Threats to our hobby.....

1/ demand is 1000X higher then supply. Too MANY collectors vs avaliable material.
2/ Fees charged by auction houses. In the 1980s fees were 5% on average, today 22-25%
3/ precious metal prices
4/ High demand esp. from China/ India/ Japan
5/ Cultural Property and all that nonsense
6/ Prices are bonkers, hammer results keep breaking records, again demand exceeds supply.
7/ Since coins are worlds best investment, speculators are ruining it for collectors. Many collect just for making fast buck.
8/ Modern coins are bland, awfull, thus everyone wants the classical material 670BC -1969. The "colored superman kitch doesn't arouse my interest or others.
9/ The VAT and other customs fees are a killer.
10/ Average collectors like me and most others cannot compete with the deep pocketed "elite"
What are your thoughts?

 

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Lot descriptions that sound like Keats was the cataloger.

 

Paramount auctions used to be really good at color descriptions, made their coins delicious....

 

Everybody wants that coin with proof that it is better than yours. Collecting has become too competitive. I'm satisfied with uniform eye appeal across a set or series.

 

I think 3rd party grading has been bad for hobby. People go gaga over a coin graded MS-63 Ch. UNC. Yet, that same coin would end up in EU/ UK/ Swiss auction raw graded Vorz./ Stempelglanz (EF-MS) and hammer for much less $$$.
The US slabbers are very liberal in grading, I have seen a CNG graded "EF" coin, reappear in Heritage event, now graded MS-65! And of course hammer for double. So, overgrading can be listed too

 

I've seen the same arguments from the sports card niche, and I'm just not convinced. People do get a buzz from seeing their collections rise in value, and third-party graders (TPGs) are bound to spring up as hobbies become popular. For example, I have heard that greed has destroyed the baseball card hobby, but I remember how popular the Beckett price guide magazine was back in the late '80s and early '90s. People turn these hobbies into purity tests when they always were largely about value. This very same debate springs up in many hobbies.

* Actually, the sports card hobby has issues with trimming and allegations of shill bidding, so actual law-breaking is a threat in any hobby.

 

I keep hearing that with most people not wanting cash, that the hobby would become obsolete. I for one love getting paid in cash, also use cash 100%. Never leave the house without a couple of hundreds in my pocket.
I think, its the opposite, people collect fossils, well they went extinct millions of years ago. People are not excited about modern cars, but will pay 900K for a 67 L-68 corvette, 9M for a L-88 67 vette, 700K for a 58 like mine.
People love collecting, esp. beautifull historical artifacts. In militaria I saw on youtube, collectors go gaga for only German WW2 memorabilia, from the beautifull designed uniforms, decorations, weapons. Coinage that everybody wants is the early electrum, gold aurei, gold, silver in pristine quality. Collectors love owning pieces of history. Saying goes...."he who has the most toys won" They that do not have hobbies loose out.

 

3rd party grading is bad for the hobby.
Look at what grading did to sports card collectibles. It's not a hobby for kids anymore, it is a business for adult geeks. That's no fun.

 

1/4/6) You're saying demand is increasing. Isn't that a good thing? Increased demand means prices go up. I collect because I enjoy it, but it is an investment. No way would I invest so much money into it if I thought when I'd sell I'd get the same or less.

2) Highly annoying as it looks like greed, but not really a threat to our hobby. Buyers deduct the BP from their bid and sellers get a higher percentage of hammer. It's a wash.

3) Yes, hurting the hobby. I started in the 80's and I used to see kids putting together sets of Walker 50c and they'd pay $4-$5 each. Morgan/Peace $1 were $7-$9 each. A kid on an allowance was able to get a bunch of cool coins including new US Mint products. Today there is $25 in silver in the 50c, $50 in the $1, and a proof Silver Eagle from the mint will cost you a kidney. Even super common Roosevelt 10c have $5 in silver in them. No way a kid can enter the hobby and get a bunch of cool coins on a typical allowance.

5) Basically meaningless. My experience with "cultural property" in EU countries is that the item may not be exported from one country, but has free ability to be moved to another EU country that doesn't have the restriction. I had one dealer literally tell me that he couldn't send me the item from his country as it was restricted, but not to worry as he goes next door (another country) once a month to mail from there.

7) This isn't 1989 Wall Street. I doubt there are a lot of speculators pumping this market.

8) I agree moderns are awful, but there is clearly a large segment of the market that likes them. Every mint is producing this garbage, but it clearly sells.

9) It just changes what and where you buy. These fees have always been there.

10) I think everyone feels that was in every hobby. However, we're not competing with the "elites" for most coins. We're not two billionaires going after the 1804 $1. We're competing with people of similar means.

