Are lower grade numismatics keeping up? Will they catch up?

My un-scientific observation is that lower and mid-grade US 90 percent silver coins are not increasing in value relative to silver's value. Should the numismatic value be "on top of" the melt value, or should they now just be bullion? Some of these Morgans, etc., that were worth 40 or 50 percent more than their silver value are now valued at spot (or below!) Will they catch up eventually? If this has been discussed elsewhere, please point me to the thread. Thank you!

 

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Well... That's a question for the Magic 8-Ball..... Values rose so dramatically this last year that melt value will probably continue to be the value of most silver that isn't a key or semi-key date for the foreseeable future..... And then there's gold.....

 

I think silver will continue to rise in the near future, like this year. It will take longer for coins to catchup in value.

 

This thread got me thinking -- coinflation says that the silver value of a Morgan is around $61 today. I wonder what they are selling for on ebay?

I saw this: https://ebay.us/m/j9psuT

1884-CC Morgan Silver Dollar Gem Brilliant Uncirculated
Mint State -- listing as Buy It Now, free shipping, for $59.99

That sounds too good to be true. What am I missing?

 

Fake. Given that multiple are for sale, it could be an image of a real one and you get a fake one in an air tite capsule in the mail. A cursory look would show these are 3 to $400 coins and the seller has zero feedback so why waste time here?

 

This topic comes up from time to time now. Articles have been written on it. In the short term it is what it is. It's really not an issue and makes pricing some things easier. I think numismatic value will increase over these new higher melt values but will take time to catch up. I don't care if some of my lower value stuff is going up in value due to melt.
We have no idea what will be left after this most recent run up but we know the refiners were flooded with 90% and .999 to the point they stopped taking 90%. That will change eventually but it means a lot of lower value coins that existed last year, dont or won't exist anymore. Who knows how much got shipped to be melted?

There were millions of Morgans made but we have to remember the Pittman Act of 1918 melted nearly half the reported total mintage of the pre-1921s at that time. Now more are being melted. How it affects the market is anyones guess. Whenever silver hits new highs we lose more.

If silver hits $600 next month, imagine what people would be bringing in to melt? CC Morgans, commons, wouldn't matter. Anything silver would go to the pots. Except mine. We aren't there yet but we're well on our way.

 

It is too good to be true. Those Morgans no more saw Carson City than I seen the moon. Lots of people on Ebay these days that have no scruples. I won't even look at coins on that site anymore that aren't being offered by somebody that I know.

 

You sound like me. LOL

 

Silver closed at $79.61 an ounce according to Kitco. If you do the math the melt value of a Morgan at today’s close is $61.57. In my Red Book at the lowest grade of VF-20, it’s a $155 coin and my Red Book is 4 years old and we all know prices have gone up since 2022. In MS-60 the price in the same Red Book is $265.00, again the prices have risen.
At today’s prices In 1884-CC Morgan Dollar in Jim uncirculated condition is a $400 Coin minimum. Ask yourself, if coin inflation We know that’s based on the lowest value of its silver content. And this guy is selling a gym brilliant For under $60. That can only mean it’s fake. I don’t even look at coins on eBay because they sell so many fakes and there’s really no protection. It’s not worth my time. I need to protect myself first and that’s a good way to start, avoid coins on eBay.

 

Thanks, all.

FWIW, I do purchase lower cost coins on eBay, but only if the seller has lots of positive reviews. E.g., I see another Morgan for a reasonably price for sale by "Profile Coins and Collectibles", I can't say I've heard of them, but I see that the outfit has 78K reviews, and 99.9% positive. (Is this naive of me?)

 

Sad to think about. I suppose when so much Constitutional silver goes into the crucible every time there's a run, it gets more and more rare. The value of that which remains has to go up, right?

I was thinking the other day about how the change we used to carry around in our pockets was the real money -- the stuff in our wallets and the banks was actually valueless and just represented the coins.

 

That's why I find old currency interesting as well. In the late 1800s they had coin images on some bills and said how many silver dollars they were worth.

