Experiences with US Coin Digest 2018

There's so much bad in the best of us, and so much good in the worst of us, it hardly behooves any of us to talk about the rest of us". Truce?

 

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At one of my coin club meetings last night, we were looking at something else in the "Red Book", and there was a paragraph in a VERY early page (Page 3 in the 2002 Red Book, but may be page 11 in the latest ones) where it SPECIFICALLY states what makes coins prices go up and down.

Having read it again last night, and having read threads here lately, there WILL BE people here on CoinTalk that will TRY to dispute the very stout wisdom in that Red Book paragraph, MAYBE even a distinguished moderator or two here.

BELIEVE THE RED BOOK!!! IGNORE THE COINTALK MAVENS!!!

 

No, that should make prices go DOWN, not UP. And it has.
Prices have been going down, and PRECISELY because of reasons 1, 2, 3 and 4 of the reasons listed in the Red Book. By the way, Doug, nice try to intentionally use the wrong time frame there, ol' buddy. Who is talking 10 years here besides YOU???!??! The OP was using a time frame of the last few years. Metals are basically down for that period, so yes, ALL FOUR reasons exist and all explain what's going on in the marketplace. So you doubt hoards coming on the market? Boy, you don't get around much anymore, do you? I am seeing RECORD numbers of "fresh to the market" put back solid date rolls of old dates at nearly every show. It's been the prime way I'm adding to my medium tough Merc dime dates.

And to repeat myself (ad nauseum), the MAIN way hoards of coins are coming onto the market is DEATHS. (The ultimate non-voluntary collecting habit change?)

You sure are in the sophistry Hall of Fame, aren't you, you little devil, you?

But you're right about one (two?) thing - reasons 1 and 3 are probably the biggest ones working right now. Perhaps we'll soon see what effect #4 has been having.

 

BTW, I have looked into the coins that make up the PCGS3000 index, and I do feel they are pretty heavily weighted to "old school" higher end desired coins. The average collector doesn't own many coins on the index. Problem is - the higher end is where the market is strongest. The "weekend collector" market might even be WORSE than the 3000 index would suggest.

 

Two fresh rolls of 1912-S Nickels ending up at PCGS last year comes to mind. Technically not a hoard but I am sure that has happened more than once recently

Remove the 3CN and generic grade Saints and especially the classic commens which are a large chunk of it on its own and it would probably look very different.

 

Funny that, 3CN's and classic commems are mostly my main targets lately. Told ya', committed contrarian.

 

Time to segue into "world coins" mode for me. I'm skipping Tampa FUN and doing the NYINC instead this year. Got a good Tampa flight quote, but the room rates are killing me. Too cold in the northeast and people are fleeing south. Wait a week, get my world freak on, take in a Broadway show, cheap NYC hotel rates, VOILA!

 

Certainly living up to it with those targets. At the rate they're going you're going to need a bigger house to store them all

 

How is the NYINC show?

 

Well, those and picking off literal Dansco 7070 holes with nicer pieces.

 

Hard to say. It's the first year at a new site. The Waldorf was claustrophobic and like a maze. It's now right on 42nd Street at Grand Central. It used to be down at the World Trade Center but they "had issues" in 2001. The prominence of ancient coins is palpable. But if you're into ANYTHING in world coins, there is no better place to look at high end stuff. Yes, there's lower end stuff too, but you won't "steal" anything in a junk box there. These dealers know what they have in world coins.

My favorite technique is to examine unphotographed lots from the auctions and cherry pick.

 

That kills the fun a little but it is kind of tempting to go see whats there. I'm not an ancients guy but I could browse world coins all day. Do the prices get an NYC bump like pretty much everything else in that city?

 

I'd say "no", EXCEPT for not being able to get ridiculous bargains in junk bins. These dealers are ALL ABOUT creating a loyal customer base. To me, going to do business and after hours fun and frivolity with Allen Berman, aka the King of Bermania, is worth the trip.

 

Sure it is. It's reason #1. When collectors die, and fewer newbs of similar collecting budgets replace them, that is the PRIMARY DEFINITION of a "change in collecting habits". You simply HAVE TO stop thinking at the individual level and view the market as one big sloppy amorphous whole, which it is.

Example? You used to collect quite a bit. Who replaced you? And can I have the URL of the site that HE moderates? Please?!?!?!?

Look Doug, you and baseball21 can stay in denial all you like, but ABSOLUTELY EVERY SOURCE I read other than CoinTalk insists this hobby is in decline.

 

And give classic commems there own market since most of them have been falling since what the mid to late 80s

 

Yes, commems can be considered a world apart because there is an easily discerned rhyme and reason anyone might, or might not, choose to consider them part of the core hobby, just as some consider ANYTHING "made for collectors" (e.g. proofs) not part of the core. I sincerely doubt Dansco would produce their albums both ways otherwise. (In cents, I use both. I keep my "main set" up to date with proofs included, but I have a discontinued 1935-date Lincoln cent Dansco with no proofs. For that one, all new current year items must be plucked from circulation.) Hey, my book, my rules.

 

I consider everything part of the hobby, tokens collectors as well ect. It's just that when discussing the market and pricing when you have one segment that has been falling in value for decades with such a large number of coins you get different pictures whether or not it's included. I had forgotten why I disliked that index so much until I just looked it up after you mentioned you did and the inclusion of the classic commens and saint grades which really just trade as bullion is a major reason.