A Time in Circulation to Grade Ratio

I've always wondered how long it takes for a coin in circulation to reach various grades. Is there a ratio out there that shows how much time a coin has been in circulation and what grade it should have? Or how much a coin wears out based on how much time it's been in circulation? For example a coin that has been in circulation for 20 years will be XF and a coin that has been in circulation for 100 years will be VG. It's always interesting how some cents from 1793 are about as flat as can be while others are mint state. And how some early 1900s silver is worn out pretty well, while other coins from the same dates aren't.

 

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I think the question is too vague. What does circulation mean? Exchanged hands every day? Sat in someone's coin jar for most of its life? If we could measure how many commercial transactions it has been used for then perhaps we could get a better guesstimate.

 

I'd say used a few times a week. Sitting in a jar or vault wouldn't count. Something like how many transactions it has been used for would be good too. Basically if it was in your pocket every day, how long would it take to get to X or Y grade.

 

I have a 64 Kennedy that’s spent a couple years in my pocket. It started as a high AU/low MS and now it has lost its luster and probably would grade 45 or 50. That tells me that even a soft metal like silver takes time to wear down. However, we should keep in mind that the “workhorse” denominations were real money back in their day and most likely changed hands much more frequently than coins do today. Now even quarters spend a lot of time lying loose on the table or in jars.

 

I can't give you any specific answers, for the reasons mentioned above.

I can tell you, however, that you can try to figure this out for yourself using common circulating denominations:

Go to the bank, and get a dozen rolls of a widely used denomination (quarters probably circulate the most). Sort them out by date. What you'll find is that coins from the 90s are probably still high EF, 80s will be VF+, 70s will be F-VF, and 60s will probably be F at most. If you're really lucky, you might even find some silver. From this simple investigation, you'll get a really good feel for how coins wear as they age and circulate.

 

That would apply to current coins in circulation, but I would argue that coins wore down faster in the past. The change in our pockets has very little buying power so therefore it just sits around before enough accumulates to cash in. But just imagine if each quarter was equivalent to a 5 dollar bill. That was its buying power 100 years ago. I doubt many people back then could have afforded to let their change sit in a jar, because they needed it for day to day expenses, and so each coin changed hands much more frequently.

 

Another thing worth considering is that clad coins and silver coins probably wear differently. I’m inclined to believe that a silver-copper alloy would wear faster than a copper-nickel alloy since the copper-nickel alloy is likely harder. Out of curiosity I did a quick eBay search of 1932, 1942, 1952, and 1962 silver quarters with the following assumptions:

1. Silver quarters did not readily circulate after 1964, so all four dates I checked probably stopped circulating after 1964.

2. An 1932 quarter in AU obviously didn’t circulate much, so I focused on the more worn coins for each date (e.g. - usually the lowest priced BIN coins on eBay) to get an idea of what a “typical” circulated coin would look like for each date.

What I noticed is the 1962s were around AU, the 1952s were in the VF-XF range, 1942s were VG-F, and the 1932s were AG-G. This would mean it takes about 30 years for a silver Washington quarter to wear down to around Good. Obviously my 5 minute eBay endeavor is hardly perfect, but it gives a rough picture of how silver coins may wear.

 

This is why I never carried pocket pieces for very long.

It gives you insight into why circulating coinage has such a high attrition rate.

 

Clad is also lighter so it usually has lighter coins pressing down on them and always has a lower force beneath it.

 

There are still lots of 1965 Washingtons in circulation and I haven’t seen any that would grade as low as good, although they are very noticeably worn down. There are lots of 1930s quarters in AG (including lots of slabbed 32d’s and s’s)with only 30 years circulation. I think it’s due to a combination of softer metal and more frequent use. Circulation of clads in their first 30 years, up to say 1995, is probably a better comparison because even 20 years ago our economy was more cash based and so quarters would have seen more use.

 

Also some coins wore quicker than others due to design. Why the dateless standing quarters and buffalo nickels. And the barber coins. I don’t think it took a lot of time to go from au to vg. You really don’t see a lot of vf and xf barber coins especially halves. Many bust halves though got stored in bank bags. And where the coins were mattered too. How many s and cc mint seated coins and Morgan dollars have you seen well worn as opposed to their eastern counterparts

 

(@cladking proceeds to format many of those answers into a single post)

Nothing to add here, except to remind everyone that that "Best Answer" link is there for a reason...

 

There are so many factors, processes, and happenstance that affect the universe of coins and each individual one that a comprehensive listing of them is truly impossible. But a great deal can be deduced from a good representative sample of any coin. Even each individual coin has a great story to tell and secrets to share. Just because a coin is "typical" in most ways doesn't mean it's necessarily boring since no coin is typical in all ways.

After you look at samples of coins look at price lists and see how value compares to mintages and conditions and you'll see more forces and processes that operated on the coins.

One of the things I've always liked about circulating coinage is the ability to get a representative sample (except to the degree collectors have influenced it). A handful of clad dimes compared to the mintage figures and their individual conditions can be quite interesting, for instance;

http://rooseveltdimes.net/roosevelt-dime-mintage/

 

When I was 10 or 11 years old or so, back in the early 60s, I earned money at a small town bank by wrapping coins for 1 cent a roll. I would search a bag first, set aside the coins I wanted, and replace them with my pay (unless it was halves or sometimes quarters, which took a lot more). So I literally searched hundreds of thousands of coins over about a 4 year period. Because early standing liberty quarters and buffaloes lost their dates, they circulated until they wore out, but others were removed quickly from circulation by collectors if they were decent dates or just older dates in nice shape. For fun I once assembled two full rolls of dateless quarters, which caused a panic among the tellers because the rolls, and presumably the average coin, by then roughly 35-45 years old, were about 75% of normal weight and thickness. I never saw a Barber quarter and seldom saw recessed date standing liberties, then about 30-35 years old. When I did, they were usually in no better than G or occasionally VG, rarely Fine. Earlier Washington quarters 20-35 were almost never better than Fine and frequently only VG or even less, while the more recent quarters would sometimes be up to AU even at two or three years old. The 1965 clad quarters (over 50 years) I see today are usually better than 20-year-old silver I would see then.

The buffalo nickels fared better than the silver, and dateless buffaloes were likely to be otherwise G or better, and 1936-38 buffaloes in VF or even XF were not too rare in 1963-65 circulation, perhaps having spent time in jars. On the other hand, if I found a better date, it usually was well worn, indicating collectors were affecting the total population in circulation.

Mercury dimes were still common, and the wear patterns were similar to quarters. No Barber dimes, and earlier Mercs were usually no better than AG - VG, but again, collectors had made a dent in better dates, and my 1921 and 21 D were low AG. Mercury dimes 1941-45 could sometimes be found that would easily pass for AU or even UNC, but were usually F-VF after 20 years, like many clads after 50 years.

I was still working in the bank, but as a teller, until 1970, and by then almost all the silver had disappeared.