One thing that boggles my mind is how the 1899P Morgan dollar doesn't command a monster premium in lower uncirculated grades even though the official mintage was only 330,000 coins minted. Yeah yeah, I've read that some try to paint an image that in 1900 they minted more with the same dies but Stacks and Bowers says probably not. Then there is the Pittman Act that probably destroyed half of those. I have 4 of them from AU53 through MS62, but it's absurd with that low a mintage they do not command a serious price for them, as compared to 1899S which had 8 times more coins minted. Another mystery!
I don't really have a good answer but I believe this was one of those years that a lot of bags came out in the 50s and 60s. Maybe that kept the price down?
Bowers Red Book says that while the mintage total may be in doubt (?), there were bags of 1899's released in the 1950's and in the West in 1962. 50,000-100,000 may have been released. While lots of MSD collectors are around, that is a decent supply to satiate demand. Obviously, if Mint State coins are plentiful, no need to bid up AUs.
What's really odd is that I see more AU 99's than I see in lesser condition. There isn't a huge difference in sales values between heavily circulated coins and MS until you get to MS63, and even then the delta is relatively small.....unlike other dates where conditional rarity is everything.
What AU ? Also, I have the 4th Edition of the MSD Red Book probably about 2010....maybe somebody can check the 7th Edition and see what they said about the coins only a few years ago.
I had to read this 10 times to understand where you are coming from. AU= Almost Uncirculated in this application, not gold. Then I read your screen name again....
@Barney McRae I understand what you’re saying but look at the 1899 in VF-20. It’s listed in my slightly older Red Book for $175.00 with a mintage of 330,000. For only 30,000 coins less the 1893-O is a $350.00. Coin in the same grade from the same book. And the 1895-O is listed at $325.00 with a mintage of 450,000 coins and a 1895-S has 400,000 minted with a value of $575.00. This tells me that some of these coins are harder to obtain in the same grade due to melting at various times. No record was kept of what dates and mint marks were melted. Since the 1899 has a lower mintage and a lower value I would believe less of them were melted than the higher mintage coins which are today, worth more money. It’s not always the mintage that sets the value. Other factors come into play like melting. After the latest run up in silver who knows, a 1964 or a 1964-D dime or quarter could be worth more than a rarer date.
You hit the nail on the head there with why with Morgan dollars especially, the values don't necessarily line up with how many of a given date/mintmark were minted. Some were minted and heavily circulated, thus MS/AU examples are hard to find; some with lower mintages sat in bags in a vault until the 1950s/1960s and thus most of them never circulated, so have lower values in average circulated condition. There were many years where they were minted in excess of actual demand and thus sat in the vault to be discovered many years later (this especially happened with a lot of Carson City minted dollars). A lot of low mintages thus have pretty high survival rates, where some with higher mintages can still be conditionally rare in higher condition. So you can't really rely solely on the mintage to determine the value of a given date/mintmark.
It's an interesting discussion for sure. For example, if every man, woman or child in the USA wanted a 1899P Morgan, it would be worth around $1,000 even in cirulated condition. That's strictly the math based on mintage, not taking into consideration those lost or melted.
What year is the latest (7th ? 8th ?) edition of the Bowers Morgan Silver Dollar Red Book ? It might have some useful commentary, though I would expect the experts on the series to have chimed in here or elsewhere on coin forums.
