Experiences with US Coin Digest 2018

At the risk of being redundant, I really love CoinTalk. As I have mentioned before, I've been reading it daily for over 4 years, but just this week decided to join (in).

I love that this is a microcosm of the real world, centered on coins. All people are united by their lives on our planet, even though our lives are vastly different from one another. Our special little microcosm is united by our coins (I should probably include paper & exonumia) even though we all do it differently, with different goals & expectations.

I collected my first coin in the 1950's, then really got going as a newsboy delivering "NewsDay". I would go through each coin, then discovered to my amazement, that the bank would actually give me silver dollars for the coins I turned in!!!! Wow!

From age 15 to my mid 50's I did little "active" collecting (yes, I'm really going somewhere with this story) and I did not actually "buy" a coin until the mid-1990's.

Two years ago I got the "Coin Manage USA" software to start cataloging the collection & make it easier for my heirs to know what's there. My latest data indicates that I have a total "cost" of cataloged coins of $7,303. Of these, the most I paid for a coin was around $650. NOTE: My cost was 100% DISPOSABLE income! I could have just as easily flushed it down the toilet & not missed it (but remember, this is over 50 yrs of accumulation). The software does periodic updates of the "current value" & it is nearing $20K. So while that looks like a satisfactory return, to quote Rhett, "Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn!"

I have another 2,500 or so coins which haven't made it to the catalogue yet, & most probably never will, because of my extremely eclectic collecting habits.

My collection includes both raw and encapsulated coins (see, already I know some of you don't like encapsulated!). I have MS coins, all the way down to "G" - but I guarantee I have coins which were touched by the likes of Franklin, Jefferson, Adams, etc., I just can't prove which ones! I have foreign coins (mostly French, English & Irish) and focus on circulated coins from historical periods (ie, French Revolution, American Revolution, 1812, & Civil War periods - common coins actually carried by people of those times. And my Rosa Americana which I previously posted on a different thread! I also have a modest collection of US paper currency, about 50-60 bills total. I do not (yet?!?!) have any ancients, although I do read the ancient threads daily. I'm still so afraid!!!

So back to goals & expectations - although we are inextricably bound by our attractions to coins, our goal, expectancies & especially our experiences are different.

If I need cash, I have other much more fluid funds from which to draw. Coins may be easy to sell, but not easy to sell at the price I may want (I should note here that I have never, ever sold a coin, although I have given some away). Not at my level of collecting anyway. If my heirs want to dispose of part or all of the collection at even 1/2 it's "value", it's 100% profit for them - remember, it was disposable money to me! I suppose the main difference in selling, or shall I say the "investment" of coins would be in the rarified air of the DMCCS ("Dead Millionaires Coin Collecting Society") where a single coin may bring a 5 or 6 figure number - but that's not the majority of us.

Coin "investing" for "personal" gains is probably not really practical, but I understand the need to know the marketplace, & charts & graphs are certainly a "tool" to understanding. But if history is any teacher, the effect of time is a critical element to the "Investment".

News flash: Just this very morning (12/15) "Motley Fool Stock Advisor" issue a "Buy" for Vail Resorts. Do you think they're expecting snow? (I occasionally read their stuff for the satire, comic relief, & the hope that someday they will accidentally include a bit of info which may be worthwhile. Otherwise they're just sheep herders.)

This reminds me of "stacking". Remember, when a stock moves, it basically means someone HAS confidence in it & someone equally DOESN'T (unless we're looking at an Enron situation, which is an entirely different matter). Or let's look at bookmaking (OK, you librarians, get out!). A bookmaker doesn't care who wins & who loses, his take is the juice! His intent is to get equal amounts on each side of his book so he can pay the winners, so he (or she) adjusts the "points" spread to move the betting money from one side of the book to the other to even it out. Stackers, does this sound familiar? Really I'm not picking on stackers, just want to point out that some members here are collectors, some are stackers & some are both. It's a very personal thing.

Wow, how long have I been on this thread?

Just sayin', don't get so wrapped up in the charts & graphs & go play with your coins...OK folks, nothing to see here, just move along....!

 

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Sometimes, Kurt, you might have interesting things to say, and you might have a good point.

However, your style and the way you attempt to say it are really aggravating. Would it be possible to tone it down just a little bit and explain your points in a logical and coherent fashion, rather than full blast attack?

 

Marketers who deny that's what they're doing tick me off. Always have, always will. "Base" has an agenda - a VERY specific atypical self-serving agenda that he's promoting, and it ticks me off to no end.

 

As a whole maybe over 10 years, but the reason I hate that chart is it’s like the dow. Many many things have increased during that time but such a broad chart will not show that.

What happens in the 80s is irrelevant price wise now for the market. If someone only wants to look at charts and thinks that’s indicitive of everything they won’t see the actual market. Generics are certainly down, some series are as well but not every one and price records are being set but the chart won’t show that because it’s to broad

 

So what is exactly right. So what what if it isn’t what some one is looking for.

Actually there are massive comparisons between that and the dow ect. It doesn’t matter what a chart of the whole is doing all that matters is what you’re looking for is doing. It’s no different, not every stock crashed when the dow was down just like not every stock is up now. Plenty of coins are up and some by large amounts over the last few years while others are down. Using a chart like that gives no real information for an area of interest in the exact same way the Dow gives you no information on a specific stock.

 

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I only used your post to show that investments in the S&P 500 are a very good indicator that investors are the main difference in price changes. Has nothing at all to do with the Hobby. The second that it does, it isn't a hobby anymore. The second part of that post was aimed at @V. Kurt Bellman, who has been a stout supporter of the grave digging crew.

