Just got around to reading the latest Coin World. They printed my letter! I'm now a published author! Okay, maybe that's pushing it a bit.
For some reason I can't find my original. Probably named it something that I can't remember and doesn't make sense now. So I've made a copy of the letter as posted in Coin World (it was edited a bit.) Since it was my letter I don't think I've violated too many copywrite laws (I hope.)
One problem with line of thinking...every item the mint produces would be generic! The possibility of having modern rarity would be void. I disagree with your statement and say that if a collector is serious and wants an issue from the mint, by all means be prepared to get it in every way. Sorry to burst your bubble, but first come first served. Please take no offense to my statements, I for one will be the first to say that I have missed some good opportunities from the mint's limited production senario, oh well, that's the way it goes! RickieB
More likely quite the opposite would happen. That is after all how the modern rarities that do exist like the Jackie Robinson $5 gold and Capitol Visitor Center $5 gold came to be.
Well I suppose that is a matter of opinion, and everyone is entitled to their own. As it stands, I am pretty certain that when a bill is passed to mint a new coin, mintages are set fourth in that article and well the rest is water under the bridge. All I am saying is that if the Mint were to have total unlimited mintages on all coins, this would lead to the generic circumstance I mentioned. Again just my opinion. If this were true there would be far more than 10,000 20th Ann Gold Set's, Silver set's Spouse Coin's and the list would go on. In the circumstance of the Jackie Robinson coin, the coin collecting hobby at that time was no where near the robust stage that it is currently. All things being created equal, demand is what constitutes the supply, and supply is what creates demand. The blocked out situation mentioned in the article is due to people trying to hoard large lots as a stream of revenue. The mint's order limt will assure the individuals that want a coin the opportunity to get one without being ripped by a greedy dealer! I suppose you could call it a form of sanctioning/rationing the coins to strict limits. This is what I see with the latest Spouse coin. Who knows what will occur on the next release. The open window effect would allow an unlimited amout of coins to be ordered from open to close and we all know what that has done to values. There are a few exceptions as Doug mentioned, but again look at the collector base then and now. Big difference in demand! RickieB
Rickie in all honesty I don't think it has anything to do with mintage limits. I think it has to do with the public's perception and anticipation. Ya see, until very recently sell-outs of mint products were all but unheard of. The only one I can even remember prior to 2 years ago was the Buff dollar an there were 250,000 of those - each. And starting with them, the only reason they sold out was because of speculation caused by all of the talk about them on coin forums before they were ever released. The very same thing is happening now and has been for 2 years. Collectors aren't buying the coins - speculators hoping to make windfall profits are. So it isn't demand driving these sales - it's dollar signs in people's eyes. And if the mint went to unlimited production numbers, I all but guarantee you that interest and speculation would die almost immediately. And as a result mintage numbers would drop dramatically and we would see a whole new batch of mint products with very low mintages. A look back at any of the gold commems of the last 10 years will show you that they all had mintages under 12,000 - most of them under 10,000 for the business strikes. And even the combined mintages of business and Proof were well under 40,000 in all cases but 1. And yet there is no demand, there are no high prices for these coins. And almost every single one of them has a smaller mintage than the Spouse gold. No my friend, it isn't demand driving the value of these coins, it's speculation - greed plain and simple.
Limited quantities is not just with coins. Not sure about other areas of the country but around me I constantly see things advertised as While Quantities Last, Only X Amount Per Store, X Per Customer, Limited Amount Available, Two Hours Only. In other words out entire civilazation is based on a limited amount of many, many items. So why not the Mint? Still nice article and great that you were published. Now you just have to autograph my Monitor Screen. Sign yours and lets see if it goes through. :smile
RickieB[/QUOTE] The mint's order limt will assure the individuals that want a coin will get the opportunity to get one without being ripped by a greedy dealer! My Point exactly, just put in slightly different terms. Greed is on of the 7 Sins and will never be vanquished! RickieB
"Quote from GDJMSP" "A look back at any of the gold commems of the last 10 years will show you that they all had mintages under 12,000 - most of them under 10,000 for the business strikes. And even the combined mintages of business and Proof were well under 40,000 in all cases but 1. And yet there is no demand, there are no high prices for these coins. And almost every single one of them has a smaller mintage than the Spouse gold" Hello Doug, I decided to look these up and this is what I found.... Here are the Gold Commem's. There are some pretty hefty prices on some of them in Uncirc. 1984 $10 Gold Prf P Mint Mark 33,309 " " " D 34,533 " " " S 48,551 " " " W 381,085 Unc= 75,886 1986 Liberty Gold Prf 404,013 Unc 95,248 1987 Constitution Prf 651,659 Unc 214,225 1988 Olympic Prf 281,465 Unc 62,913 1989 Congress Prf 164,690 Unc 46,899 1991 Mt. Rushmore Prf 111,991 Unc 31,959 1992 Olympic Prf 77,213 Unc 27,732 1992 Columbus Prf 79,730 Unc 24,329 1993 Bill of Rights Prf 78,651 Unc 23,226 1993 WWII Prf 67, 026 Unc 23,672 1994 World Cup Prf 89,614 Unc 22,447 1995 Civil War Prf 55,246 Unc 12,735 1995 Olympic Prf Torch 57,442 Unc 14,675 Stadium 43,124 Unc 10,579 Flag 32,886 Unc 9,174 Cauldron 38,555 Unc 9,210 1996 Smithsonian Prf 21,772 Unc 9,068 1997 Jackie Robinson Prf 24,072 Unc 5,174 1997 FDR Prf 29,474 Unc 11,894 1999 GW Prf 41,693 Unc 22,511 2001 Capitol Visitors Center 27,652 Unc 6,761 2002 Salt Lake City Prf 32,877 Unc 10,585 2003 Wright Bro's Prf 21.676 Unc 53.533 2006 San Francisco Prf 44,174 Unc 17,500 2007 JamesTown Prf (not released) Unc (not released) 2006 20th Ann Gold Set Rev Prf 10,000 Wow, what a set that would be to have! RickieB
I do not know about the U.S. Mint, but I believe that in most cases, "limited quantities," is just a phrase being used as a selling gimmick. As a business person selling a product, what do I care if one person buys ten or ten people buy one. I just want to sell the product. Limited quantities is just a way of making the product sound more desirable to the gullible, like those light up corvette coins from Palau- "A strict selling limit of five coins per-person." yeah, right.
Seller (with attempt to convey sense of urgency): "Limited quantities!" Me (with large dose of cynicism): "Yeah, limited to whatever you can sell..."
The Mint will not sell you anything if quantities are gone. It has happened to many. Many stores also do that and that is due to they purchase some items for a absolute minimum and sell it for the same. This is done to bring people into the store and when they are gone, they are gone. You can see the difference when you see things like "No Rainchecks", "While quantities last", etc. naturally there are stores that do that as a come on joke almost. I know people that have gone into a store, purchased something, take out to thier car, go back and buy the limit again and again. Many times at stores I've taken 5 when the sign clearly states 2 limit and at the checkout nothing is said. I highly doubt that if the Mint says sold out and you order more, they will make them for you. But then again, with our government, who knows.
