Graded coins - when will the market crash?

Originally posted by griv: It seems to me that the big advantage with slabs is sight-unseen internet trading. (though I never buy without excellent photos).

This reminds me of one of the arguements for slabbing when it was just being set up: we will be able to trade coins just like stocks! Yeah,right! Don't have to tell anyone here why that doesn't work. Read the post by GDJMSP:knowing your coins will save you trouble and money!

 

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Well, slabbing was touted as a solution to all our grading and authentication problems. Don't see where the coin hobby(or any hobby ) has really gained much. Made some folks a lot more money though. So tell me if you can, did we really settle, once and for all, all our grading problems by the slabbing process? While you think on tht one, let me relate a pet peeve :the scenario is this, I take my mint packaged coins to a dealer to sell. (I expect the going price less maybe 25% to 30% off,fair enough?) I feel my coin is a gem;ms-69 -70 at least. Is it wrong for me to expect the dealer to pay based on the listed gem price for that coin?(Maybe even make an agreement to pay such price after the coin is "professionally" graded?) Hint: Be careful of your answers here,for we are talking ethics! (honesty)

 

Well this has certainly been an interesting thread ~ and it seems the topic is shifting.
I've never known of a dealer to make such a deal - dealers buy & sell (most) by the grey sheet and I've yet to see one mark a mint or proof set 'up' to 69/70 retail based on the gem quality.

I can't imagine a dealer agreeing to such 'I'll give you more if the grade comes back' graded 69/70. My thought is the dealer buys 'as is' at the time the coins are in front of them.

But let me ask this.. would you do that as a buyer?

Would you say 'ok, I'm going to buy this mint set at 'ask' but if it comes back a 69/70 i'll come back and give you more money?

 

The forum button will be returning before graded slab coins disapear as premium items in the market.

Ruben

 

Ramblin' on

Well as I read the threads in this forum it seems we still have a lot of overpriced,overgraded, etc,etc., etc. out there. Authntication services were there through anacs before slabbing became a buisiness. So you've outed me;I've been around awhile. As for pcgs and ngc having saved the hobby.... oh please! But they have done this;most better coins are identified on a more individual basis, which isn't bad. But the junk and problem coins will keep ciculating as they always have! Let me reiterate about my mint packaged commemerative Coin: (I use this as a contemporary example only) It has become standard practice by dealers to offer low prices even when coins are noteably high grade, then slab them and realize hundreds,even thousands of per cent profit.(give me $50-$60 for my Jackie Robinson proof, slab it and sell for $5000) Now explain the fairness,ethiics or honesty in this transaction.(Isn't it a rare modern proof that isn't 69-70?) This has been the norm almost from day one of the slabbing buisness; bring in your raw coins Take low bid,we'll take care of the rest. Well I've never sold my gems that way, but talking to a lot of collectors over the years,for a lot of different reasons many have sold their coins this way. - To CoinGal07- No, I did not ask you a personal question, but yes I believe in the golden rule,yes I have returned the wallet full of money,yes I have made deals with other collectors to purchase based on the anacs grade,Yes I have told dealers when they have badly mismarked items,and no I don't have to live of the misfortunes or mistakes of others! And so you don't misunderstand, I do know dealers who believe the same things and when you find them cherish them!!!!! O yeah' the main question: I doubt that slabbed coins will ever "go away";too many people find them useful for myriad purposes. I see them as another tool to be used carefully in the putting together of a coin collection.

 

EDITED--We do no make rude comments to members on their spelling, or typing pattern

Dear Sir: I would like to read your article, but find it difficult to read. I'm sure it is a my fault alone, but if you would, could you edit your post to more conventional format, with paragraphs and 2 spaces between sentences. I ask this in genuine interest in enjoying your thoughts and ideas and I sincerely believe that this suggestion would allow for others equally deficient as I to also understand your thoughts and ideals! I do suffer a touch of dyslexia, so I'm certain this is a frailty on my part.