 

Or someone could actually look at real time data/results/trends for what matters to them, but that might get in the way of options

 

It's not a hobby AT ALL for far too many here. They're making a living off it, at least in part.

 

Happy New Year Everyone!

I started this thread, and it has taken me some time to answer it, because I lost motivation and got a bit upset by how the conversation turned out.

I just asked a couple of simple questions I hoped to discuss and get some feedback on:

- Does anyone have any insights to explain (if) any systematic underlying factors for the price adjustments?
- Or any other explanations for the specific examples mentioned above?

There has been some good answers which I appreciate, and also attempts to interpret the graphs of the overall price developments published by PCGS. Looking at the graphs themselves does not answer my question. It just shows a significant downturn in prices overall - but it does not explain WHY. And within that data there are of course areas that goes up and areas that goes down - but in aggregate prices seems to have decreased in recent years. Where the highest contributing weights for up and downs are, I don't know.

Some commentators mentioned and attempted to answer my question about systemic underlying factors for what I was seeing in my price guide (US Coin Digest 2018 vs. 2016). Macro-economic factors, unemployment, tax-levels..etc etc. And it was also mentioned interest in the hobby in itself - drawing analogies to the sport-cards "craze" of the 80s and 90s. Or the fact that we are moving towards a more cash-less society than before where coins and papermoney is something thats not as much part of our daily life.

After I started the thread I have also looked at more coins and the developments between my 2016 and 2018 catalog. For some coins, like the Morgan Dollars, it seems like several have also increased in value - but some of the highest graded ones have decreased - but that again depends on year and mintmark. So it seems hard to say anything completely conclusive. And I guess part of my question was also how these different price guides collect their data (redbook, coin digest, pcgs, ngc etc.) thus perhaps explaining how certain coins like my example fluctuated so much in 2 years only.

Anyways, I am just an intermediate experienced collector who loves to collect US coins as a hobby. In the beginning I started an "Eliasberg-approach" - trying to collect absolutely everything before 1964 - every denomination (except gold), every series, every year and mintmark - and sometimes detailed varieties therein.

After a while I realized I ended up with too much, too broad focus and too many coins and series with lower qualities - as well as it was financially impossible to complete anything. Thus a need to narrow focus, interest and expenditures.

So based on my few years of US coin collecting including looking at the price developments - I have summarized my takeaway's with the hobby as of now:
- Buy the coins I love the most (based on design and/or historical significance)
- Buy more books and read/study more (the utility/expense ratio is normally much higher)
- Focus on the series I love the most and sell other incomplete ones
- Buy the highest quality coins I can afford
- Sell duplicates to keep the hobby rolling
- Watch regular expenses and don't let the hobby get in the way of other (more) important parts of life - but don't be afraid to break the budget once in a while if necessary

I guess I have derailed the topic of the thread somewhat here too - but it would be interesting to hear from you guys too how you as collectors have changed the strategy and plan of your collection depending on changes in market conditions, age, knowledge and interest.

Thanks,
Lars

 

Lars,

To me it's obvious. First, consider that at NO POINT is the population of collectors static; there are always collectors dying, and there are always new ones entering the hobby.

My thesis is that the number of DOLLARS (not necessarily collectors, per se, but probably that too) chasing the available collector coins out there is DECREASING.

Why?

Millennials are not making what has been "normal" incomes for their ages, and spend far more heavily on things such as tech. This leaves less available for collecting stuff. This is NOT just a coin phenomenon. It applies to nearly ALL antiques and collectibles.

There is a guy who does a weekly syndicated radio program that has a nationwide, but spotty, affiliate of network stations who does antiques and collectibles. His name is Harry A. Rinker, and he knows A&C perhaps better than ANYONE out there. He writes, he does this radio program, he's an expert appraiser, etc. The whole shmeer.

Rinker is CONSTANTLY talking about the recession/depression in collectibles prices. It's real! And it applies to coins as much as anything else.

 

So Zen, so meta.

 

I also think I would prioritize paying my student loans, mortgage/rent and other food and living expenses before on my hobby...and when the left-over disposable income at the end of the month perhaps have also decreased for the general public (or for the Millennials as a subgroup) I guess the financial capability is less there than before.

It is also interesting to discuss the recruitment into the hobby and how it affects the coinmarket. I recently read Bowers Guide Book to Morgan Silver Dollars and how thousands of collectors were born looking for the Small D 1960 Lincoln cent and as a result of the Treasury Release of 1961-1964 and the GSA-auctions of the 70s. I Norway, where I live, something similar happened in the late 60s where ten thousands of collectors where recruited looking for the famous 1968 2 øre in their pocket change due to its low mintage, high value and following media attention.
So how does young people get involved with coin collecting today to keep a steady stream of recruitment? I am not sure there have been or will be any similar events like exemplified above - but perhaps through other activities like metal detecting, coin-roll hunting (have only heard about that in the U.S.) or general interest in history. Broad marketing of commemorative coins with historical significance could be an entry-level activity for some.

 

I totally agree with your reasoning, and also dont think there is a complete answer to what the underlying reasons are, but its still interesting to discuss potential reasons I think because it says something of the development of trends which is interesting

 

And regarding your sheep analogy - the examples mentioned above (treasury release of morgans, hunt for small D 1960 penny and the norwegian example) fit well with that.

 

When the DOW starts dropping I expect the coin indices to change direction.