In the early 1900s you still had gold and silver certificates. Then they changed to smaller notes. In the 20s and 30s they were still promising that the notes could be redeemed by the bearer on demand. Then then they gradually changed the wording with the same look and weened us off the idea of the bills being associated with actual gold/silver coin without people noticing. In the 60s they finally did away with silver certs and sold off Morgans at face for the last time. And now here we are. At least the 2026 coins are cool looking.

 

The sudden jump in melt together with the fact that much of the lower grade (and even higher grade newer silver) is "common" and in high enough supply, meant that premiums disappeared. People were selling at melt and under melt since the numismatic premium had never been this high. If spot remains in this range for an extended time, premiums could return once the supply/demand equation readjusts.

 

Positive reviews have no bearing on Ebay. There are ways for negative reviews not to be published or counted, etc.
It's not a criteria that is to be trusted. The integrity is so low on Ebay I stopped buying coins there many years ago. I have bought other items,
but not coins or currency, etc.

 

Apparently, late last year, eBay instituted automated positive feedback for sellers if the buyer leaves no feedback within one week after shipping date. Doesn't give buyers much confidence in the feedback process. Mike

 

The only real protection is your own expertise (or a trusted expert) once your coin arrives and you have it in hand. eBay's return policy is actually quite good if you promptly return it, you will get a full refund. That's all I can say positively about that. If you get refunded, any negative comment gets automatically removed. There are sellers there that are very trustworthy, you just need to figure out who they are, and experience in buying from them is the best way to find out.

 

I am sure it's the same with silver, but a lot of bids for larger gold coins ($10 and $20) on the Grey Sheet has really flattened out. There is not much, if any, difference in the grades from EF-40 up to and including MS-63. Why would one buy an EF-40 if you can get a Mint State piece for almost the same money?

I bought this 1900 $5 gold piece at a show, which is graded MS-63 in a somewhat older NGC holder. In the old days this would have been a crack-out candidate for the next grade up, but it makes no sense now. You would spend at least $50 on shipping and to get a $35 increase in the bid if it came back MS-64. Very high bullion prices have done a number on less than MS-65, common date "older" gold coins.

 

Well I don't think a lot of Morgans will end up being melted. I know my local shop will still sell them at spot plus a small fee. I think it kind of depends on the coin itself. Now the couple of silver quarters I sold them might end up being melted. As for my gold coins - all of them I bought (except for 1) was bought around spot plus a small fee and all were AU coins(PCGS graded). I sold them all and more than doubled my money at basically spot price. I don't think these coins will end up melted but just sold again near spot plus a fee.

What gets me are those buy gold commercials. Some of those places charge high fees for common date common grade gold coins. I can go buy at local shop cheaper.

 

Sorry, but I must disagree with you on that. Coin dealers have to make money to stay in business. Coin dealers all across the nation have been buying like crazy because people are selling and the price is rising. I would tend to think that a smart coin dealer Would go through the coins that he has purchased. Then they would save the coins that have more potential than just scrap pricing. Every denomination of silver coinage and gold coins has common dates. Those will be the dates that get melted and I think it’ll be a lot of them to make up for how much they put out. Then you have to add in the sudden price drop that occurred in January 2026. Somebody’s gotta be losing money that’s not Going to be the coin dealer. You must remember silver was around $30 an ounce and one year it went up to $120 an ounce. Now it’s back down to $80 an ounce so how can anyone make money with a $40 difference? Dealers have to be smart or they’ll be out of business. Nice that you made out well though.

 

That may be true for some dealers - but not my local dealer. I have asked him how he does it - pretty simple he says, we sell large volumes over the course of a year. So all about the volume - he says people are always buying and selling. He gave me an example but way too much typing for this late. So yeah a crash will wipe out some dealers. And smelting a bunch of coins will add another 5 to 15 percent cost to what they already have into the coins.

To me based on your logic these coins I sold should have already been melted. And yes some dealers will lose money and it may put some out of business. It also seems to me someone posted about in the early 1980's gold plummeted and it put a bunch of dealers out of business. I would not sell even scrap silver to a dealer at a who offered a really low price just to play it safe.