"Reserve" is the title for this one and after looking at the coin distribution and price point I will definatly be buying at least one in this offering (provided I don't oversleep and let them sell out like the last set i wanted in on lol) Anyhoo.. anyone else thinking of taking a chance? https://vaultbox.com/series-info/reserve-2026/
I was thinking about getting in for one, call it a late additional birthday present to myself! Plenty of goodies to try for and the price point is not ridiculous.
I was keen to do this so ran the numbers through AI asking it to check Greysheet values , you would have better chances than the lotto but I'll pass as I'm not that lucky other than in love! If you love gambling and coins and don't mind the odds this would work for you as it must be pretty exciting opening the packages. Of course if you don't mind losing say $400 and can cope with the anticlimax of a black box, go for it! As an engineer I drive my wife nuts with looking at probabilities and she said what's better this or the lotto like Powerball? The answer is actually quite simple , this deal but it all boils down to personality and the urge to take a risk (gamble) . I occasionally enter lotteries because of the fantasy of winning millions of dollars. The math in this is simple: you give up the fantasy of an uncapped multi-million-dollar lottery prize in exchange for a guaranteed hard asset and a 1-in-133 chance at a four-figure key date. Most lottery tickets end up in the bin but at least you know you will win a prize every time with this. I'm not sure prize is the right word either. As a child I used to be taken to Church fetes / fairs and there was always a bottle stall where you had a raffle ticket and won a wrapped bottle. All the kids wanted a bottle of soda and most of the adults wanted to win alcohol. This is a more sophisticated version but ultimately everyone is a winner but maybe not in immediate capital appreciation. Here are the odds. Financial & Odds Summary Metric Figure / Estimate Total Tickets / Slabs 2,000 (411 Red Core + 1,589 Black Core) Ticket Price $535.00 Black Cores (~1,505 of 1,589 under $535): The vast majority (approx. 94.7%) are standard MS63–MS65 common-date Morgans (1887-O, 1890-O, 1921-S, 1900-O), circulated Walkers, modern minor mint errors, and common Buffalo nickels with typical wholesale values between $80 and $320. Red Cores (~205 of 411 under $535): Roughly 49.9% of the Red Core tier consists of mid-tier MS64/MS65 commemoratives, common $1/ $2.50 gold pieces, and lower-tier DMPL/CAC dollars trading between $300 and $510. Total Pool Impact: Out of the 2,000 total coins, approximately 1,710 coins (85.5%) will leave the buyer in a negative equity position relative to the $535 entry price. Odds of Winning Top 15 Major Hit: 15 in 2,000 = 1 in 133.3 (0.75%) Any Red Core (Premium Tier): 411 in 2,000 = 1 in 4.87 (20.55%) Any Black Core (Standard Tier): 1,589 in 2,000 = 1 in 1.26 (79.45%) Positive Return / Value $\ge \$535$: ~290 in 2,000 = ~1 in 6.9 (14.5%) Loss / Below Ticket Price ($<\$535$): ~1,710 in 2,000 = ~1 in 1.17 (85.5%) Valuation Breakdown by Tier Top 15 Hit List (~$48,500 total | Avg ~$3,233/coin) Anchored by heavy hitters including the 1811 G$5 Tall 5 PCGS MS63 (~$14,000), 1890-CC G$20 MS62 (~$8,500), 1934-S $1 MS63 (~$3,400), and key proofs/errors (1877 3CN PR63 CAC, 1999-W $10 Unfinished Die MS69, 1887/6 3CN PR66CAM CAC). Remaining Red Cores (~$204,500 total across 396 items | Avg ~$516/coin) Comprises 5-coin vintage proof sets (1938–1942), Carson City Morgan dollars (MS63–MS65), high-grade Classic Commemoratives (MS66–MS67), early Draped/Capped Bust silver, and gold type (Pan-Pac $1s, Liberty $2.50s, 2016-W Gold Mercurys). Black Cores (~$365,000 total across 1,589 items | Avg ~$230/coin) Dominated by high-volume common inventory used to absorb ticket volume: 59x 1921-S MS64 Morgans (~$150 ea), 37x 1890-O MS63 Morgans (~$110 ea), clusters of MS65 1881-S/1882-S/1900 Morgans (~$220–$250 ea), low-value off-center Lincoln errors, and common Barber/Standing Liberty type. Isolated winners (1909-S VDB VF35, 1892-CC, 1893 Morgans) prevent a pure floor distribution.
Personally I think the issue price is way too much for such a chance, but I hope for your sake that you get at least a $1,000 coin or better, preferably the Capped Bust gold chase coin.
