Buying coins with the market in a downward Spiral

Since the original post from you, the conversation has taken quite a turn from what you were wanting to talk about. For what it's worth, here's my 2 cents;

COIN Collecting, can be an extremely enjoyable hobby, for anyone, no matter the budget they have to work with. Those with a low end budget, need to choose wisely about their purchase, to make sure that the item being purchased , is something that they WANT or NEED for their collection. Those with an unlimited, (or very large), budget, can pretty much buy whatever they desire, whether they need it or want it.

Being a "Collector", (not just coins, but any item), pretty much follows the same rules, with the exception, that lower budget "Collectors", may buy a coin, stamp, currency, picture, sports card, knife, etc., one time, and a different item the next time. Normally when collectors purchase precious metal objects, they try to buy it when the market price is low, and sell it when market prices rise, unless they purchased the item for themselves.

I have been Coin Collecting now for the better part of 45 years, and from what I can make of your post, you have quite an opportunity in front of you. I'm not sure just how familiar you are with coins, as an investment, but you DID happen to mention one of the most expensive coins in the market, (1893-S Morgan), so I'm assuming that you know a little something about coins.

The items that you mentioned later in the forum, shows that they have a variety of different coins and such. My advice to you would be, to save up and wait until they are actually ready to sell, and then scoop it up ASAP. You mentioned that you had a chance to look through most of the items they have for sale, but that doesn't negate the possibility, of finding a key date coin, once the transaction has been completed, and you have the time to do a closer inspection, of the items purchased in the sale.

I wish you good luck with the deal, and I hope you find something in the mix, that will make you feel good about the purchase you made. Merry Christmas

 

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The economics of generations has changed. Starting with Teens and just preteens, who is working, and who is on allowance? The young are more fad buyers than ever before. As graduates of college, they are in debt. Rent and food can be a luxury. Technical goods like computers and cell phones tap resources more than any of us did with coins when we where young. Even more, getting a find from change is harder than ever. Small apartments make collections less desirable. News comes from something other than news papers, where coin columns were once a thing. The Internet could play a role in rebirth of the hobby, which is a very old hobby. Awareness of its lick to history and the study of economies would go a long way to recreate interest.

 

I think the lack of finds in pocket change has a large effect of collecting also. Especially, the fact that coins are now base metals and not silver. The State Quarters program helped spur interest, but when collectors discovered that the finished product really didn't have any value, a lot of them were turned off. This is shown by the lack of any real interest in the America the Beautiful quarter program. At my coin club auctions, modern coins don't do very well, but the classics go and at a good price.

 

I found when I had people wanting to sell off a collection . The first thing that I would do is tell them not to clean anything in hope if it is shiny they may get a better dollar. I also point out that they should educate themselves with the grading process , and get an idea that just because it is an old coin does not make it worth a lot of money. Furthermore the condition plays a big factor on older coins and their value. I tell them to do some research prior to a viewing , and I also tell them that older silver coins in good condition that sell fast I would be able to pay them a better percentage as opposed to those in tough condition and newer items that are easily attainable. Most people think dad or granddad left them a bankroll and like someone else mentioned it can be quite deflating when they find out that a coin in a book that says it is worth $300.00 , but do to condition be worth 25 dollars. Sometimes a person comes across a nice collection that makes it worth paying a good dollar to buy either for resale or for keeping. Those types of collections are far and few between. Thank you everyone.

 

I recently liquidated a coin collection for the spouse of a member of the coin club I belong to. I think that from that experience, I will tend to shy away from doing it again. I later found out that when he was diagnosed with cancer, he started to sell his better coins himself. His daughter told me he used the money, without telling his wife, to go to Mexico to treat his cancer there. Basically little of what was left had very little value. I set up a table at a coin meeting, put up a sign and picture telling what I was doing, and most of the club members dropped a twenty on the table and didn't bother taking any coins. I was able to get her approximately $2,500 for what was really worth a few hundred dollars. The no good deed goes unpunished went into effect here, she told me she thought his collection was worth a lot more than what I got her, when it was worth a lot less and she was not happy.

