I've been through this too many times, special editions, Privy marked, proofs, and in boxes , yet almost none will pay more than spot, really, this is why I've been getting rid of this crap and going back to coin, rather than "bullion".
Stuff like that can be pretty, but the market is totally saturated with it, which is no doubt why most people will only pay bullion for it. From a collecting standpoint, I'd agree with your premise that it might be wiser to collect more "classic" collector coins (however you might define that category), than to spend money on mass-produced, mass-marketed, often-gimmicky modern material specially targeted at collectors. From a bullion standpoint, however, if you can get a lot of this modern material you call "crap" at or near spot, then why not go for it? It is often quite aesthetically pleasing, the packaging is usually quite handsome, and the themes (or gimmicks) can be interesting and fun. If you can buy this stuff near spot, particularly during cycles like this when bullion is relatively cheap, I think it would be more interesting than bars and silver rounds. It's all about the price. At retail or issue price, avoid this kind of material unless you've just got to have it. On the afterarket, at or near spot, grab it, stash it away, and have fun with it, if you like. There are worse things to accumulate. However, if like me you have limited means and not a lot of money to tie up in an accumulation of stuff, perhaps it is indeed better to sharpen the focus and limit the pile.
The poster above me covered it. Don't buy that type of material expecting to make a profit. It's too ubiquitous. Everybody has it. It is subject to something close to the 90/10 rule. 90% of it, you'll take a loss. 10% of it, usually precisely when you stop, will appreciate wildly. This is not Murphy's Law. When the prevailing opinion turns to "Don't buy that crap", mintages plummet and keys to the series are created. I offer as one classic example the Atlanta Olympics program coins in 1995-96. People felt abused by the Mint and tons of people decided to quit buying modern commems. Guess what. The Atlanta Olympics coins are aftermarket winners. When issues are popular, wait. When everybody is upset and ticked off, buy extras. Do you have the stomach for that? As it pertains to proof bullion per se (AGE's, APE's) yeah, they're usually losers.
Here's the thing though, those modern bullion coins, in a 100, maybe a 150 years, ya kinda wonder what they might be worth then ? I mean think about it, the Proofs from the 1800's, the business strikes from the 1800's - even those from the early 1900's - what are they worth today ? Back then, all of them were just chunks of bullion too, and most people said - why bother collecting them ? Now don't get me wrong, I agree, they are just chunks of bullion. And our modern clad coins aren't even that ! But what are they gonna be worth 150 years from now ? 'Course that won't do any of us any good, just like the coins from yesteryear didn't do any of the collectors from back then any good. The difference ? The difference is they didn't collect those coins we'd all kill for today hoping to make money on them. They collected them because they liked them Which of course is why you, all of you, should be collecting them today
I don't really see them ever getting to the relative worth of US proofs from the 1800s simply because of populations and the way that they are so protected now with packaging. I say this as one of the few saps that actually collected the entire first spouse runof gold; in business strike and proof no less. I do see them going up with time, but would consider all modern coinage (with the exception of condition rarities) a poor long term investment. Given prices now, generic bullion would likely have the higher return.
Here's the counterpoint to that argument, Kirk. Go put together a full set of 1982-date BU modern commemoratives in OGP, no gold, no bimetallic, no proofs. Just silver and clad in BU. Go! How long will it take you to do it? Unless you come to my place, it's gonna take a while.
That would be difficult. You could get the coins with some difficulty, but getting them with the OGP is tougher because most people discard the packaging and slab the coins. It's a lot easier to get the coins in slabs than in OGP.
Yup, and I'll be darned if I'll ever understand why. I've literally bought coinless packaging, and slabbed coins, broke out the coins and reassembled the OGP. You should SEE my box of coinless OGP packaging for other stuff like proofs. I intend to die getting this stuff the heck out of slabs. My most recent "reunion" was a proof Black Revolutionary War Patriots dollar that was in a 3rd-tier "junk" slab. Somewhere (I've temporarily mislaid it, but I'll find it) I've got an original OGP (The Department of Redundancy Department sent that.) of the 1995 gold eagle with 1995-W Silver Eagle set. That's the Holy Grail of OGP. What's odd is the 1995 set is marked "10th Anniversary" and the 2006 is marked "20th Anniversary". One of them is just stupid wrong. I vote the 2006 set is wrong.
It's fun to speculate on, but rather a moot point, since in 150 years every one of us in this discussion will be worm food - assuming the planet is still supporting life in the form of worms. I do think worms have a future. Humanity, too, probably - just not me personally, after a few decades. And none of my heirs have any interest in coins. So while I'll daydream on such topics for a moment or two, I'll then move on to other things I might conceivably see in this, the remaining latter portion of my life.
That's what makes me THE outlier. I have one and only one heir, and he's as coin nuts as I am. He's 22 and this year he will attend his 7th ANA World's Fair of Money. He would have had 8 except for semi-emergency surgery in 2014 AFTER he registered to attend. He has also attended a few early Spring ANA's, a FUN, and more Whitmans than I can recall. He even has a steady "squeeze" this year and he's STILL carving out 12 days to be with his old man at Denver and Chicago after that. He's probably the ANA's current YOUNGEST certified exhibit judge. My "give a darn" event horizon on the long-term outlook for coins is a MINIMUM of 75 years. I have that luxury. Short term is NOT my "thing".
That would be easy, I'd just have to watch a bunch of the tv guys, they always have the OGP. I get your point, but mine was just based on the coin itself. I would think that the moderns are handled much better overall than the older proofs given all of the ways that we now have to store the coins. Further, the mintages are much higher than nineteenth century proofs overall. To your point, I wouldn't be surprised if the value of the OGP eventually surpasses the worth of the coins themselves.
Hmm, I never even considered it could get THAT far. More than the coins, you say? Hmm. I think that has happened to 1951 British Crowns. Maybe US double mint sets too.
I actually see the First Spouse series as a nearly certain big winner. Not enough budget to have acted on it, though. The medal version has potential also.
Ha good catch. Although the 1995W IS the holy grail of the sets, I feel it has the false claim (considering the first ASE was minted 1986).
What was the 10th year? Count with me. 1986 - 1st year. 1987 - 2nd year. [...] 1995 - 10th year. [...] 2006 - 21st year. During which year between 1995 and 2006 did the numbering system change? Did 2000 have too many zeroes to allow it to count?
Your genius never ceases to amaze me. Perhaps the first set was done when people still counted on their fingers (or abacus) and with the new millennium's crutch (calculator) someone just added 1986+20 like I did (making 1986=year 0). Or maybe they were minted so late in 1986 that they weren't released until 1987? I'm sure there's a very good reason for this. The government never makes mistakes.
By God I love you all, I've been in this game for 40+ years, it's so changed from even 20 years ago, mind set, all different. I know, move or die.
Generally they just come in bags of 100 pieces, but the nicer silver and bronze ones that the krew members give to friends come in these plastic snap cases. They are terrible for storage, but still I can't throw them out. I have several bags of these holders.