How far have coin values fallen?

So the graders were wrong every time the "experts" graded it previously?

 

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Gosh, I wouldn't know anything about random stories or statistics. All I will say is that the YN mentioned this to me in a totally different context than what we are talking about here (one that he brought up), and, to the best of my knowledge, doesn't visit the CT website, so is unaware of this thread.

 

Please note I did not say an indictment of TPGs, but of those who put their faith in them rather than knowing how to evaluate coins, not plastic, for themselves. TPGs do err far more than they would like to admit.

 

I see it as evidence of a very successful business model on the part of both PCGS and CAC. They each got three coins' worth of profit from a single coin.

 

Now, Doug, be fair. I never "the numbers on those graphs don't mean anything"; I said the graph trendlines were deceptive, just because you have to read the numbers carefully to see what they're really saying. (A quick glance makes it look like coins lost nearly all their value from their peak, and that's simply not true.)

But thanks for saving me the effort of reposting the full-scale graph, which makes it all better.

 

The sales for proof sets that year unexpectedly ended early leaving many who hadn't purchased high and dry (also creating relatively low mintages).

 

i have never sold one coin i have collected commeratives and all i have all of them i will never sell i get the best of each that i can and someday yes i will die and i have 16 grandkids that will be happy some are collectors and some dont care they will sell but i have that all worked out so the best go to the collectors

 

I said "lost nearly all their value". You said "lost nearly all their gains [accumulated since 2004]".

If you were unlucky enough to buy at the very peak of the market, that "coin portfolio" has lost about 2/3 of its value. (And if you bought at the peak, it never had any "gains".)

To look at the big graph another way, unless you bought into the portfolio between 1987 and 1991, you're down less than 25%, in terms of the value of your holdings.

I think perhaps "gains" are the wrong thing to focus on -- unless you're buying and selling coins on margin, in which case I'll be smiling and nodding as I back away from you as quickly as I possibly can.

 

So what you're saying is it's a good time to buy coins

 

Silver classic commems are almost FREE now.

 

Yes and no. Yes the prices are good now but don't expect them to go up in value any time soon.

 

...is that an offer...

 

Or worse than modest, if you consider inflation. If you'd bought the PCGS3000 index in 1993 you'd be back where you started today, but down about 40% in today's dollars. And this over a period when the stock market in inflation-adjusted terms roughly tripled.

Admittedly you can pick different time periods to tilt the comparison one way or the other: take it all the way back to 1970 and the coin index wins hands down. The real point here is that when you're evaluating one investment, it matters what the other alternatives are doing.

 

Given today's political climate I wouldn't put much faith in historical records. The disparity in incomes today is not very encouraging.

 

You may be right only time will tell, but for about 2000 years now people have said things like "this time is different" for (fill in the blank thing) for (fill in the blank reasons) and usually it's not the case. It's what leads to people pulling their money out of the stock market at the worst times possible.

 

So true...

 

I would say this, US coin prices have fallen over past ten years. Reason was that they were vastly overpriced considering their true rarity, when compared with Worldwide material. I collect Worldwide including US gold coinage. When looking at auction prices over past 100 years, one notes that high quality gold/silver coins have gone up year after year/ problem was that US material went up way more then Worldwide, thus by 2010 there was a "bubble". Take a England AV Sovereign Henry VII in GEF, same coin realized in UK Pounds, 245/1945 then 700 in 1955, 2700 in 1970, 96000 in 1995, 245,000 in 2015.....that is way over inflation, every owner made a pile of money. Looking at the recent sale of the Dr. Lawrence Adams collection via CNG would prove this point.
John

 

From a supply and demand viewpoint it would tell me that the bubble was caused by increased demand since the supply side didn't appreciably change. What was the driving force for the increased demand?