 

Mont, that is a really sad story. I'm glad you were able to help your friend!

I'm not sure that really says much about the state of the market, as opposed to the decisions your friend made.

I'm pretty sure we all have a bunch of coins that are practically worthless, but we keep either because they are too hard to sell, or just aren't worth the hassle.

 

This brings up a point I have been thinking about recently, too. A friend asked be to look at sets of Lincolns, Buffalo nickels, and Mercury dimes put together by a deceased relative. It was amazingly poor quality - as if the collector went out of their way to find the most worn circulated pieces they could find.

This is an area where I think a change is being seen. I think this kind of bulk circulated - dare I say - garbage, has seen its day and will pretty much be unmarketable. If you have an album that nags you to fill in a hole with something, and could pull it from circulation, you would set aside these coins. Not now.

I'm not sure that new collectors want to fill books from circulation. If the internet has brought a new era and approach, it is to match a collector with good examples of what they want while breaking down the boundaries of series collecting from what you can find in pocket change.

I see sales prices from Heritage, Stacks & Bowers, and Legend, and realize I'm not in that league and never will be. But someone is buying this, and throwing serious money around to get what they want. I could not begin to speculate whether these are numismatists who just happen to be very wealthy, or the very wealthy who are investing in a speculative commodity. Nonetheless, that area seems amazingly robust.

I won't be participating in the high end or in the bulk garbage end, either. What I do think is that the vast amount of low-end coins do not, and will not, have a market. That's disappointing for those who have them, but should not affect the numismatist who finds that every coin they want is available to them in grades they can appreciate, often in reach of a modest budget.

The market may be changing, but I think its a maturation, not a collapse.

 

Excellent comment, especially the part about the true numismatist buying what THEY like, or need for themselves.

 

What amazes me is why ANYONE EVER was satisfied with putting G or AG coins in their collections, outside of (in)famous rarities. Even then, I'd rather have an empty hole in an album than put some schlock piece in there.

But I guess that once was the zeitgeist.

 

Kurt in Your hell every hole in every album of yours will contain a schlock piece that won’t come out.......ever! Don’t jinks yourself Buddy Lol.

 

What if the collection is entirely of well worn coins?

 

Then it's entirely junk. Even if it IS a slabbed set.

 

There is a sub group of collectors that try to fill an album with all AG-G coins in the series.

 

Why not a set with dog feces deposits on every coin?

 

Well back in the day these albums were filled with coins that were pulled from circulation. People weren't spending money for a better condition Merc, when they could just take one from pocket change. The hobby wasn't about putting MS-66 coins in every hole.

 

I believe that you should buy what you like (an can afford), to me that's the definition of a collector. If you buy what you think will appreciate in value, you're an investor. So for a collector, a downturn in the market is an excellent time to buy.

 

...and THAT is the part of the hobby that nearly HAS died, for better or worse. And this inevitably results in a huge oversupply in the market of well circulated coins, which in turn lowers their market value. The value to grade slope goes ever higher.

All you have to know to see what's going on is look at the rapidly declining prices of 1950-D nickels, which are almost unheard of in anything below AU, because nearly ALL of them were hoarded and they're now flooding the market.

 

In my experience, there are a lot of YNs out there that are still filling those holes in Whitman Folders, they're just using the later date folders, such as 1959 and on Lincoln Cents that can still be found in circulation. We give these sets, with them about half filled to YNs at our meetings all the time.

 

Kurt, your talking about something that happened almost 70 years ago. Yes, people were buying uncirculated rolls of 1950-D Jefferson Nickels, but that was because they were lead to believe they were rare and a good investment. How many times, to a lesser degree has that happened with a coin since then? People still put aside the first year of issue of a new design. I picked up a few rolls of the 2017-P Lincoln Cents knowing full well that the Mint probably will make a billion of them.The more educated (the main purpose of this forum) a collector becomes, the less chance of this happening. Of course there's the TV Coin Shows, that every coin they sell will go up in value 500% and is an extreme rarity.