Sincerely

Ruben

 

Guaranteed market crash date:
I guarantee that the market will crash: The day after I decide to spend some money on modern coins.

I will alert you all if I ever get stupid and do so.

 

Now there's the sort of opinion that's encouraging to a newcomer to the hobby with an interest in modern coins.

 

Could you possibly give a little more notice, please?

I have some coins I'd like to unload and 24 hours ain't gonna do it.

 

That is NOT a putdown on newcomers or their interest in collecting modern coins.
It IS a putdown on the crazy prices that so-called modern grade rarities cost.
Why would an MS-69 sell for (just making these up, but they are examples) say $15 and the same coin in MS-70 sell for $1,000?

The only reason is the silly collector's that post to the PCGS website.

If anyone here can tell the difference between an MS-69 Commemorative dollar from 2006 and the same coin in MS-70, my hat is off to you. I have looked at some of them, in fact, I have one a Leif Ericson MS-70 (PCI) and a Government issue one, same coin, and I can't tell the difference, except for the plastic holders.

In fact, I have seen so called MS-69 states quarters slabbed by NGC and PCGS that I wouldn't buy, for any amount of money. The slab is worth more in plastic than the coin.

So, all that I was saying is collect what you wish, but don't let the slabbing gods steer you in a direction that will make you sorry in the future.
An educated collector is the best collector, no matter what you collect.

 

I can tell the difference on PCGS, and NGC between 69 and 70. I can see it, but it ain't much! I agree with you on the crazyness of it.

 

perhaps my bi-focals prevent me from seeing the difference.

 

This sound a little more discouraging than the first statement. Indeed, the first one didn't bother me at all.

No one should be buying coins they don't understand or coins that others think they should buy. That means if you can't see the difference between PR-69 and PR-70 you should buy the cheaper one or neither. If you don't like moderns then don't buy moderns. The hobby is about having fun and most hobbiests don't need to worry about other concerns.

...but if you buy moderns I'd still like as much warning as possible. :wink:

 

There are always going to be newbies to the hobby, the mint will continue to make coins, and there will continue to be crackouts and regrades on currently slabbed material. Simply put, I think the answer is, no it won't.

 

This is a different discussion as to if a market for slabs will dry up. Slabs are never going away. But for what ever imperfections in slabs, having corporations who profit as 3rd party impartial arbitragers of coin authenticity and grade is helpful, if not critical to current markets and provide a key form of income for individuals who have dedicated their lives to the art and science of coin evaluation.

Slabs are sellable bytes of intellectual know how and expertise that a common collector can not hope to achieve if for no other reason than because they can not dedicate the years of practice that it would take to reach that level of expertise.

Does this save the hobby. Well, it probably does.

Ruben

 

I realize that there are 2 general markets that I characterize as legacy and modern. Now the legacy has endless breakout sets and series but within the modern coinage we are simply dealing with PR69/70 for proofs. MS69/70 for UNC and MS66+ for circulated coinage. That means life is so much simpler when there are only 5 grades that anyone has any interest in. That's why my hat's off to the legacy coin collectors/dealers as it takes at least 20 times more understanding of the market and grading to be successful there and I don't recommend eBay for that market.

So within the modern coinage keep in mind I only buy PCGS graded coins with no exceptions and I've had almost all of them and it doesn't take long to figure out who is indisputably the best. Since the modern coin market is on fire and there are thousands of new coin collectors each year that enter the modern coin market, particularly with the silver, gold and platinum eagles that eBay and Teletrade are beginning to shape the current coin values, good or bad. I've seen coins up one day and then crash but I've also seen nothing coins become stars. The slab market trades more like the stock market and the one thing I do know is that it is very hard to ever get a better deal from a dealer since they actually need to make a profit whereas on eBay, it is what it is. IMHO.

 

?????

 

You know, Mint State grade 66 and above for pocket change? Haven't you ever seen any? :whistle: