I wanted to test to see how accurate AI is getting in our field. I tried to get into a specific topic I have seen pop-up in the last year or so, the rise in prices of OGH and CAC coins even for Double Eagles and other gold coins that are largely bullion. I put this exact wording into the Gemini/Google search bar: "Can you talk about how gold coin prices have risen for bullion-like coins pre-1933 if they have the OGH (Original Green Holder) and CAC (Certified Acceptance Corp) designations ?" Here's what came back, a combination of really useful information....and some boilerplate filler. _________________ The market for pre-1933 U.S. gold coins has experienced a dramatic evolution. Historically, common-date $10 Eagles and $20 Double Eagles traded strictly as "bullion-like" coins, with their prices tightly tethered to the spot price of gold. However, when a coin combines a vintage PCGS Old Green Holder (OGH) with a Certified Acceptance Corp (CAC) sticker, it detaches from raw bullion behavior and behaves like a high-end rare collectible, commanding massive premiums. Bidders frequently pay substantial premiums for these double-certified pieces. The primary market dynamics driving the surge in prices for OGH + CAC pre-1933 gold coins trace back to specific structural factors: 1. The "Undergraded" Time Capsule Effect PCGS utilized the Old Green Holder primarily from 1990 to 1998. During this era, grading standards at third-party services were generally much stricter and more conservative than they are today. The Premium: Collectors know that a pre-1933 gold coin sitting in an OGH for thirty years is highly likely to be undergraded. If cracked out and resubmitted today, an OGH MS63 coin might easily grade as an MS64 or even MS65. The Safe Bet: Rather than cracking the coin out and risking damage, buyers happily pay a premium to own the coin as-is, treating it as a hidden treasure. 2. CAC Validation Prevents "Crack-Out" Extinction The major issue with OGH coins is that over the decades, coin dealers cracked the vast majority of them out of their holders to resubmit them for higher modern grades. The few OGHs that survived were often "problem" coins that couldn't actually qualify for a higher grade. Enter the CAC: When the Certified Acceptance Corp (CAC) evaluates an OGH coin and awards it a green sticker, it independently verifies that the coin is high-quality for the grade. The Ultimate Convergence: A green sticker on an OGH guarantees that the coin is genuinely high-end for the grade, confirming the exact "undergraded" status buyers look for. 3. The "In Crust We Trust" Movement Pre-1933 gold coins have a history of being dipped in chemicals or polished by dealers to make them bright and shiny. Over the last decade, the market has dramatically shifted away from flashy, altered coins toward "dirty," original gold surfaces—often called "original skin" or "crust". An OGH + CAC gold coin guarantees originality. Because the coin has been sealed in plastic since the 1990s and approved by CAC (which rejects cleaned or processed coins), buyers know they are purchasing a coin with untouched, uncleaned surfaces. Price Behavior: Bullion vs. Numismatic Split When the spot price of gold rises sharply, raw or standard-graded common-date pre-1933 coins often see their premiums melt away as they get traded purely for their metal weight. In contrast, OGH + CAC coins act as a separate asset class. While standard certified coins might carry a modest 5% to 15% premium over spot, an OGH + CAC coin in Mint State (MS63 to MS65) can easily command an additional 20% to 100%+ premium over an identically graded modern holder equivalent. Bidders aggressively compete for them at major auction houses like Heritage Auctions and GreatCollections because the market recognizes that the surviving population of untouched, strictly graded 19th-century gold is incredibly small.
Overall, I'd say it wasn't a bad primer on the topic. But I see some discrepancies: Earlier, it says that OGH coins are likely to be undergraded with MS-63's being regraded as 64 or even 65. But then later the AI is saying that most of the undegradeds got "cracked out" and what is left are "problem" coins. It is true that MOST of the low-hanging fruit have been picked but that's not to say that the leftovers, even if they can't CAC or are likely to be graded higher, are problem coins. On a stand-alone basis, they are probably OK/Strong for the grade. The same issue with "problem coins" remaining with CAC coins. CAC or no-CAC, the OGH coins are likely to be OK or strong for the grade. I'm not sure about the 100% premium for some OGH and CAC coins; maybe non-gold or a unique gold coin in a high-grade with price-insensitive buyers. But not for a piece that is essentially gold bullion. I don't think "massive" premiums for gold bullion coins is the right term but rather "sizeable" or something like that since we are dealing with premiums of 15-25% for the most part. For some coins like the DEs I track, I see premiums for MS-66 of about 25-30% (i.e., the 1908 NM).
I don't like the following, as it is clearly misleading . . . "The Ultimate Convergence: A green sticker on an OGH guarantees that the coin is genuinely high-end for the grade, confirming the exact "undergraded" status buyers look for." It completely glosses over the fact that many green beaned coins are simply acceptable for the assigned grade.
Yes, TC, great observation. That's where AI -- which as I understand it is simply scanning hundreds of webpages, Redditt posts, Coin Forum posts, etc. every second -- and then translates word patterns into new "text"....can get it wrong. It did not scan for posts discussing the differences in A, B, and C coins as CAC and JA talked about back when CAC started in 2008 or 2009. A's and B's can CAC; C's won't. Depends on the coin, too, I believe. A 1924 Saint "B" coin won't/shouldn't CAC...but a 1922 or rarer Saint will/might for a "B."
Are we ready to resurrect the idea that was behind CompuGrade yet? The tech. that comprised it the first time should be much better 40? Years later. Plus they can even throw in different colored beans for grading summaries dispensed by AI's whose coins have the best sales record. What could go wrong?