I believe the TPG are harming the hobby.

• While they did a lot of good helping remove counterfeits and problem coins from being sold as genuine and pristine, the fact that now every coin "needs to be in a slab" is infuriating.
• The vast majority of collectors can't grade.
• Many (most?) dealers aren't good at grading.
• The TPG have become greedy with pricing.
• The TPG don't stand behind their guarantees like they used to.
• Their quality of graders has clearly worsened over the years.
• And there are literally millions of modern coins in slabs that never should have been there. Do we really need 25 MILLION Silver Eagles professionally graded?

 

TPG's on anything less than modern coins is hit and miss. I recently had a coin graded AU details "scratched on obverse" that I certainly never saw and you can only see it in certain light and angles. In the real world it would be a bag mark on a raw coin. Similarly another had a tiny nick on the flank of a horse on a crown sized 38 mm coin and again details "scratched". It took me a while to find the blemish with a loupe. To pay the equivalent of $60 in my currency to have a coin condemned is a waste of three or four months and a waste of of my time and money. It's so obvious that many people collect the label and the plastic on "one upmanship" basis and that it is causing problems.
In contrast, I once sold a collection of 18th Century pattern shillings because of unexpected circumstances and the grades I bought at were decimated by the dealers including the outfit I bought most of them from. My choice uncirculated became extremely fine and the drop in value was huge and more than dealers legitimate mark ups. I have no issues with people making profit and if they can buy for 100 and sell for 500 because of their knowledge against my ignorance good luck to them. My issue is manipulating grades when it suits them to do so. In this scenario I believe the TPG's offer consistency but for anything earlier than say 1700 its a lotto. In all of these situations I was grading to preserve provenance and not have the coin elevated or destroyed by someones opinion. I dare say I would have been happy if the coins came back with unrealistic good grades and that has happened but not when it looks as if the grader is going out of their way to find issues.
I'll post some of my "details" coins when I have a chance.
I have bought some beautiful 17th Century "cleaned" coins at bottom basement prices because of the plastic label. What sensible person considers that a coin dug from the ground more than 400 years ago hasn't been cleaned or the latest idiocy is "brushed" even when it shows toning. Brushed is not a grade, simply a negative descriptor. Fortunately many of my early hammered coins are "brushed" as I wouldn't have bought them in the clods of dirt they came out of the ground in. You cannot put labels for modern coins on early coins and that says a lot about the TPG infatuation with their bread and butter which is modern USA issues.
There's a lot of "Emperors New Cloths" in this acceleration of "details" and new grading terms and none of it benefits the collector and I am sure is only there to abrogate the worthless warranties of the TPG companies.

 

Something I don't like is the disappearance of actual brick and mortar buildings. I see a lot sold on eBay with very few real coin shops around me. I miss the days of digging through piles of coins and picking out what I like in person. I like visiting the few shops in Chicago but miss them when I go home to Maine. I only know of two and both are a good drive out.

 

TPGs became bad for the hobby when they were labeled "Corporation". Whenever I encounter any concern with "Corporation" in its name, I instinctively protect my wallet.

 

Agreed! You are always better to buy, win coins from EU/ UK auctions. Their accurately graded coins that are good EF or near MS = TPG MS-65/66/67. And thus are way cheaper.

 

You guys keep buying the expensive gold and silver coins, it makes it cheaper to purchase my bronze error coins. I do agree that the hobby is far different today than a decade ago. I believe it's due to the bullion resellers purchasing all the coins at a premium and then duping people into paying astronomical prices as a "good" investment.

 

I like the TPGs because I do not have a lot of confidence in my grading skills nor do I have strong skills in proving whether or not a coin is genuine. So for me it's about instilling confidence that the TPG will be correct most of the time.

I do agree that grading modern coins is silly but since I don't buy them I don't really care, other than the fact that a lot of the TPG time is used to grade these modern issues, ASEs etc. leading to waiting months for other coins to be graded.

I also agree that the auction houses commissions have gotten crazy. As a resident of NY I not only pay a healthy price due to commissions from Stacks and Heritage, but I also get dunned for sales tax at 8.75% plus shipping costs on which I also pay sales tax. All these charges add about 40% to the hammer price. At least some auctions like Great Collections ~12.5% and Davisson's 0% are much more reasonable.

I am fortunate that most of my numismatic itches have been scratched and there are not a lot of coins or paper that I "need" to complete suites/sets.

 

Something you didn't mention that I think has a major impact is dilution of collectors. There's a group of people that will desire to collect something. Now it all depends on what your outlook is. Do you want the value of your collection to drop so you can easily acquire more or do you want the value of your collection to steadily increase as a decent investment over time? How many ways can that pie be sliced?

