Uncirculated Mint Sets (Value vs Mintage)

Has anyone ever explained inflation and cost of living index to you?

 

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Lol. I feel like someone’s about to try.

 

The 2023 U.S. mint sets from Philadelphia and Denver.

 

The downward mintage trend continues for the uncirculated mint set. The key set was 2012, which has steadily declined in value with time. Its once low mintage is now high compared to recent years. The collector's universe is slowly losing interest in these sets, which doesn't bode well for the hobby. Here is a chart of mint set values versus mintage since 1999.

 

In my fifty years of collecting following the mintage figures hadn't given me much pause unless there was mention of as much such as in 1999 or, as pointed out 2012. It wasn't until the huge uptick in issue price from 2020 to 2021 on the silver proof sets that a closer examination became apparent. I would concur that it's alarming, when in twenty years time the figures have plummeted just shy of 1 million. Second, the current figures for 2023/24 are below that of 1959 at 187,000. However, as I'm one who always finds the positive in any situation. Currently, large numbers of collectors are abandoning the mint for their sets, many buying them for less in the secondary market. As as a result, I forsee sellers who buy in bulk reducing their orders rather than break even or take a loss. While collector's interest may not be as popular as it once was, it will climb again at some point. When it does, sets below 200,000 will likely exploded in value.

 

Those don't include Proof Sets, right ?

The State Quarter Program probably inflated the numbers in the early-2000's....I wonder what the mintages were like a decade earlier ?

 

This thread is for uncirculated mint sets only and includes only sets from 1999. I've got other threads for clad proof sets and silver proof sets.

 

I have doubts that coin collecting will continue with much gusto past the current generation. The hobby starts young, lags during the child rearing ages, and increases again in later years. Young collectors will typically start by finding coins from change and filling coin books. As folk's shop using credit/debit cards or on-line, change is becoming obsolete. You can even use cards in vending machines. The mintages of cents, nickels, dimes, and quarters will steadily decline as electronic money will become the norm. As change becomes passe, the young will not start collecting. Don't get me wrong, it won't happen overnight. It will die a slow death. Merry Christmas coin collectors

 

I've extended the uncirculated mint set dataset back to 1968. As a note, the 2021 and 2024 mint sets are still available for sale from the mint.

 

The 2026 uncirculated mint set from the US Mint.

 

The updated uncirculated mint set mintage vs market value from 1968 to 2026. The quick sellout of the 2025 set has led to a significant increase in market value. I'm not sure how long that elevated price will last. The US mint has significantly raised the price of the 2026 set from $33.25 to $124.50. It does include the 2026 cents minted at the Denver and Philadelphia mints, which may provide some collector interest. It has sold well in the first two weeks of sales despite the high price. The older sets continue to be dogs.

 

an interesting data point is that from 2005 to 2009 (I believe) they had a different finish from business strike coins (satin finish) - that rendered the circulating business strike coins as a separate issue and they are much harder to obtain in high grade than the satin finish issues

 

I only snagged 10 of the 2025 sets, should have bought more.

 

I remember buying the 2009 set for the 100th anniversary Lincolns. A little surprised they don't attract more interest, considering I haven't seen a 2009 cent in the wild for some time.

 

The four different 95% copper Lincoln cents in the 2019 mint set are among the lowest mintage in the entire Lincoln series. 784,614 each of the 4 different cents. I believe the only year with a lower mintage was the 1909 svdb.

 

I checked the AI about this and here is why it said

 

Then AI isn't so smart. Since it doesn't recognize that there were four different Lincoln cent designs.

 

I think the confusion is that @Jeffjay accidentally typed 2019 instead of 2009 in his reply to my post, and you used that date in your AI query. There are, in fact, four different 2009 reverse designs....

 

Oops. Not the first time I've made such a mistake and likely won't be the last. Thanks for mentioning it. Too late to edit.