. The type does come up for sale every now and then, so I'll keep an eye out for them and let you know whenever I spot one.
Since I had saved the results of FSR 103, I thought I would crunch the numbers for a quick comparison: As you can see, for FSR 106, there's an increase in terms of the average percentage reduction achieved off the max bids. However, I don't know if 2.8% is significant given the variables at play (number of bidders, available budget, selection of coins being offered, etc), and definitely not if it represents a trend since this is a comparison between just two auctions. Frank has said in the past that the average reductions are generally in the region of 15%. Drilling a little deeper... the highest percentage reduction achieved in FSR 103 was 68%. Highest achieved in FSR 106 was 86%, for Lot 401, a Justinian I follis, which was won for $35... on a max of $250 ... Three other lots in FSR 106 achieved outsized reductions in the 70% range. Lot 245, a Commodus denarius winning bid $85 on max $350; Lot 195, a Nero denarius winning bid $110 on max $401; Lot 406, a Maurice Tiberius follis winning bid $25 on max $85. I had considered bidding on the Commodus denarius just because it looked like a nice example, but I wouldn't have paid anywhere close to that max for an unpublished cuirassed bust. The other two just leave me scratching my head. The average price reduction achieved in FSR 103 was $23.45 for 439 lots, and the average in FSR 106 was $27.76 for 412 lots. The biggest reduction in FSR 103 was $625 (Lot 193, posthumous dupondius of Augustus, winning bid $1374 on max of $2000), and the biggest in FSR 106 was $825 (Lot 184, Mark Antony & Octavian denarius, winning bid $1750 on max of $2575). And, just for the record, the reduction I received for my main target (mentioned upthread) was 29.7%. I would have been okay if I had scored it at the average 18% reduced amount, and would have ponied up with some slight grumbling at max, but as it stands, I'm much happier with the actual result.
I just realized, does frank send out an email when your bid gets outbid? Or do you just bid and hope it's enough at the end of the day? I placed 2 bids initially and he replied pretty quickly that one wasn't high enough (I let that one go), but that the other was ok. Never heard from him until I got the email when it closed saying I wasn't successful.
My own experience is that sometimes he does and sometimes he doesn’t. This time around I received an email from him about a week before closing telling me that some of my bids had been exceeded. Given the non-automated nature of his one-man operation, I don’t actually expect to receive the outbid notices. What I sometimes do is email him a day or two before the auction ends if I want to check on how my bids are holding up.
I can't believe I missed this one! A really nice Domitian as Ceasar As went very cheap, lot 205. I need a Frank Robinson Auction alarm clock.
I won 4 of the 6 lots I was interested in, so I'm pleased. I'll post a few of them when they arrive and I can photograph them properly. Frank is a one-man operation and you should never count on getting a notification you've been outbid. He is very willing, however, to let you know how your bids are holding up if you send him an e-mail the day of or before the auction. The best strategy is to simply bid the most you're (honestly) willing to pay and accept the results as stoically as possible, saying, "Well, that coin went to someone who wanted it more" if you get outbid.
This is one of hose tricky math deals. (250-35)/250 is .86 but the coin was purchased for about 1/7 of the original bid meaning the bid could have bought six additional coins if Frank had a bunch. That sounds like an even better deal. The next question lost on me is why anyone saw this coin as $250. More than $35, yes. That much more?
I think the strategy was to put in an early bid for a CRAZY amount, so that when anyone else bid on it, Frank would tell them, "Sorry, you'll have to go $255" and the competitor would (obviously) decline. The risk you run, should you decide to adopt that strategy, is that two people might have the same strategy, the second bidder putting in a bid for $300 and ending up having to pay 700% of the coin's value for the thing.
That makes sense, and what I had done (it was a pretty low offer), but was just curious about how it worked and confirm what to expect. Thanks for the tips!
I’ve said it a few times. I really like Franks auctions and am glad he does it this way with reduced bid pricing. Now I’m waiting on my single win to arrive.
