"Reserve" is the title for this one and after looking at the coin distribution and price point I will definatly be buying at least one in this offering (provided I don't oversleep and let them sell out like the last set i wanted in on lol) Anyhoo.. anyone else thinking of taking a chance? https://vaultbox.com/series-info/reserve-2026/
I was thinking about getting in for one, call it a late additional birthday present to myself! Plenty of goodies to try for and the price point is not ridiculous.
I was keen to do this so ran the numbers through AI asking it to check Greysheet values , you would have better chances than the lotto but I'll pass as I'm not that lucky other than in love! If you love gambling and coins and don't mind the odds this would work for you as it must be pretty exciting opening the packages. Of course if you don't mind losing say $400 and can cope with the anticlimax of a black box, go for it! As an engineer I drive my wife nuts with looking at probabilities and she said what's better this or the lotto like Powerball? The answer is actually quite simple , this deal but it all boils down to personality and the urge to take a risk (gamble) . I occasionally enter lotteries because of the fantasy of winning millions of dollars. The math in this is simple: you give up the fantasy of an uncapped multi-million-dollar lottery prize in exchange for a guaranteed hard asset and a 1-in-133 chance at a four-figure key date. Most lottery tickets end up in the bin but at least you know you will win a prize every time with this. I'm not sure prize is the right word either. As a child I used to be taken to Church fetes / fairs and there was always a bottle stall where you had a raffle ticket and won a wrapped bottle. All the kids wanted a bottle of soda and most of the adults wanted to win alcohol. This is a more sophisticated version but ultimately everyone is a winner but maybe not in immediate capital appreciation. Here are the odds. Financial & Odds Summary Metric Figure / Estimate Total Tickets / Slabs 2,000 (411 Red Core + 1,589 Black Core) Ticket Price $535.00 Black Cores (~1,505 of 1,589 under $535): The vast majority (approx. 94.7%) are standard MS63–MS65 common-date Morgans (1887-O, 1890-O, 1921-S, 1900-O), circulated Walkers, modern minor mint errors, and common Buffalo nickels with typical wholesale values between $80 and $320. Red Cores (~205 of 411 under $535): Roughly 49.9% of the Red Core tier consists of mid-tier MS64/MS65 commemoratives, common $1/ $2.50 gold pieces, and lower-tier DMPL/CAC dollars trading between $300 and $510. Total Pool Impact: Out of the 2,000 total coins, approximately 1,710 coins (85.5%) will leave the buyer in a negative equity position relative to the $535 entry price. Odds of Winning Top 15 Major Hit: 15 in 2,000 = 1 in 133.3 (0.75%) Any Red Core (Premium Tier): 411 in 2,000 = 1 in 4.87 (20.55%) Any Black Core (Standard Tier): 1,589 in 2,000 = 1 in 1.26 (79.45%) Positive Return / Value $\ge \$535$: ~290 in 2,000 = ~1 in 6.9 (14.5%) Loss / Below Ticket Price ($<\$535$): ~1,710 in 2,000 = ~1 in 1.17 (85.5%) Valuation Breakdown by Tier Top 15 Hit List (~$48,500 total | Avg ~$3,233/coin) Anchored by heavy hitters including the 1811 G$5 Tall 5 PCGS MS63 (~$14,000), 1890-CC G$20 MS62 (~$8,500), 1934-S $1 MS63 (~$3,400), and key proofs/errors (1877 3CN PR63 CAC, 1999-W $10 Unfinished Die MS69, 1887/6 3CN PR66CAM CAC). Remaining Red Cores (~$204,500 total across 396 items | Avg ~$516/coin) Comprises 5-coin vintage proof sets (1938–1942), Carson City Morgan dollars (MS63–MS65), high-grade Classic Commemoratives (MS66–MS67), early Draped/Capped Bust silver, and gold type (Pan-Pac $1s, Liberty $2.50s, 2016-W Gold Mercurys). Black Cores (~$365,000 total across 1,589 items | Avg ~$230/coin) Dominated by high-volume common inventory used to absorb ticket volume: 59x 1921-S MS64 Morgans (~$150 ea), 37x 1890-O MS63 Morgans (~$110 ea), clusters of MS65 1881-S/1882-S/1900 Morgans (~$220–$250 ea), low-value off-center Lincoln errors, and common Barber/Standing Liberty type. Isolated winners (1909-S VDB VF35, 1892-CC, 1893 Morgans) prevent a pure floor distribution.
