The problem I find is that items with zero or one bid usually have a starting bid that is too high to begin with. Regardless we can't get away from the fact that desirable items in a true auction are going to have lots of competition. Coins that are overpriced or junk for the grade are easier to win in an auction.
I have a disease that requires me to take a pill at 3:00am. If I find that I'm wide awake, I'll check eBay for coins that are ending at or near that time. It seems that many eBay Sellers have insomnia, because it's incredible the number of coins that close at that time. I'm not talking about people 6 times zones away, but within one or two time zones. This works for me and I've been able to get my best eBay buys at that time.
I have won a few auctions, but I'm primarily a bargain BIN person. There are lots of buy it nows that are lower priced then what the same coin typically goes for in an auction. I just picked up a 1934 Texas Commem PCGS MS65 for $150 (free shipping), which is less then all but one of the graded Texas Commems that sold at auction. I'm also impatient, and once I find one I want at a price I'm willing to pay, I grab it.
Add tto my above post about eBay Sellers ending there auction at or near 3:00am when I take my medication, there are BINs that also end at that time. I also look for error listings, the kind where the Sellers incorrectly lists his/her item. I mentioned in an earlier post, a Seller listed a 1965 SMS as a 1968 SMS in MS 68. I immediately won the coin for $154 a great price for a coin in rare condition. The Seller later informed me that he caught the error, but because I had bid on the coin, eBay wouldn't let him correct the date error. He was not angry at me and we have since developed a good business relationship. I've since bought coins from him and have always received a fair and near wholesale price. I believe I can name his store- OC Rare Coin and Bullion in Casa Mesa, CA.
Your "actual value" amounts are questionable. Where did you derive the values? I use archives/TPG-values! In the last week I've bid on 4 competitive auctions with an average of ~25 bids, for top tier TPG certified scarce coins (3 tough date/grade Indian Gold half-eagles, 1 tough date PCGS/CAC MS66 FB Mercury). I won all 4 by a $5-$10 greater bid than my nearest competitor, at an average price ~30% below the past market values. I believe the majority of bidders really believe the "fantasy" bid values published in C.D.N documents. I'm to understand many Dealers are shaking their heads wondering "what are they thinking" believing the average dealer can use CAC bid values as a basis for buy prices. I'm reasonably certain that the average realistic dealer isn't using C.D.N. bid values to purchase, but if you are, I understand your problem. I've been told that numerous dealers have, as you, expressed their concerns. As an aggressive friend of mine says: "who cares about the 99 out of 100 who don't approve, I'm just looking for the 1 who does"! I guess if one can publish their best found value as an average basis, only the courts can determine legality, as these documents are merely price guides. I don't believe you'll receive too many complaints from your "significant other" about your hobby investments, which may have a benefit that offsets your auction losses. JMHO
Using eBay's bid option where you enter a maximum amount that you are willing to pay oftentimes encourages bidders to bid higher than they might otherwise. What I now do is determine the maximum I would pay for a coin and let an automatic bidding app submit the bid during the last few seconds. This way the time an auction ends is not an issue, and the chance of bidding against people who's ego won't let them lose is diminished.
When I buy on E-bay I put a limit on what I will pay for that coin. Now if it is a coin that is in demand or that I want very badly then the limit is raised. Do I win all of the auctions not hardly but I do enjoy myself and get some nice coins. Oh yeah I have been burned a few times but nothing so serious that I could not recover from. Remember buyer beware.