Whether it's collecting or investing, it seems that there has become so many avenues for people to get passionate about that it spreads everyone out. Think what bitcoin could be if there wasn't a thousand other cryptos people have latched on to as being the next big thing. Think how much of a boost stocks or precious metals would get if crypto didn't exist at all. That's they way it was a couple decades ago. Now all those $$ funnel into that on the side too and the stock markets still continue skyward. What's the next new gimmick?

I think the government should be thrilled that people have found so many ways to tie up cash out of the system. People spend a fortune on BTC and then "hodl" forever because you just have to and the cash disappears out of the system, keeping inflation depressed. But I digress.

Main point was sports cards/Pokemon craze is absolutely insane right now. Watching people fork over suitcases of cash for a graded Pokemon card that can be infinitely printed or faked seems crazy. But people are all about it. There's more crews robbing Pokemon card stores than banks nowadays.

Just saw a video with Kevin O'Leary and he had some coveted card with the NBA man logos on it from allegedly game used jerseys of Joran, Lebron, and Kolbe. Graded 10. 1 of 1 in the world. And then he or somebody had Tiffany's surround the case with diamonds and rubies and put it on a diamond necklace chain. The guy wore it to some awards show! Says it's worth $30 million at auction but may be worth $100 million eventually but "he'd never sell it." Ok well, it's cool. I wouldn't give $1k for that card but people are bonkers over rare sportscards even though there's new 1 of 1s coming out every year from every company! As old players get further in retirement, new people come up and now everybody is focused on them.

It's not the common 80s cards that have went up in value. It's all the new 1 of 1 stuff that people spend insane amounts buying or chasing in box breaks. Which has now led us to the whole Vaultbox concept and it's success. We can't argue Vaultbox has done well. The market supports a release every month it seems.

Some people only collect watches worth millions. Some collect cars. I guess there's enough people and cash in the world to support it all but eventually it seems like everything is sort of in a ponzi scheme. If it doesn't consolidate, there's no way everything can keep going up indefintiely unless population continues growing as it has. Which it won't, becasue one thing people have stopped collecting is kids for the most part. You also have to have societies that can maintain enough disposable income to entertain collecting at all. I hate to be a pessimist but that could be going away if AI replaces half of the jobs that are remaining.

 

Here is a details coin that caused me some consternation. When I bought it I was attracted by the toning and decent grade. I put together a 1821 year set and decided in a uncharacteristic moment it would be fun to grade the set. Big mistake.
This was the worst one. You have to look some for the scratch because it was made in antiquity possibly 200 years age and it has been toned over so not highly visible unless you really look for it.
The last image is what it looks like in the hand before being highly magnfied.
I still like the coin and find it attractive but learnt a lesson as nothing will ever go to a grader again before a microscopic evaluation. The reality is that the details grade will put a high percentage of buyers off buying it when inevitably it is sold online and the grade has dropped the value by around $500.

 

Thankfully, the submission of moderns does not have any material affect on the turnaround times for classic coins. They are graded by a different group of graders.

And for those who pay a premium for a TPG graded modern, you should know that they will literally hire people with zero experience with coins and train them to grade moderns. And it's a "one and done" grading experience. That slabbed modern you paid a premium for could literally have been graded by a single person who was working at a Walmart two weeks earlier and never collected coins a day in their life.

 

Two other problems are the disappearance of coins from circulation. Youngsters don’t see coins and don’t get interested in them.

The second problem is the high prices the U.S. mint is charging for everything. There used to be “young collectors’ sets” and smaller medals which were priced within YN budgets. Now there is not much of anything. The mint has become overly greedy in my opinion.

 

You bring up some very good points, things I hadn't even considered, I guess mainly because I don't collect graded coins. I've got a handful that I bought because they were marked down, way down. i.e., "dirt cheap". That's me. I understand your statement that I quoted above. But, that does not apply to me. I could care less what a coin I have is going to sell for in the future. I am truly a "hobby collector". I don't play golf, I don't bowl. Coin collecting is my hobby. If I played golf, I would not expect for there to be more money in my pocket after I played a game of golf. It would cost me money to play, and my enjoyment would be my reward. I look at coin collecting the same way. I collect Coins that I like, or want to complete a collection or set. I will not sell unless times got hard and I was forced to, to put food on the table, etc. So, my "reward" is having it in my collection. Now, my wife would totally agree with you. She would sell it as fast as possible, for as much as she could get, because she had zero interest in coin collecting. Not disagreeing with you, except to point out that I am "one of a kind", I guess.

Yes Sir, as always, you are right again. And, this time, I'm really sorry that you are.