I've bought in 7 times now "lost" twice (about $2-300 down each time so never a total loss) broke even 4 times and came out well ahead once.. side note each time was 2-3 coins purchased.. 5 on the rips lol.. I'll also add I was very happy with almost every coin (wasn't thrilled by aus chinese zodiacs 2oz x2 but that was also near the silver peak so 200 ea wasn't really a bad price)
"An expertly hand-crafted rip" LOL- I thought the word "rip" had different connotations, particularly when used in conjunction with the suffix "-off". Have fun, gamblers, and more power to ya, if that's your thing. But unless they "hand craft" a cheaper option, I will not be a VaultBox customer any time soon... or ever. There's limits to how much I'll pay for a pig in a poke. And if I ever had played that game, and scored, then I'd have the inconvenience of having to get the coin reholdered from out of those ghastly looking red-core slabs. But I guess that would be a nice problem to have, huh.
I can deal with the red and black cores, I like both.. the coin I want/need to get reholdered is my "trader bee's" monstrosity...
LOL. Yep, that is a bit of an abomination. Y’know, I hate it so much I that kinda like it, a little bit. Weird, huh? I reckon one could keep busy just by collecting wacky slabs for the plastic itself. In fact, I reckon a few people do.
I thought they were still trying to flog the ten-point grading scale? The headliners all have Sheldon grades! (Still not enough to drag me into gambling.)
I don't know that PCGS has dipped their toes in the 10-point scale yet, have they? I think it's only NGC-X.
Oh, right, I also forgot that both "top TPGs" were now, ahem, negotiating terms of their virtue with VaultBox.
My opinion is the same as ever - if I want to spend $535 on a coin, I'll pick the one I want. But to each their own, I guess. I wonder how much they pay per each to get 2000 graded and slabbed. I also wonder if anyone has tracked one of the prizes back to a previous sale, and what grade it had before getting the red core or whatever. Does this imply that you have a roughly 20% chance of breaking even? (396/2000 chance of an average $516 coin) Thanks for compiling the stats, interesting.
Not quite @KBBPLL —that’s the problem of using a group average. I ran the numbers again against Greysheet, and this is the result. (I will say: if the organizers weren’t completely transparent with the pop report, you couldn’t run this analysis at all.) The $516 average for those 396 Red Cores is pulled up by a handful of $700–$1,200 pieces. In reality, about half of the Red Cores (roughly 205 of them) trade between $300 and $510, putting you in the red. When you map the individual coin values across the entire 2,000-box pool: · 206 Red Cores (including the Top 15) clear $535. · 84 Black Cores (isolated keys like the '09-S VDB, '92-CC) clear $535. That gives you roughly 290 winners out of 2,000, or a 14.5% chance (about 1 in 7) of breaking even or better. The other 85.5% of boxes leave you losing. I can’t overemphasize enough that these odds are far better than scratch-offs or Powerball, so if you like trying your luck and love coins, this may well be for you. When I attend conventions in Vegas, I don’t really gamble—though I will play a single slot machine in full anticipation of losing, which may sound stupid! I play Wheel of Fortune purely for the bells, whistles, and the Wheel of fortune” announcement if you “win”. What I’m really buying is a small dopamine hit which gives me a legal “high”. Once my limited stake is gone, so am I—even on the rare occasion I hit a payout, I walk away immediately. I’d rather put my money into hard assets like coins; money isn't earned easily, so I don't care to throw it away recklessly. These mystery-box odds don’t work for me because it would take a massive potential win to get my blood pumping. The bulk of the tier prizes wouldn't fit my collection anyway, so there’s no real pull. If a headline prize were a piece I genuinely wanted and couldn't otherwise attain within my means, I might take a shot. With my Vegas routine, it’s just harmless entertainment with zero expectations. Now, if those casino slots were still spitting out nice uncirculated Morgan silver dollars like they used to in the old days, my attitude might change……..
I suppose the difference with Powerball etc is that you're spending a very small amount of money for a very small chance of winning a very large amount. With VaultBox, you're spending a large amount of money on a ~15% chance you'll win back your money or profit a small amount (relative to Powerball etc). Nobody is going to retire off of what they might win with VaultBox. From that perspective, I'd much rather buy a lottery ticket - there aren't many coins I would want that cost $2. Last time I gambled in Vegas I played blackjack and lost $50 in about 5 minutes. I thought, wow, I could have had a really nice dinner. Literally felt sick to my stomach. Never since.
